November 27th, 2017
This is the week after Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which explains why there are so few new releases on this week’s home market release report. That said, there are some worth checking out. Haikyu!! is one of the best sports Anime titles ever made, but only the Premium Box Set is coming out this week and its just too expensive. Logan Lucky is one of the best wide releases of the year, but the DVD / Blu-ray doesn’t have enough extras to be the Pick of the Week. I was tempted to give Pick of the Week to Long Time Running, but while it is amazing the DVD / Blu-ray doesn’t come out till Friday. Likewise, I finally finished the review for MST3K: Season 11 to celebrate the renewal, but it came out way too long ago to be Pick of the Week. That leaves The Wrong Guy as my Pick of the Week. It has no reviews and the DVD / Blu-ray only has a commentary track, but it’s an underrated film in my opinion, and a Canadian film, so it gets Pick and Puck of the Week.
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November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
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November 13th, 2017
It’s a bad week for screeners, as the screeners for both Atomic Blonde and Wind River are late. Both look like they are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week material. There are a trio of contenders for this award: In This Corner of the World, Kedi, and Whose Streets? It was a close call, but in the end, Kedi came out on top.
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September 6th, 2017
The last weekend of the summer had no new wide releases, so it made sense that the box office would drop even further. However, that was not the case. I think the combination of the last long weekend of the summer and terrible recent box office results led a lot of people to go to the movies one last time before school starts. After all, it is likely most moviegoers haven’t seen a movie in theaters for several weeks. The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily led the way with $10.54 million over three days and $13.27 million including Monday. It earned more over three days than any of its competitors earned over four. Overall, the box office rose 9.8% from last weekend to $76 million. Sadly, this is still 24% lower than the same weekend last year, but it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.45 billion, which puts it 6.3% or $500 million behind last year’s pace.
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August 31st, 2017
Not only will this weekend likely be the worst weekend of the year, there’s a very high likelihood it will be the worst weekend in over a decade. It arguably could be the worst weekend of all time. There are no wide releases, or even semi-wide releases. The widest “new” release of the week is the 40th Anniversary re-release for Close Encounters of the Third Kind, but last week’s 3D re-release for Terminator 2: Judgment Day suggests it won't come close to the top ten. Tulip Fever is a long-delayed Weinstein Co. release and just avoiding the Mendoza Line would be a reason to celebrate. Up next in terms of theater counts is Hazlo Como Hombre. It is a Chilean film and films aimed at Hispanics have had success in recent years. They only need to earn just over $2 million during the three-day weekend to reach the top ten, so one of them could get there, but that’s not a sure thing. This leaves The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy path to first place. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was The Light Between Oceans, which earned just under $5 million. Sadly, this might be more than all three new releases earn this year. Last year the overall box office finished just under $100 million.
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August 29th, 2017
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Amazingly, the weekend box office was actually worse than expected, as every new release we talked about in our predictions missed the Mendoza Line*. This left The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy first place with $10.26 million during its second weekend of release, just avoiding the bottom ten worst number one films of the 21st century. It could break the record next weekend, as there are no new wide releases looking to take top spot. Overall, the box office plummeted 28% to just $69 million. This is in the bottom ten smallest domestic weekends of the 21st century, 13th worst including the year 2000. (Interestingly, the year 2000 produced 5 of the worst 7 weekends in that time frame and September 2000 alone has 4 of the 5 worst weekends.) Again, since there are no new wide releases next weekend, we could see this record fall. The $69 million weekend total is 41% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a decline you normally only see when there is a misalignment in holidays. Unfortunately, we’ve seen a similar decline several times in recent weeks. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.32 billion, which is $490 million or 6.2% less than 2016’s pace. We really need 2017 to put up some wins soon, or we simply won’t be able to turn around the deficit before the end of the year.
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August 24th, 2017
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This will likely be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, at least so far. There’s only one wide release, Leap!, while there are two other films opening “nationwide” that both have a real shot at the top ten, All Saints and Birth of the Dragon. All three films combined might not earn more than $10 million over the weekend. By comparison, this weekend last year, Don’t Breathe opened with $26.41 million. 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again and we can hardly afford to fall further back.
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August 22nd, 2017
The summer is over, but The Hitman’s Bodyguard did well for this time of year earning $21.38 million over the weekend. Logan Lucky was well back opening with just $7.60 million. Overall, the box office fell 18% from last week to just $96 million. This is also 27% lower than the same weekend last year. The top two films this year actually did better than the top two films earned last year, but the depth was just terrible. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.21 billion, putting it $430 million or 5.6% lower than last year’s pace.
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August 20th, 2017
We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them.
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August 19th, 2017
The Hitman’s Bodyguard is giving the late summer box office a bit of a boost, earning $8.0 million on Friday. This is far from a monster opening, but assuming it has average legs, it will become a midlevel hit by the end. This assumption seems safe, as its reviews are only 40% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest below average legs; however, the next two weeks are particularly bad when it comes to new releases, so the lack of competition should help out. The film has a better than 50/50 shot at over $20 million over the weekend, but even if it just misses that mark, it is still great for this time of year and Lionsgate should be happy with this result.
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August 18th, 2017
The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $1.65 million during previews, which is on the high end of expectations. This is good for this time of year, but its reviews suggests its legs will be on the low end of average, so a $16 million opening is the new target. Anything above that will be bode well for its chances for the next couple of weekends when there is little to no competition. The film reportedly cost $30 million to make, so it will need about $55 million domestically for Lionsgate’s share to top that. That’s probably out of reach. On the other hand, it will only need close to $100 million worldwide to break even eventually. This opening night suggests it will get there.
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August 17th, 2017
There are a couple of new releases coming out in wide release: The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. The two films have vastly different Tomatometer Scores, but similar box office potentials. Unfortunately, neither is expected to become a hit and there’s a chance whichever of them earns first place will do so with the lowest box office result of the year so far, currently held by Split’s third weekend of release. If the yearly low record isn’t broken this weekend, it will almost certainly be broken next weekend. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad earned first place with just over $20 million. This is more than any one film will make this weekend. Additionally, there were six films that earned $10 million or more last year, while there are only three that have a shot at that milestone this week. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 yet again.
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August 11th, 2017
There are two wide releases next weekend and it is a bit of a coin toss to determine which one will open in first place. At the moment, Logan Lucky’s early reviews are 100% positive. However, the director, Steven Soderbergh is trying a new release strategy and I don’t know how well that will work. On the other hand, The Hitman’s Bodyguard only has one review and it is 6 out of 10. I suspect a lot of its reviews will be in that range. That said, it is a more traditional release and has louder buzz due to a more aggressive ad campaign. It came down to a coin toss and The Hitman’s Bodyguard won, so it is the the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for The Hitman’s Bodyguard.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, consisting of a randomly selected previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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August 1st, 2017
July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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July 7th, 2017
Comedy starring Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, and Riley Keough, directed by Steven Soderbergh opens August 18 ... Full Movie Details.
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