March 14th, 2013
New releases did well on the Blu-ray sales chart for the week of January 27th, 2013. This includes End of Watch, which earned first place with 428,000 units / $9.41 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just a hair over 50%, which is really impressive for this type of release.
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March 5th, 2013
We had a new release on top of the Blu-ray sales chart for the week of January 20th, 2013. Taken 2 sold 838,000 units and generated $16.75 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 42%, which is good for the genre, but not great.
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March 2nd, 2013
New releases dominated the top five of the Blu-ray sales chart for the week of January 13th, 2003. Dredd led the way in terms of units with 184,000 units, but was second in terms of revenue with $3.68 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just 37%, which is weak for an action film like this.
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February 24th, 2013
New releases were a bit of a mess, as Christmas Day was a Tuesday, so there were a few releases that came out the following Monday. One of those releases, Looper, led the Blu-ray sales chart during the week of January 6th with 317,000 units / $6.66 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just 34%, which is lower than I was expecting.
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February 5th, 2013
This week is a little confusing on the home market, as there are two weeks of new releases to deal with. (Because Christmas landed on a Tuesday, new releases were spread throughout the week, including some the following Monday.) One of the old new releases topped the DVD sales chart, as Looper sold 553,000 units and generated $9.71 million during its first full week on the home market. This is better than I was expecting.
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February 5th, 2013
Given how bad the new releases were, it's no surprise none of them reached the top of the Blu-ray sales chart. (While Looper was awarded the Pick of the Week, it actually came out on the following Monday, while the sales week ends on Sunday, so the numbers will be included in next week's results.) The Dark Knight Rises returned to first place with 314,000 units / $7.65 million for the week giving it totals of 3.90 million units / $79.93 million. It is one of the best selling Blu-rays of all time and about 50% more than The Dark Knight's current running tally.
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January 7th, 2013
Surprises seems to be the word of the day, as the WGA nominations included a number of them. Granted, Zero Dark Thirty and a lot of the other films that have earned Awards Season success thus far were here, but there were almost as many surprises as there were obvious choices.
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December 22nd, 2012
This year, Christmas day lands on the Tuesday, so it should come as no surprise there are not a lot of DVDs or Blu-ray coming out that day, or over the next week. (There are some films in this week's list that are definitely fillers, plus two late reviews, and I still could only get to a dozen releases.) However, there are some coming out during the week that are of interest and there are two that would be contenders for Pick of the Week in all but the busiest weeks. Justified: The Complete Third Season on DVD or Blu-ray is one such contender. However, in the end I went with Looper on DVD or Blu-ray as Pick of the Week.
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October 25th, 2012
Paranormal Activity 4 opened in first place on the international chart with $26.35 million on 3,900 screens in 32 markets. This includes a number of major markets. It earned first place in Australia with $3.73 million on 321 screens and in Germany with $3.30 million on 316. It was also strong in Mexico topping the chart with $2.20 million on 956 and in Brazil with $1.81 million on 268. The film had to settle for second place in the U.K. with $4.08 million on 416 screens and in Russia with $3.90 million on 810 screens. While it missed first place, it still did well in both markets. On the other hand, it really struggled in Spain earning fourth place with just $918,000 on 238 screens. It is still too early to tell where the film will end up, but this is a good start
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October 18th, 2012
After just two weeks of release, Taken 2 has already earned more internationally than the original did in total. Over the weekend, the sequel pulled in $45.09 million on 6,889 screens in 63 markets for a two-week total of $134.76 million, while its worldwide total rose to $220.89 million. The film had to settle for second place in Germany with $3.55 million on 437 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.88 million. It only managed fourth place in Italy with $1.26 million on 265. Its best market of the weekend was the U.K. with $6.01 million on 510 screens over the weekend for a total of $23.29 million after two. The film has very few markets left to open in, but it has already made enough to cover its production budget and likely a good chunk of its P&A budget. It will reach profitability before it reaches the home market.
