May 7th, 2020
For the third week in a row, the top five films on the DEG Watched at Home Chart remain the same, although there are changes in the order from last week. Bad Boys for Life remained in first place. Meanwhile, Sony remained the only studio with more than one entry in the in the top five and tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty.
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April 30th, 2020
Bad Boys for Life rose to first place on this week’s DEG watched at home chart, thanks to its release on DVD and Blu-ray. This wasn’t Sony’s only entry in the in the top five. In fact, the studio was tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty.
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April 21st, 2020
It’s a tough week for new releases on physical disc, although not because of the quality of the new releases. In fact, there are several new releases that I’m interested in. However, Amazon is having issues that’s making it hard to research this column. The biggest release on this week’s list is Bad Boys For Life, but I’m still waiting for the screener for that movie. Guy Ritchie’s The Gentlemen is also a welcome new major release.
The review DVD for Looking for Alaska did arrive, but not until Monday, so the review will have to wait. That said, it has some of the best reviews on this week’s list, and solid extras, which is enough to be the only real contender for Pick of the Week.
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April 3rd, 2020
The VOD market is beginning to return to a new state of normal with a collection of wide theatrical releases from earlier in the year, as well as some smaller releases that are more or less VOD premieres. Usually it is the wide releases that stand out on these lists, but Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always is the VOD release I would recommend the most. That said, if you are a fan of political documentaries, then you have a few choices, Slay the Dragon being the best of this selection.
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January 14th, 2020
It was a mixed weekend with the two wide expansions bettering predictions by small margins, but most of the rest of the top five failed to do so. Granted, no film truly bombed, but the little misses did add up causing the total box office to slip by 6.6% from last weekend hitting $132 million. Dips like this are expected at this time of year, as the big holiday releases are fading and January releases just are not expected to be able to compensate. On the positive side, this weekend was 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s helped 2020 get off to an early 6.3% / $24 million lead at $410 million to $386 million. This is not only a faster start than last year, it is actually faster than 2018, which set the record at the end of the year. I’m not saying 2020 will have the biggest total domestic box office; it is far too early to make a prediction like that. However, an early lead can help, as it sets a tone of winning. If the dominant story is a weak box office, then moviegoers could assume the movies coming out are not worth going to see and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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January 12th, 2020
1917 is matching projections based on Friday estimates perfectly with a weekend estimate of $36.5 million, which would push its total run to $39.2 million so far. This is a little above our prediction, and much higher than studio expectations. It has some of the best reviews in the top ten and a solid A-minus rating from CinemaScore, both of which should help its legs. Its legs will get even longer if it does well in the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Interestingly, the film isn’t skewing as old as I thought it would, as 47% of its audience was in the 18-through-34 age bracket, compared to just 18% at 55 and above. The film is earning $19.92 million from 30 international markets, although it is being released by multiple studios outside the domestic market, which makes tracking more difficult, as no one studio is giving a complete picture. Hopefully we will get enough smaller details to piece things together by Wednesday.
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January 11th, 2020
1917 earned $13.97 million during the first Friday of its wide expansion. Universal is projecting a $36.5 million weekend after this result, which is a little better than we predicted and better than most were expecting after its Thursday previews. Add in the film’s stellar reviews and its likely performance when the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, and the film should have very long legs. (It earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is actually lower than I was anticipating.) Universal didn’t have a great 2019 domestically, so an early $100 million hit would help its 2020 run get off to a better start.
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January 10th, 2020
1917 started its wide release with $3.5 million on Thursday during its previews. This is more than the film made during two weeks of limited release and it had a stellar run in limited release. Some are saying this is a weaker than anticipated start, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Dunkirk earned $5.5 million and if this film just manages the same legs it will open with $32 million, which isn’t that far below our prediction. Furthermore, Dunkirk was a summer release, which would help its previews. Another comparison is American Sniper, which was also a limited release that expanded in January. That film made $5.3 million during its previews on its way to a nearly $90 million wide expansion. If this film does the same, then it will earn nearly $60 million over the weekend. That’s not going to happen, as American Sniper was an anomaly in so many ways that you can’t assume any film will ever match its start, but it does show getting to $35 million after this start isn’t a stretch. This is especially true if mainstream audiences like the film as much as critics did. We won’t have solid evidence either way until the CinemaScore comes out, but I would be surprised if it is less than an A-rating.
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January 9th, 2020
It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 1st, 2020
It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there.
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September 12th, 2019
Comedy starring Tiffany Haddish and Rose Byrne opens January 10 ... Full Movie Details.
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