July 4th, 2015
It was a busy week in real life, with the July Preview, Canada Day, and July 4th holidays messing with schedules. Because of that, the home market numbers were late this week. However, this week's numbers will be up in the next two days, so it was a very short disruption. That said, there's not much to talk about when it comes to new releases on the home video sales charts for the week ending June 14. Sure, The Kingsman: Secret Service earned first place on the home market chart, but there was only one other new release in the top five and only a few others in the top 30. The number one release of the week sold 591,000 units and generated $10.29 million in consumer spending. This includes an opening week Blu-ray share of 51%. Anything above 50% is worth celebrating; however, the overall numbers are still lower than anticipated.
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June 22nd, 2015
It was a busy week on the home market, sort of. There were plenty of new releases on the video chart, with new releases earning five of the top six spots. However, the number one film, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water wasn't a major hit, selling 584,000 units / $11.52 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 47%, which is really good for an animated film aimed at kids. Overall, this isn't a bad start, but I was really hoping for more. Its box office numbers were much better than expected, plus it was a great movie, but its home market debut is only good.
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June 3rd, 2015
Welcome to the column formerly known as the DVD and Blu-ray release report! In response to the changing home market landscape, we have renamed it the Home Market Release Report, and will now be including Video-on-Demand releases. It was a bad week to try and change the format, as there were a ton of great releases contending for Pick of the Week. Most of these contenders are TV on DVD releases, including Parks & Recreation: Season 7. There is also one limited release, Spring on Blu-ray, and one first-run releases, The SpongeBob Movie: A Sponge Out of Water on 3D Combo Pack. It was a close race, but I choose SpongeBob in the end.
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March 18th, 2015
Cinderella led the way on the international box office, but it can't be described as a Cinderella opening, as every one expected it to earn first place. The film pulled in $62.4 million in 31 markets during its first weekend of release. This includes $25.01 million during its first weekend in China, which was easily enough for first place. It also earned first place in Russia with $2.62 million on 1,550 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.06 million. The film placed first in Mexico ($5 million) and Italy ($4.6 million). It is still too early to tell where it will finish, but this is a strong start. By this time next week, it will likely have pulled in enough to cover its entire production budget.
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March 12th, 2015
Jupiter Ascending returned to the international chart in first place with $25.3 million in 53 markets for a month-long total of $107.0 million internationally. This includes a first place, $23.08 million debut on 7,028 screens in China. If the film can have even middling legs in China, it will overtake its production budget on the global box office. However, it needed to make twice that to break even.
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February 19th, 2015
Fifty Shades of Grey dominated the international box office with an opening weekend of $158 million in 58 markets over the weekend for a total opening of $173.56 million. Worldwide, the film took $258.73 million during its opening weekend, which puts it just behind Taken 3 for the year. It became the biggest hit shortly after the weekend ended. The film's biggest market was in the U.K., where it made $20.90 million in 586 theaters. This is better than it opened with here, relative to the size of the two markets, so we can blame the U.K. for the success of this film. It also did incredibly well in Germany ($15.2 million on 741 screens); France ($12 million on 785); and Russia ($10.68 million on 1,105). Obviously the film is going to be turned into a franchise.
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February 18th, 2015
As expected, Fifty Shades of Grey dominated the weekend box office, while Kingsman: The Secret Service was strong in its own way. Overall, the box office earned $214 million over the three-day weekend and $247 million including Monday. Its three-day number is 41% more than last weekend. It is also 21% more than the same weekend last year. The four-day box office was 19% higher than the same weekend last year. 2015 has now opened up a 6.0% lead over 2014 at $1.45 billion to $1.37 billion.
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February 13th, 2015
Fifty Shades of Grey will win the weekend box office race and then aliens will come down to Earth and eliminate us as a species. Okay, that second part is just wishful thinking on my part. Kingsman: The Secret Service will open in a distant second place, despite earning reviews that are really good, for this time of year. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water will fit somewhere in-between the two new releases. Last year, The LEGO Movie remained in first place with $49.85 million. Fifty Shades of Grey will crush that figure, leading 2015 to an easy victory.
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February 13th, 2015
Jupiter Ascending earned first place on the international chart with $32.5 million. At first glance, this doesn't seem too bad for an opening weekend on the international chart, except the film was playing in 65 markets, so it doesn't have a lot of room to grow. Its biggest market was Russia, where it earned first place with $4.97 million on 1,900 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fourth place in South Korea with $1.67 million on 561 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.03 million.
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February 9th, 2015
As expected, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way at the box office; however, it did so in a much more explosive way. In fact, its opening was in the top five for February releases. The other two new releases, Jupiter Ascending and Seventh Son, did as well as expected, more or less, but that's not really a good thing. The overall weekend box office was $152 million, which was 51% more than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2015 actually came out ahead, albeit by 0.3% margin. This is less than ticket price inflation, so fewer tickets were sold, but I don't really care. Considering I thought 2015 would lose by close to $20 million, I will take any victory and celebrate it. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled ahead of 2014 by nearly $100 million at $1.17 billion to $1.08 billion. Again, it is too soon to judge how well 2015 will do, but being ahead by 8.8% is still worth noting.
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February 8th, 2015
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is wiping out the competition this weekend with a dramatic $56 million debut, enough to give it the 5th biggest weeked in February, with a chance of 4th place if it does well today. After the success of The LEGO Movie this weekend last year, there’s a good bet we’ll be seeing the first weekend in February becoming a regular landing spot for animated films. (Perhaps The Nut Job 2 will move back a few weeks next year in response?)
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February 5th, 2015
We should have a new film to top the chart, finally, as The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water looks to take top spot, although if the more pessimistic analysts are correct, American Sniper could be close behind. Jupiter Ascending is looking for a $20 million opening, so if it can surprise analysts just a little it will compete for second place. Meanwhile, Seventh Son should be happy with a spot in the top five. It will get there, but mainly due to the lack of depth at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The LEGO Movie, which earned nearly $70 million. There's a chance the top three films won't earn that much this year. Even if all three wide releases top expectations, 2015 will still have trouble matching last year's box office.
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February 1st, 2015
It was a record-breaking January thanks entirely to American Sniper, which set records, both during its limited release run and especially when it expanded wide. There were a couple of other films that did well, but for the most part, it was a typical January. The question is, will American Sniper boost the overall box office, which would help February, or will its effects fade as it does? There are ten wide releases in February; there are a few films that may or may not open in the top ten. Of these, there are only two that have a real shot at true box office success. The biggest film in terms of buzz is Fifty Shades of Grey, which looks so, so bad. Personally, I would rather watch The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water a hundred times than sit through just the trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey. If Fifty Shades of Grey becomes the biggest hit of the month, it will mrean the end of civilization. Because. I. Will. End. Civilization. Last February was mostly mediocre, except for The LEGO Movie which was a huge early year hit. There's no chance any film opening this month will match The LEGO Movie; the top two films likely won't match The LEGO Movie. Because of this, 2015 will need to rely on depth to come out ahead. I'm not sure how likely that will be.
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January 29th, 2015
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and Jupiter Ascending are the two bigger releases next weekend and some think the two films will be in a close race for first place. I think SpongeBob has the distinct advantage and as such it is the target film in this week's week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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