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October 15th, 2012
It was another good week at the box office with just about every film in the top ten at least doing as well as expected. Granted, none of the new releases were monster hits, but the depth was very good with five films topping $10 million over the weekend. Taken 2 remained in first place, so it should come as no surprise that the box office was lower than last weekend; however, it only fell 8.6% to $130 million. This is 48% more than the same weekend last year, which is a huge boost. Year-to-date, 2012 expanded its lead to 3.8% at $8.42 billion to $8.11 billion. Just a few weeks ago, it looked like 2012 would fall below 2011's pace in the end, but now things are looking a lot more optimistic.
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October 11th, 2012
Taken 2 was just as strong internationally as it was domestically earning first place with $55.23 million on 6,319 screens in 50 markets for a total of $66.79 million. The film had a trio of first place openings in major markets, starting with the U.K. with $11.85 million on 506 screens. It also opened in first place in France with $8.29 million on 561 screens and in Australia with $7.92 million on 246. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Mexico with $2.54 million on 930 screens, in Russia with $2.00 million on 750, and in Spain with $1.24 million on 320.
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October 8th, 2012
Taken 2 took the competition and went to work on them. It opened much, much better than its predecessor did, doubling its opening weekend haul. It also made nearly twice as much as Hotel Transylvania and easily more than last year's number one film, Real Steel. This helped the overall box office grow by 20% from last weekend to $142 million, which is nearly 50% higher than the same weekend last year. Finally there's a reason to celebrate the box office again. One win could have been a fluke, but two is officially a streak. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of 2011 by 3.2% at $8.24 billion to $7.99 billion. Granted, that's off its peak from earlier in the year, but I'm happy the bleeding has stopped.
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October 4th, 2012
This weekend, there are two wide releases making their debuts, Taken 2 and Frankenweenie. Plus a previous limited release is aiming for a spot in the top five, Pitch Perfect, and another limited release that could expand into the top ten, The Perks of Being a Wallflower. It's an all around busy weekend. Taken 2 should easily win the box office race earning more than the original, although it very likely won't have the same legs. More importantly, it should open with more than last year's number one film, Real Steel. The second best wide release should open better than Ides of March did, plus the holdovers this year are better than last year. Am I getting optimistic again? Yes. Keep in mind that I have had the optimism crushed a lot this year.
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October 4th, 2012
Well... we found out why the Chinese box office numbers were extra late this week. There was an accounting error in Looper's previously reported numbers and it took time to sort things out. Instead of making $23 million to $25 million, it made about $6 million. That's actually still really good and better than it performed here, relative to the size of the two markets, but it wasn't a monster hit. The wide gap in the initial reported number and the final figure is an embarrassment, but hopefully it will spur China to build the infrastructure needed to collect box office data faster and more accurately. China might be the most important international market, but studios can't invest money into making movies aimed more at a Chinese market if they can't trust the box office numbers they get. The other numbers we had were accurate leading to a total weekend haul of $22.85 million on 2,506 million in 17 markets. It wasn't a hit in all of them, as it only managed third place in Brazil with $955,000 on 332 screens. The film is just starting its international run, so it is hard to predict where it will end up, but so far most signs are very positive.
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October 4th, 2012
It looks like International numbers will be late this week, for reasons I hinted at earlier. Looper won the weekend race, but about two thirds of its opening weekend haul came from China which is notoriously slow for getting final box office numbers. (The same used to be true of Russia, but they've gotten a lot better.) Overall it is estimated the film made $36 million, including China, with first place openings in Russia ($5.09 million on 1,010 screens) and the U.K. ($3.92 million on 449). Resident Evil: Retribution was knocked to second place after two weeks on top, but held strong with $21.1 million over the weekend for running tally of $136.9 million after three. Finally, Ice Age: Continental Drift became the highest grossing animated film at the international box office and is on pace to become the first animated film to cross $700 million. More information will come when the weekend final numbers are out.
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October 2nd, 2012
The winners of our In the Loop contest were determined and they are...
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October 1st, 2012
September ended on a record-breaking note as Hotel Transylvania finally bumped Sweet Home Alabama out of top spot on the September weekend list. That record lasted a full decade, which is amazing given the total ticket price inflation since 2002. Not only did Hotel Transylvania crush predictions, Looper also did a little bit better than predicted, a tiny bit better than predicted. This is true of just about every film in the top ten, and every little bit helps. Overall, the weekend box office surged 30% from last weekend to $118 million, which was 19% higher than the same weekend last year. Let's hope this is more than a momentary blip and the beginning of a new winning streak.
