January 15th, 2013
Catching up on the home market, we see that the top of the November 18th DVD chart was dominated by new releases, with three of them in the top five. This includes Brave with a very impressive opening of 2.16 million units / $34.51 million. This was enough to place in the top ten for 2012, and it has already climbed several more spots.
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January 9th, 2013
There were quite a few new releases to chart on the November 18th edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. In fact, there were five in the top ten. Leading the way was Brave with 1.16 million units and $23.97 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 35%, which is lower than expected. Granted, it is a kids movie, but it is a 3D animated kids movie.
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November 13th, 2012
New releases this week are dominated by one title, Brave. The second best selling title according to Amazon.com is Lawrence of Arabia, which is a film that should be in everyone's collection, but as a catalog title, it likely won't sell a huge number of units. The third best selling title according to Amazon.com is Duck Dynasty: Season One. That's not a good sign. Fortunately, Brave is clearly Pick of the Week material with the Blu-ray Combo Pack or 3D Combo Pack battling for that honor.
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July 16th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift opened on the low end of expectations. The rest of the top five did better than predicted, but that wasn't enough to compensate and the overall box office fell 16% from last weekend to $165 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, and less than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II opened with. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, even if the margin is down to 6.6% at $6.05 billion to $5.68 million. The box office should bounce back next weekend with the release of The Dark Knight Rises.
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July 12th, 2012
This weekend, Ice Age: Continental Drift has the weekend to itself, at least as far as new wide releases goes. It will still have to deal with holdovers, but The Amazing Spider-Man will likely be in a distant second place. Last year, the number one release was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, which opened with a then record $169.19 million. Ice Age won't match that. In fact, there's a chance Ice Age won't make that much during its entire run. 2012 box office is going to take a tumble this weekend.
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July 9th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man started faster than expected, but stumbled a little bit over the weekend. Additionally, the other two wide releases, Savages and Katy Perry: Part of Me, were mixed and weak respectively. This left the overall box office down 6.5% from last weekend to $196 million. However, this was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. 2012 increased its lead over 2011 to 8% at $5.78 billion to $5.36 billion, so even if the rest of the year is completely flat compared to last year, it would still be a solid win.
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July 8th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man has continued its strong performance through the weekend, adding another $65 million to the $75 million it accumulated through Thursday. Its $140 million total is ahead of Sony's pre-release prediction, but mostly in line with independent analysis. With only Ice Age: Continental Drift opening next weekend, it will have a clear couple of weeks to pick up the teenage crowd and something over $200 million, before being blown away by The Dark Knight Rises on July 20. The weekend's other two debutantes are less amazing.
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July 5th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man opened on Tuesday to better than expected numbers and should cruise to victory over the weekend, but it is not the only wide release this week. Katy Perry: Part of Me opens tonight while Savages opens tomorrow. They are not going to compete for top spot. In fact, very few people think they will compete with last week's winner, Ted, for second place and one or both could miss the top five entirely. Fortunately, the combined strength of the new releases, plus healthy holdovers, should help 2012 easily win over last year.
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July 1st, 2012
June was not a good month. Of the twelve films that opened wide last month, only four beat expectations by any serious margin, while there were seven that we know will fail to match expectations and one that's too close to call. That's a really bad record. Granted, 2012 still has a huge advantage over 2011, but it did shrink over the month of June. Looking forward to July, we get mixed signals. On the one hand, last July there were two monster hits, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which I'm considering a July film even though it opened on June 29th, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. Those two films combined earned more than $700 million. This time around the only guaranteed monster hit is The Dark Knight Rises and I don't think there are many analysts bullish enough to think it will make $700 million by itself. That's not to say analysts aren't bullish on the film's chances. Some think it will top The Avengers at the box office. If it fails to reach $500 million, it would be seen as a disappointment. On the other hand, last year there were four other films that topped $100 million, while this year there are only six other films, period, and only two of those, The Amazing Spider-man and Ice Age: Continental Drift, are sure things to hit $100 million. There is a chance The Dark Knight Rises will earn more than the rest of the wide releases earn combined. And if this movie bombs, there's little hope for the rest of the month. But that won't happen, right?
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