February 1st, 2018
The Greatest Showman’s box office life has almost mirrored that of a cliché Broadway musical. Before release, no one believed in its dreams: an $84 million circus musical starring Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron that was mocked by the bullies on film Twitter. It even had its darkest moment when it debuted at #4 with just $8.8 million, a definite sign of a total bomb. But then the rallying moment, as the film defied the odds and just kind of stuck around at #4 (and, on one weekend, #5) for 5 weeks straight, each weekend making more than its opening. Now the film’s soundtrack has reached #1 on the Billboard Top 100 albums, #1 on iTunes, and has over 200 million plays on Spotify. Two of the songs (“This is Me” and “Rewrite the Stars”) have been listened to over 50 million times each on Spotify (in comparison, the Spanish version of “Remember Me” from Coco has been listened to 12 million times). The film has earned a Golden Globe for Best Song and an Academy Award nomination for the same song. And, of course, it has shockingly earned over $100 million domestically. It currently stands at $128.2 million, which makes it the 15th-highest-grossing musical of all time, and it will climb higher on that list.
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April 26th, 2017
The winners of our Forget About It contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Unforgettable’s opening weekend were...
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April 25th, 2017
We are entering the worst time of year for the home market. The number of Oscar contenders have nearly dried up and there are more bombs than box office hits. As for the best of the new releases, The Criterion Collection release for Tampopo is the best and the only real choice for Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, the Mean Dreams DVD earns Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release of the week.
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April 24th, 2017
La La Land was one of the best-reviewed films of the year and inarguably the biggest player during Awards Season. In fact, it earning 14 Oscar Nominations, tying the record previously set by All About Eve and Titanic. However, this caused a bit of a backlash against the film. Is the film as good as its Awards Season run would indicate? Or did it only do as well as it did, because it was practically designed to sway Oscar voters?
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April 13th, 2017
April is a mess. When I starting writing the April preview I identified nine films that I was not 100% sure were going to open truly wide. While writing the preview, one was pulled from the schedule and since then, two were downgraded to semi-wide or lower. Next weekend, Born in China is opening semi-wide, The Promise is right on the razor’s edge between semi-wide and truly wide, while we still don’t have an estimate for Free Fire. This leaves Unforgettable as the only confirmed truly wide release of the week. Because of this, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Unforgettable.
Our April Fools contests continue this week. Two of our winners will win La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, while one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release. The Blu-ray Combo Pack doesn’t come out until the 25th, but the film is already out on Video on Demand.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be a potential winner of La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 13th, 2017
The winners of our Smurf to the Smurf contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Smurfs: The Lost Village’s opening weekend were...
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April 12th, 2017
It is another shallow week on the home market. There are a number of Oscar-contenders on this week’s list, but the quality quickly drops off from that point. A couple of releases are contenders for Pick of the Week, but it is mostly filler. The best of this week’s list was Hidden Figures on Blu-ray and it is the Pick of the Week.
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March 8th, 2017
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Logan dominated the international box office chart with $152.7 million in 81 markets for a worldwide opening of $240.9 million. This is almost twice as much as the film cost to make, so it has nearly paid for its entire production budget during the film’s opening weekend. Assuming it has any legs, it will break even before it reaches the home market. China was the biggest single market, as it earned $45.60 million over the weekend for a total opening of $46.38 million, including Thursday previews. The U.K. was well back with an opening of $11.48 million in 602 theaters. Up next is Brazil, which earned $8.2 million, while the film had a total opening of $8.16 million on 954 screens in South Korea, while it earned $8.02 million on 1,200 screens in Russia. The film doesn’t open in Japan until June and it could have over $500 million worldwide by then.
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March 7th, 2017
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Logan was the only film in the $10,000 club with an average of $21,717.
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March 1st, 2017
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My Life as a Zucchini topped the per theater chart with an average of $14,529 in two theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Get Out, which earned an average of $12,002.
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February 27th, 2017
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Oscar night turned out to be... interesting at the end. “Interesting” as in “May you live in interesting times.” The big winner of the night was chaos, as there was a mistake with the Best Picture category. (On a side note, I really hope this ends the conspiracy theory that Marisa Tomei didn’t earn her Oscar. Some think her name was announced by accident and they didn’t bother to correct the mistake. They would have obviously corrected the mistake.) On a serious note, Moonlight’s win is amazing. It has likely the lowest budget of the nine Best Picture Nominees and at the moment the lowest box office. That could change with its three wins last night. Additionally, all three wins came from high prestige categories, compared to just two for La La Land. However, La La Land won six Oscars overall, two high prestige, both music categories, and two technical awards, so it too could be seen as the big winner of the night.
