Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for November 5th, 2019

November 6th, 2019

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw is easily the biggest release of the week, but it is not the best. Pick of the Week contenders include Galaxy Quest and Good Omens, as well as Alice, Sweet Alice, which arrived late. I’m going with Good Omens, but all three are must haves. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Good Does Well, Box Office is Still Weak

August 20th, 2019

It’s the dog days of summer and Good Boys was the only new release with an impressive debut of $21.40 million, while The Angry Birds Movie 2’s $16.09 million six-day debut isn’t a bad start for this time of year. There were a few holdovers to earn more than $10 million over the weekend, so the overall box office wasn’t a disaster, just a disappointment down 9.5% from last weekend to $119 million. More importantly, this is 7.7% lower the the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $7.35 billion, but this is 6.3% or $490 million behind last year’s pace. At this point, I don’t think it is possible for 2019 to catch up, but hopefully it can put together a strong last few months to at least save face. Additionally, the international box office is doing better, so worldwide it is close to a wash. More...

Weekend Estimates: Universally Good Weekend at the Box Office

August 18th, 2019

Good Boys and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw are topping the weekend box office chart, so while the overall box office isn’t doing well, Universal is having a great weekend. Good Boys is leading the way with $21.0 million, which is not only better than our predictions, but better than Universal’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. It’s not all rosy, as the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore don’t suggest really long legs, while this is not the type of film to do well internationally. In fact, it is only pulling in $2.1 million during its opening weekend overseas, including $1.0 million in the U.K. More...

Friday Estimates: Good Does Great

August 17th, 2019

Good Boys earned first place on the Friday chart with $8.31 million. Universal is projecting a $20.8 million opening weekend based on this start, which would give the film a rather low internal multiplier. This is due to its reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore, neither of which are bad, but they are not great either. It would still be the fastest opening for a comedy all year and this is the first R-rated comedy to top the chart since The Boss debuted more than three years ago. On the one hand, this is great news for Good Boys. On the other hand, what the hell happened to the genre? R-rated comedies used to regularly earn $100 million or more at the box office. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Hobbs and Shaw Survive Their Sophomore Stint

August 12th, 2019

The weekend box office was mediocre with many of the new releases missing expectations, and some of them had low expectations to begin with. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw was able to remain in first place, but on the low end of expectations, leaving Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark as the biggest positive news of the weekend. Overall, the weekend box office was 11% lower than last weekend at $132 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than the same weekend last year, leaving 2019 further behind last year’s pace. 2019 is now behind 2018 by 6.2% or $480 million at $7.16 billion to $7.64 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Hobbs and Shaw Remain Top Draw

August 11th, 2019

Friday Estimates: Scary Tops Friday, Hobbs and Shaw Set to Win Weekend

August 10th, 2019

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark led the way on Friday with $7.86 million. The film’s reviews are Certified Fresh at 80% positive, but it only managed a C from CinemaScore. To be fair, this isn’t a bad result for a horror film, but it does mean it likely won’t have great legs and will sink into second place over the full weekend. It will still beat our prediction and could even become CBS Films’ best opening of all time. Right now, it is on pace to come close to The Woman in Black’s current record with about $20 million during the opening weekend. It would be ironic is CBS Films set the company record now, as it is ceasing theatrical releases and instead shifting towards streaming content. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Stories Scares Up Some Box Office Dollars

August 9th, 2019

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark had the best previews on Thursday, earning $2.3 million. It was expected to top Dora and the Lost City of Gold, because it is a horror movie and that genre tends to be a lot more front-loaded. However, it wasn’t expected to do this well and it will easily top our $15 million prediction for the weekend, especially if its reviews translate into strong word-of-mouth. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dora find Box Office Gold?

August 8th, 2019

There are five wide or semi-wide releases coming out this weekend, which is just too many and practically guarantees at least one of them will flop at the box office. Of these films, Dora and the Lost City of Gold is the only one expected to compete for first place, while Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark should do well as a low-budget horror movie. Unfortunately, The Kitchen and The Art of Racing in the Rain are not connecting with critics and that will likely keep them out of the top five. Finally, Brian Banks is opening in just 1,240 theaters and that could keep it out of the top ten. This weekend last year, The Meg opened with $45 million. No film playing this weekend will match that and I don’t think this year’s depth is going to compensate, meaning we are going to lose in the year-over-year competition yet again. More...

2019 Preview: August

August 1st, 2019

July bounced back from June with both Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King getting to $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, we are still behind 2018’s pace by more than $400 million, but that’s a substantial improvement over where we were at the start of the month. August should continue this winning streak, at least initially. Hobbs and Shaw could open with close to $100 million, but the only other film opening this month that has a real shot at $100 million in total is Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Last August, both Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg topped $100 million, while Christopher Robin came within 1% of that milestone. This August might be better at the very top, but I don’t think the top three this month will top the top three last month. Maybe if we get a surprise hit, it will, but I’m not willing to bet on that. On the other hand, unless something dramatic happens, 2019 should at least come close to matching last year’s pace and that’s better than most months have done this year. More...

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Trailer

May 29th, 2019

Supernatural horror movie, based on the books, opens August 9 ... Full Movie Details.

It’s 1968 in America. Change is blowing in the wind… but seemingly far removed from the unrest in the cities is the small town of Mill Valley where, for generations, the shadow of the Bellows family has loomed large. It is in their mansion on the edge of town that Sarah, a young girl with horrible secrets, turned her tortured life into a series of scary stories, written in a book that has transcended time—stories that have a way of becoming all too real for a group of teenagers who discover Sarah’s terrifying tome. More...