Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for September 5th, 2017

September 5th, 2017

There are a few first-run releases coming out this week, but none of them did well enough in theaters and / or with critics to bother with above the fold, so to speak. There is one exception, The Big Sick, but it is only coming out on VOD this week. I’m hoping a Blu-ray screener is on its way. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are, in alphabetical order, Emmet Otter’s Jug-Band Christmas on DVD, Mr. Mom on Blu-ray, and Rebecca: Criterion Collection on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Alfred Hitchcock classic as the Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for August 22nd, 2017

August 23rd, 2017

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 comes out this week and it is such a big release that is scared away nearly all of the competition. Fortunately, it is also a great film and a serious contender for Pick of the Week. The main competition are Ash vs Evil Dead: Season 2 and Supergirl: Season 2. In the end. I went with Ash vs Evil Dead, but it was a close race. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Cars 3 Crosses the Finish Line with $53.69 million

June 20th, 2017

As expected, Cars 3 earned first place over the weekend, but it did so with just $53.69 million, which is lower than anticipated. On the other hand, Wonder Woman remains one of the most impressive wide releases of 2017 when it comes to legs. Even if it didn’t earn another dollar, it would still have above average legs. All Eyez on Me went off to a fast start, but has a troubling internal multiplier, which doesn’t bode well for its future. Overall, the box office rose 31% from last weekend to $189 million. Unfortunately, it fell 19% from the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Fortunately, 2017 still has a sizable lead over 2016 at $5.16 billion to $5.00 billion. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wonder Woman is the Spider-Man of Super Heroes

June 13th, 2017

The weekend box office had a few surprises, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, Wonder Woman had the best hold for a major super hero movie since Spider-Man and is on pace for $340 million to $375 million. On the negative side were all three new releases. The Mummy finished on the low side of already low expectations, while It Comes At Night pleased critics, but not moviegoers. Meanwhile, Megan Leavey missed the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office fell 22% from last weekend to $144 million. This is 5.7% lower than this weekend last year. Fortunately, since this time last week, 2017 expanded its lead over 2016 by about $20 million at $4.90 billion to $4.73 billion. We are almost halfway through the year, so a $175 million / 3.7% lead is solid. It isn’t impossible for that lead to evaporate, but it is enough to be cautiously optimistic about the final tally. More...

Weekend Estimates: Mummy’s $32 Million Debut No Match for Wonder Woman

June 11th, 2017

There are precious few crumbs of comfort to be found from Universal’s launch of The Mummy this weekend. The studio is projecting a $32.2 million opening this weekend from 4,035 theaters. That will be a fairly distant second to Wonder Woman, which is expected to earn about $57.1 million. Even the bright news—that this is Tom Cruise’s biggest global opening weekend—comes with an asterisk. More...

Friday Estimates: Wonder Woman Wows Again with $15.8 million

June 10th, 2017

At the beginning of the month, I assumed this weekend would be a close race between Wonder Woman and The Mummy. I assumed The Mummy would at least win on Friday, but that’s not the case, as Wonder Woman remains the number one box office draw. The film earned $15.8 million on Friday, which is 59% lower than its opening Friday. It should bounce back on Saturday and finish the weekend with $53 million, which is just a 49% sophomore stint drop-off. A super hero movie falling less than 50% during its second weekend of release is simply stunning. Granted, its reviews are among the best of the year, so having better than average legs was expect. That said, a 49% drop-off is still an amazing performance and should lead to more than a few movie executives to look for ways to copy its success. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Is The Mummy Dead on Arrival with $2.66 million?

June 9th, 2017

The Mummy started its domestic box office run last night earning $2.66 million in previews. This is well below expectations and it was already expected to struggle. To put this into perspective, it only earned approximately a quarter of what Wonder Woman managed last week and less than half of what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned the weekend before that. Add in reviews that are just 20% positive and there’s a chance the film’s word-of-mouth will kill the film’s legs by this evening. At this point, a $30 million opening could be asking too much. $25 million isn’t even a sure thing anymore. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Mummy Bury the Competition?

June 8th, 2017

Last weekend was a great one at the box office with Wonder Woman earning over $100 million during its opening. This weekend isn’t expected to be nearly as potent. The biggest new release is The Mummy, which is supposed to be the start of the Dark Universe, but its reviews suggest this combined universe will be short-lived. It Comes At Night could become A24’s biggest hit, although that’s not a particularly high bar. Finally there’s Megan Leavey. It isn’t expected to open truly wide, but it only needs about $2 million to reach the top ten. This weekend last year was similar in terms of box office strength. The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the way with barely more than $40 million, while there were two other new releases to top $20 million. This year’s crop of new films is nowhere near as good as that; however, the holdovers should make up the difference leaving 2017 ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2017 Preview: June

June 1st, 2017

May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead. More...

Megan Leavey Trailer

April 27th, 2017

Drama starring Kate Mara, directed by Gabriela Cowperthwaite, opens June 9 ... Full Movie Details. More...