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February 26th, 2017
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It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
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February 26th, 2017
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If you took a bet a year ago that the Oscar weekend box office would be dominated by a movie with an A- CinemaScore, and a score of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, you probably wouldn’t get great odds. If you’d included the stipulation that the film would be a horror movie written and directed by Jordan Peele, your winnings would set you up for retirement. For that is what we have this morning: Get Out will easily top the chart this weekend, with Universal estimating a weekend around $30.5 million.
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February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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February 24th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the final category: Best Picture. It is not a competitive category with an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then rest have maybe a combined 2% chance of winning.
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February 23rd, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director. It is not a particularly competitive category with a favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else.
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February 23rd, 2017
Fifty Shades Darker remained in first place on the international chart with $44.5 million on 9,600 screens in 59 markets for totals of $187.2 million internationally and $276.2 million worldwide. The film had no major openings this past weekend, and won’t until it opens in Japan in June. The film’s best market over the weekend was Germany, where it earned $6.1 million on 736 screens for a total of $21.2 million after two weeks of release.
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February 23rd, 2017
Kedi remained in first place with an average of $11,418 in seven theaters. It is doing quite well for a documentary. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Chapter and Verse with $10,928 in its lone theater.
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February 22nd, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. At one time, La La Land looked to be the favorite, but that no longer seems to be the case.
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February 19th, 2017
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The Writers Guild of America are the late major guild group to announce winners before the Oscars. We could see a small change in Oscar chances with a couple of winners tonight.
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February 17th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Leading Actress, which is not competitive. There’s an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else.
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February 16th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Leading Actor, which is a three-way race this year. This makes it one of the most competitive categories we will be talking about.
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February 15th, 2017
Kedi became the first movie released in 2017 to hit the $40,000 mark on the per theater chart earning $40,103 in its lone theater. A United Kingdom was next with an average of $16,628 in four theaters. This is enough to suggest it will expand, but not enough to think it will earn a significant measure of mainstream success. The only other two films in the $10,000 club were the top two films on the overall weekend chart. The Lego Batman Movie earned an average of $12,966, putting it just ahead of Fifty Shades Darker, which earned an average of $12,563.
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February 12th, 2017
The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were very few surprises to talk about. La La Land again won the most awards with five, while only two other films, Lion and Manchester by the Sea, earned more than one award. They each won two.
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February 9th, 2017
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Kung Fu Yoga bombed in India, but that didn’t stop it from earning first place on the international chart with $51.4 million over the weekend for an international total of $180 million. Nearly all of this came from China, where it earned $50.2 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $179.71 million.
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February 8th, 2017
It was a busy weekend on top of the theater average chart, at least for this time of year, with three films earning averages over more than $10,000. Chapter and Verse led the way with $32,713 in its lone theater. I Am Not Your Negro had an arguably better start earning an average $15,962 while playing in 43 theaters. That’s amazing for a documentary. Another documentary, Mr. Gaga, was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,677 in two theaters over the weekend and an average of $17,316 from Wednesday through Sunday. The Lure didn’t get to $10,000 over the weekend pulling in $7,370 over that time, but it earned $10,676 from Wednesday through Sunday.
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February 7th, 2017
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As expected, Split earned first place over the weekend with $14.42 million. That’s not bad for Super Bowl weekend. In fact, the overall depth was better than expected, not that you could tell from the week-over-week decline. The overall box office fell 31% to just $98 million. However, this was still 2.5% better than the same weekend last year. That’s a surprise victory. Granted, 2017 is still behind 2016 by 5.1% at $1.06 billion to $1.12 billion, but every little victory helps.
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February 5th, 2017
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The last of the Directors Guild of America awards were handed out over the weekend in what was likely a warm venue. On the other hand, I’m dealing with a snow storm that hasn’t really stopped in three days and power outages. Joy. Fortunately, there’s not much to talk about. All three theatrical categories went as expected with La La Land winning yet again.
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February 4th, 2017
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It will be a close race this weekend with Rings topping the chart on Friday with $5.6 million, putting it just ahead of Split … for now. Its word-of-mouth is terrible. It did get its first positive review, but its Tomatometer Score is just 6% positive, while it earned a C minus from CinemaScore. On the positive side, overall this is actually better than predicted, and it looks like it will earn close to $14 million, instead of just under $13 million.