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September 30th, 2012
Hotel Transylvania will set a new September weekend record by a big margin this weekend, according to Sony's estimate released on Sunday morning. The film's expected $43 million debut is more than 20% bigger than Sweet Home Alabama's opening exactly ten years ago, although a 38% increase in ticket price in the last decade means it's a bit more of a marketing record than a real one. Still, $43 million is a very useful boost to the industry, which has been in the doldrums in September. In fact, this will be the first weekend of the month to record a win on the 2011 year-on-year comparison. Also helping is a great opening weekend for Looper, which will itself end up in the top 30 September weekends, with Sony projecting $21.2 million right now. All-in-all, it's a great weekend for the studio.
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September 27th, 2012
There are two wide releases coming out this week that should be in a relatively close race for first place, plus an also-ran that will mostly be forgotten. Last week I thought Looper would win the weekend over Hotel Transylvania; however, that's probably not going to happen. Looper is definitely the better movie, but Hotel Transylvania is opening in more theaters than expected, while Looper is opening in less than expected. Both should do decent business, at least compared to the rest of September's new releases. On the other hand, Won't Back Down will likely struggle just to reach the top five. There's one more new release with a shot at a spot in the top ten, Pitch Perfect. It's opening in more than 300 theaters, which is a risky proposition. If it does open in the top ten, it could expand wide next weekend. I don't think it is very likely, but I'll have more to say with the limited release report. Last year there were four wide releases, but none of them cracked $10 million. The number one film was Dolphin Tale at just under $13 million. If we don't top that this year, we are in a world of trouble.
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September 24th, 2012
It was another terrible week at the box office with only one of the four wide releases matching pre-weekend predictions. End of Watch was able to come out on top and it was only the second time an Open Road release was able to do that. The rest of the films ranged from a little disappointing to, 'Please don't make me talk about this; it's depressing.' The overall box office rose by 5.1% from last week to $90, but that's a staggering 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Yes, year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but its lead continues to shrink reaching just 2.5% at $7.92 billion to $7.73 billion. Ticket sales are just 1.3% higher than last year's pace and the upcoming releases don't seem particularly strong, so by the end of October, we could officially be in trouble.
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September 21st, 2012
The final weekend of September features three wide releases: Hotel Transylvania, Looper, and Won't Back Down. When it comes to the target film, I think we can dismiss Won't Back Down, as it is opening in the fewest theaters and has the least amount of buzz. Hotel Transylvania is opening in the most theaters, but early reviews are only mixed and the buzz isn't much louder than Frankenweenie, despite opening a week earlier. Looper is earning near perfect reviews so far and it has a lot of buzz, but it has a lot of internet buzz, which often fails to translate into ticket sales. I really, really, really want Looper to be a hit, but I'm afraid that is clouding my judgment. Even so, I think it will be the number one film next Friday and will just have enough to stay ahead of Hotel Transylvania. As such, I'm making it the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Looper.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Glee: Season Three on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of In Time on Blu-ray. (It's the closest thing I had to a Time Travel film I had in the prize pool.)
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 1st, 2012
August is over and let's just be glad we never have to talk about that month again. It is too early to tell how a couple of the wide releases from the month will do, but of the other fourteen we have solid numbers for, none of them were a pleasant surprise. There were a few that were mildly disappointing, but likely still profitable. There were also a few that were "What were they thinking?" level of box office bomb. This September, there about a dozen films opening wide, depending on your definition of wide. (Plus, For A Good Time, Call might expand wide on the 14th, while The Master is opening in limited release on the 14th, but might expand wide before the end of the month. "Might" is the key here. I don't think either will get it done.) None of the dozen films are likely to get to $100 million. In fact, there's a good chance no film opening this month will get to $75 million in total. The biggest film of the month could be Finding Nemo, which is getting a 3D Re-release. As long as the movie going public hasn't tired of 3D re-releases, it should be a hit, but there are signs that the trend might be ending soon. There are a few others that should become midlevel hits, but most will struggle to find an audience. Last September was not terrible with one $100 million film and a few other midlevel hits. For 2012 to come out ahead, it will have to rely on depth, and I'm more than a little worried in that regard.
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