Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend predictions: Nobody’s business

March 26th, 2021

Action thriller Nobody rounds out March with a rollout in 2,460 theaters and its sights firmly set on the top of the box office chart. If the domestic box office is recovering at the pace we hope, it should achieve that goal, but our model’s figures suggest its victory isn’t assured. More...

Weekend estimates: Croods leads another dismal weekend

December 6th, 2020

The Croods: A New Age will remain top at the box office this weekend, with Universal projecting a $4.4-million weekend as of Sunday morning. That will take the animated adventure past $20 million in total by the end of the day today. That fact pales in comparison to bad news regarding the continued decline in box office receipts. Returning films are falling 12% to 25% short of our model’s pre-weekend predictions. Part of that is down to the post-Thanksgiving decline that’s to be expected, but the continued toll of the pandemic is further dragging on spending. Perhaps the glimmer of good news is that more people are heeding experts’ advice and watching their movies at home. More...

Weekend estimates: Freaky fails to deliver

November 15th, 2020

Going into the weekend, hopes were high that Freaky could post the kind box office numbers needed to show momentum in the theatrical market. Instead, it’s falling well short of our prediction, and numbers from the rest of the films in the top six, including a sharp 55% decline by last week’s winner Let Him Go, are also mostly disappointing. Instead of an increase in top six box office this weekend, we’re looking at a market that’s still flat, or even declining. What went wrong? More...

Weekend predictions: Freaky could be a pandemic-sized hit

November 13th, 2020

One of the curiosities since theaters started to reopen in the late Summer and early Fall is that the movies being released have not really targeted the demographic one would expect to be most likely to actually go to theaters: people in their teens and twenties. Instead, we’ve mostly seen thrillers, which tend to skew older, and family movies, which obviously skew younger. The most obvious exception to this rule is The New Mutants, which opened with $7 million back in August. This weekend, Freaky is looking to pull off a similar result. If it over-performs, it has a shot at beating Mutants, and having the second-best opening of the pandemic era. More...

Weekend estimates: Let Him Go tops expectations with $4 million opening

November 8th, 2020

Let Him Go is pulling off a comfortable win at the box office this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Its $4.1-million opening is the third-best result during the pandemic, behind Tenet’s $20.2 million and The New Mutants’s $7.0 million, and slightly ahead of Unhinged’s $4.0 million, assuming the final numbers hold on Monday. While this is undoubtedly good news, which pushes the total for the top six close to $10 million for the first time in a while, the evidence points towards this being more a case of one film connecting with audiences rather than a significant market improvement. More...

Weekend predictions: can Let Him Go topple Come Play?

November 6th, 2020

The race to be elected the top film at the box office this weekend is too close to call, according to our model, although the odds favor Let Him Go, which opens in 2,454 theaters, and has enough buzz to probably pull off a victory. Come Play would have to enjoy an unusually strong hold coming off Halloween weekend to secure a surprise win. More...

November preview: Universal keeps the industry alive

November 5th, 2020

The country might be distracted by a drawn-out election right now, but the movie business soldiers on this month, even though recovery from the pandemic looks as far away as ever. While theatrical grosses remain tiny, Universal is currently planning to try its luck with three new wide releases, two from the studio itself and one from its specialty division Focus Features.

At least, that’s their current plan. Two of the films seem certain to roll out, but their Thanksgiving release of The Croods: A New Age has to come with an asterisk attached. Perhaps this release will be an olive branch to theater operators after the studio caused controversy in March by pulling Trolls World Tour from theaters and sending it direct to PVOD. Universal is maybe taking this opportunity to look they’re supporting the theatrical business, and their case is made more convincing by the fact that every other major studio is sitting out November. Even looking beyond the end of the month, 20th Century Studios is the only other distributor that looks like it’ll have a wide release between now and Christmas, with Free Guy on December 11 and Death on the Nile on December 18. (Universal has another film, All My Life slated for December 4.)

If Universal sticks to its plans, and a couple of other expected changes (Coming 2 America going direct to Amazon Prime, and Wonder Woman 1984 getting pushed back again) happen, it’ll be the only studio offering real support to the theatrical business between now and the end of the year. Maybe everyone will let bygones be bygones, and we can at least point to that as a ray of hope for the industry going in Holiday Season. More...

Let Him Go Trailer

August 21st, 2020

Thriller starring Kevin Costner and Diane Lane coming to theaters on November 6 ... Full Movie Details.

Following the loss of their son, retired sheriff George Blackledge and his wife Margaret leave their Montana ranch to rescue their young grandson from the clutches of a dangerous family living off the grid in the Dakotas, headed by matriarch Blanche Weboy. When they discover the Weboys have no intention of letting the child go, George and Margaret are left with no choice but to fight for their family. More...