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February 2nd, 2017
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The new releases this week are not strong, so we could see Split remain on top for the third weekend in a row. Rings should at least be in a fight for first place, if it just does as well as Resident Evil: The Final Chapter did last weekend. On the other hand, The Space Between Us is being eviscerated by the critics and it really needed good word of mouth to thrive. If it opens in the top five, I will be impressed. This weekend last year, Hail, Caesar! was the number one new release and it earned just $11.36 million. Rings should top that. Unfortunately, the number one film was Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned more than than $20 million. There’s no way Split will match that, so 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year competition.
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January 31st, 2017
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There was only one film the $10,000 club this past weekend, The Salesman, which earned an average of $23,693 in three theaters.
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January 31st, 2017
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It was a surprisingly strong weekend at the box office, no thanks to the new releases. Split easily won with $25.66 million over the weekend, well ahead of A Dog’s Purpose, which earned second place with $18.22 million. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter got off to a fast start, but collapsed over the rest of the weekend. Finally, the less said about Gold the better. Overall, the box office was really strong with $141 million. Granted, this was 2.5% lower than last week, but it was 1.3% better than the same weekend last year. This growth is entirely due to Split’s hold plus the Oscar bounce a number of films got. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $929 million, which is 4.7% lower than last year’s pace of $975 million. It is still too soon to make any real predictions for 2017’s long term success. That said, 2017 did cut into 2016’s lead and it is now down by $46 million or 4.7%.
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January 29th, 2017
The Screen Actors Guild were handed out tonight and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. There was no one big winner. Hidden Figures won the most prestigious category, but Fences was the only film with multiple wins.
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January 29th, 2017
An impressive decline of 34% in its second weekend and a crop of middling to poor performances by new releases will be enough to keep Split safely at the top of the box office chart this weekend. With Universal projecting $26.3 million for the weekend as of Sunday morning, Split is well ahead of the studio’s new release, A Dog’s Purpose, which will come in with around $18.4 million. Split will finish the weekend with around $78 million in total.
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January 29th, 2017
The Producers Guild of America awards were handed out last night and I have almost nothing to say about them. The favorite in each category won, including La La Land. Talking about La La Land winning is beginning to sound like a broken record.
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January 28th, 2017
Friday was the beginning of a good weekend for Universal, but it wasn’t a good day for the box office as a whole, as two of the three new wide releases struggled. Split was down just 46% when compared to last Friday and earned $7.9 million. Assuming it acts like, well, practically every film ever made, it will have an even better Saturday and that puts it on pace to earn about $25 million over the weekend. It will top $100 million during the first weekend of February and will still be in wide release over Presidents’ Day long weekend. This is fantastic news for the studio.
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January 26th, 2017
It is not a good week at the box office. There are two films opening at saturation level theaters counts, 3,000 or more theaters, and both have a shot at first place. A Dog’s Purpose was expected to win with relative ease, but recent controversy, and weak reviews, have put that in doubt. This leaves an opening for Resident Evil: The Final Chapter to squeak out a win. However, it will be dealing with direct competition and that’s going to hurt. Finally there’s Gold, which is barely opening truly wide and is just hoping for a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, Kung Fu Panda 3 opened with just over $40 million. This could be more than all three wide releases open with this weekend. 2017 does have better depth, but it won’t be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 25th, 2017
xXx: Return of Xander Cage easily took first place on the international chart with $50.5 million in 53 markets. The film’s biggest market was India, where it pulled in $7.4 million. Russia was second best with $5.39 million on 1,191 screens. The film had similar debuts in France ($3.1 million); Germany ($2.8 million); Mexico ($2.62 million); and Australia ($2.24 million on 331 screens). This film is clearly doing better internationally than it is domestically, but it will need about $200 million worldwide to have any chance of breaking even any time soon.
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January 25th, 2017
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The overall number one film, Split, was also the only film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $13,170. The closest competition was Tanpopo, which earned $7,677 in one theater during its 13th week of re-release.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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January 24th, 2017
Split dominated the weekend box office earning $40.01 million, which is nearly double predictions and nearly double its nearest competition, xXx: Return of Xander Cage. The overall box office still shrunk from last weekend, but it was down just 3.2%, which is excellent for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 was 27% stronger. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016, but that gap has closed to 9.4% at $736 million to $812 million.
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January 19th, 2017
It is a deceptively busy week with five films opening or expanding wide. At least that’s what the dsitributors are saying. In reality, there are only two truly wide releases, xXx: Return of Xander Cage and Split. There is also one semi-wide release, The Resurrection of Gavin Stone, as well as two semi-wide expansions, The Founder and 20th Century Women. Return of Xander Cage and Split are the only two of the films that have a shot at the top ten and they could be in a close race for first place. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases, but none of them made significantly more than $10 million at the box office. The biggest film of the weekend, The Revenant, earned just $16.01 million. 2017 could finally win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 19th, 2017
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For the first time in its run, Passengers earned first place with $30.59 million on 17,000 screens in 78 markets for totals of $136.34 million internationally and $226.07 million worldwide. At this point, the studio has either earned back the $110 million production budget, or has come close. If it can find an audience on the home market, then it could break even, eventually. This weekend, the film’s biggest opening was in China where it earned first place with $17.45 million on an estimated 10,000 screens over the weekend for a total of $17.52 million including previews. China is already the film’s biggest market overtaking Russia, where it has $16.25 million after four weeks of release, including $618,000 on 528 screens this past weekend.
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January 18th, 2017
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Despite earning 50% positive reviews, Worlds Apart topped the theater average chart with $16,353 in its one theater. The only other film in the $10,000 club was 20th Century Women, which spent its third week there with an average of $10,894 in 29 theaters.
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January 18th, 2017
As expected, Hidden Figures remained in first place as the box office was dominated by holdovers. The best of the new releases / wide expansions was The Bye Bye Man, which earned fifth place with $15.20 million. On the positive side, while there was only one film to earn more than $20 million over the weekend, there were seven that earned $10 million or more. That’s really good depth. It’s good enough for an 8.5% increase from last weekend reaching $149 million. However, this is still 10% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is behind 2016 by 15% at $562 million to $659 million, but again, it is way too soon to make any predictions.
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January 15th, 2017
A pile-up at the box office this weekend will leave a crush of new releases behind Hidden Figures and La La Land, which remain the top two films at the box office. Hidden Figures will be down just 10% (in part thanks to expanded distribution) to $20.45 million, for $54.8 million in total, as of Sunday evening. Fox is projecting a $25.3 million 4-day weekend for the film. La La Land is even more impressive, growing its box office by 43% and moving from fifth to second on the chart with $14.5 million, and $74.1 million to date. It’s record-breaking performance at the Golden Globes has clearly lifted it to another level with audiences.
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January 14th, 2017
Hidden Figures unexpectedly led the way on Friday with $5.53 million. This is 28% lower than last Friday, but that was the film’s first weekend wide and this is a holiday weekend, so it should bounce back a lot over the rest of the weekend. Award-worthy reviews and continued Awards Season presence will also help the film earn about $23 million over the four-day weekend. Its running tally will be about $57 million on Monday, putting it on pace for $100 million domestically.
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January 12th, 2017
The last of the Directors Guild of America nominations were announced and the Oscars are really shaping up to be a one-movie show. That movie is Deadpool. I’m joking of course, but it did get yet another nomination. At this point, it could earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination and I wouldn’t be surprised. The film that is dominating Awards Season is La La Land and frankly I’ve lost count of the number of nominations it has received.
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January 12th, 2017
Six films are opening or expanding this weekend, which have a shot at the top ten. However, only one of them, Patriots Day, has a real shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only “new” film in the top five. The biggest wide release of the week is Monster Trucks, which is opening in 2,800 theaters. I didn’t see that coming. [Ed.: The final announced theater count for Monster Trucks is an even more impressive 3,119] Meanwhile, Sleepless is only opening in 1,800 theaters, while Silence is expanding into 750 theaters. We still haven’t mentioned all of the new films. As for holdovers, Hidden Figures has a real shot at first place, while La La Land should get a boost from its Awards Season success. This weekend last year, Ride Along 2 opened with just over $35 million over the three-day weekend. There’s no film that will match that figure during the four-day weekend. On the positive side, there were only four films that earned more than $10 million during the three-day weekend and this year we should have five. That’s not enough to win in the year-over-year competition. It likely won’t even be close.
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January 11th, 2017
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
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January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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January 10th, 2017
The theater average chart was dominated by holdovers, as is the norm this time of year. The top film was Patriots Day with an average of $14,972 in seven theaters. This bodes very well for its wide expansion next weekend. 20th Century Women is becoming a sleeper hit earning an average of $13,047 in ten theaters. This is one of those films that should be earning more Awards Season buzz, but I fear it has slipped between the cracks. Toni Erdmann and Paterson were neck-and-neck with averages of $10,472 and $10,205 respectively.
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January 10th, 2017
The first weekend of the year wasn’t as potent as anticipated, as none of the holdovers held on as well as expected. This helped Hidden Figures earn first place with $22.80 million, putting it just ahead of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which pulled in $22.06 million. The box office was down 26% from last weekend to $137 million, but this is a post-holiday weekend, so this decline was expected. The box office was also down 14% from this weekend last year. It is still way too soon to compare the box office year-over-year. In fact, we should wait till The Force Awakens faded out of the top five before we can really get a picture of how 2017 will do. That was President’s Day long weekend. So once we get past President’s Day long weekend, the year-over-year comparison will begin it have some real value.
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January 8th, 2017
The first major awards night was Sunday with the Golden Globes being handed out. La La Land led the way with seven wins, winning in every category it was nominated in. This is great news for its Oscar chances, but there’s already backlash building.
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January 5th, 2017
It’s the first weekend of the year and there’s only one wide release, Underworld: Blood Wars, plus one wide expansion, Hidden Figures. (As expected, A Monster Calls is not expanding truly wide and it won’t grow enough to make the top ten. I don’t think it will top $3 million over the weekend.) None of these films are really going to challenge the top two holdovers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing, although that pair should be in a close race for first place. This weekend last year was very similar to this weekend, with one new release, one wide expansion, and a Star Wars holdover on top. Unfortunately, this year is much weaker. 2017 is going to get off on a losing note.
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January 4th, 2017
The Writers Guild of America is the latest group nominees to be announced. There are a lot of categories that WGA hand out awards, but only three of them are theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players, like Hidden Figures, but there are also some surprises.
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January 4th, 2017
Hidden Figures rose to first place during its first full weekend of release with an average of $34,329 in 25 theaters. It already has more than $2 million and it expands wide on Friday. 20th Century Women was next with an average of $27,800 in four theaters. It isn’t a major player during Awards Season, but it is picking up enough nominations to help it stick around in theaters. Patriots Day was down just 8% earning an average of $21,117 in seven theaters. Last week’s winner, Silence, fell to an average of $20,827 in four theaters. If it has a similar drop next week, it will put its wide release in jeopardy. The best limited release of the week was Paterson, which earned an average of $17,334 in four theaters. Toni Erdmann earned an average of $14,000 in three theaters during its first full week of release. La La Land continues to expand, but remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,738. The overall number one film, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, was next with an average of $11,934, while the second place film, Sing, was right behind with an average of $10,647.
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January 4th, 2017
The final weekend of the year wasn’t as potent as we had predicted, but there were still a number of reasons to celebrate. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story won the weekend and is on its way to becoming the biggest hit of the year. Sing was relatively close behind and will get to $200 million this upcoming weekend. Overall, the box office rose by 2.9% from last weekend hitting $186 million. This is 15% lower than the same weekend last year, which again was actually the first weekend of 2016. We need to switch to the Strowbrinian Calendar. I’m not kidding about this. As for the year-over-year comparison, that’s a little confusing. If you just look at the calender years, then 2016 broke the record earning $11.4 billion. However, the movie year actually begins the first Monday of the year and ends the final Sunday before the first Monday of the next year. Going by this definition of the year, 2016 actually just failed to overtake 2015, because we lost a few days of The Force Awakens and only got one extra day of Rogue One.
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January 1st, 2017
With most studios closed for New Year’s Day, the weekend estimates have a rather piecemeal look as of this morning. We do have an official weekend estimate for Sing, which Universal projects will make $41.5 million over the three-day weekend and $53.4 million over four, for a total coming out of the holidays at an impressive $177.3 million. That will put it in second place, not far behind Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. Disney won’t be releasing numbers until tomorrow, but we should see a three-day weekend around $50 million, $65 million over four days, and a total of about $440 million by Tuesday morning.
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December 28th, 2016
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Silence scored first place on the theater average chart earning an average of $32,720 in four theaters. Patriots Day was next with an average of $23,044 in seven theaters. Most impressively, Hidden Figures earned an average of $20,620 in 25 theaters, in just one day. The final film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story with an average of $15,404.
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December 20th, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $37,306. This wasn’t that far above the second place film, Fences, which earned an average of $32,366. Meanwhile, last week’s winner, La La Land, was pushed into third place with an average of $20,510.
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December 19th, 2016
As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the weekend box office chart with $155.08 million. This is well over twice as much as every other release combined. It is nearly twice as much as last weekend’s total box office. This helped the box office grow by 154%, reaching $211 million. Sadly, this was over $100 million or 32% lower than the same weekend last year when The Force Awakens dominated the chart. The year-over-year decline can be best summed up as within expectations. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a massive amount at $10.47 billion to $9.96 billion, but that will change as we see more numbers for Rogue One come in. On a more big picture look, Disney became the first studio ever to hit $7 billion worldwide in one year. They now have the record for biggest yearly domestic box office and biggest yearly worldwide box office, while it is just $160 million away from the international record as well.
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December 18th, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is set for the second-biggest weekend in December, third-biggest weekend of 2016, and twelfth-biggest weekend of all time, with Disney predicting a weekend of $155 million, as of Sunday morning. Needless to say, that’s a great result for the Star Wars spin-off, beating the studio’s pre-release guidance, and hitting or exceeding the numbers that most in the industry were expecting. Our model predicted $151 million as of yesterday morning, so the film is maintaining its momentum through the weekend, and there are some reasons to believe that Rogue One may beat Disney’s Sunday projection.
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December 17th, 2016
There’s a lot of great news coming out of Friday. For starters, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earned $70.07 million. This means its previews were 41% of its opening day figure, compared to 48% for The Force Awakens. I was expecting Rogue One to bounce back a little bit from its previews, but not this much. If Rogue One merely maintains The Force Awakens’ internal multiplier, it will earn $148 million over the weekend. There are some positive factors and some negative factors. For example, not all schools are closed on Monday, so it won’t be able to hold onto its box office numbers on Sunday, at least not as well as The Force Awakens did. However, its prospects improved from the afternoon shows to the evening shows and that shows word-of-mouth is strong. This makes sense, as its reviews have settled at 84% positive and it scored an A from CinemaScore. An opening weekend of $150 million is certainly within reach; our model is predicting $151 million. Disney is predicting a more cautious $145 million to $150 million.
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December 15th, 2016
It is a deceptively busy weekend, as there are two wide releases, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Collateral Beauty, and two films that are “expanding wide”, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. However, while that looks like a lot, in reality Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is the only film most people are talking about. In fact, it is going to dominate the box office to such a degree that its only real competition is The Force Awakens, which opened this weekend last year. Unfortunately for Rogue One, there’s almost no chance it will match The Force Awakens. In fact, there’s almost no chance the entire box office will match the $247.97 million The Force Awakens opened with. 2016 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. That said, 2016 has a nearly $460 million lead over 2015, so has long as Rogue One tops $100 million over the weekend, it should be enough to keep 2016 ahead in terms of raw box office numbers.
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December 14th, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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December 13th, 2016
La La Land dominated the per theater chart with an average of $176,221 in five theaters. This is not only the best of the year, it is the second best ever for a live-action film, behind just The Grand Budapest Hotel average of $202,792 in four theaters. Jackie was well back with an average of $18,933 in 26 theaters. Had La La Land not come out this weekend, this would have been big news. Now it might get lost in the crowd. Lion remained in the $10,000 club for the third weekend in a row with an average of $11,224 in 15 theaters.
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December 12th, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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December 11th, 2016
Moana will get to enjoy one last weekend at the top of the box office chart, in spite of a good debut for Office Christmas Party. Disney’s animated adventure will post about $18.8 million in its third weekend, for $145 million to date. It’s beginning to lag behind the performance of Frozen, which made $22.6 million in its third weekend in wide release, and had amassed $164.8 million. That still puts Moana well on course for $300 million domestically, although $350 million is looking like a stretch. Internationally, Moana will earn around $23.5 million this weekend, taking its total overseas to $93.8 million, and its global haul to $238.8 million.
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December 10th, 2016
As expected, Office Christmas Party earned first place on Friday with $6.6 million. Its reviews have settled at 44% positive, which is lower than you would like, but fine for this type of release. Likewise, it earned a B from CinemaScore. Neither figure will help its legs, but neither will really hurt them either. By comparison, The Night Before earned $3.56 million during its opening day on its way to a $9.88 million opening weekend. If Office Christmas Party has the same internal multiplier, then it will earn $18.3 million this weekend. However, The Night Before earned 66% positive reviews and an A- from CinemaScore. Office Christmas Party’s weaker performances with critics and audiences will likely result in a lower legs and an opening weekend of just over $17 million.
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December 9th, 2016
I problably could have cut this list down to one film, La La Land, because it is the only film on this week’s list with a realistic chance at expanding significantly. In fact, given its reviews and its buzz, it has a realistic chance at earning Oscar glory.
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December 1st, 2016
November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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