November 15th, 2012
Tinker Bell: Secret of the Wings was one of six new releases to reach the top 11 on the Blu-ray sales chart this week. It was surprisingly strong for a direct-to-DVD release aimed at kids selling 424,000 units and generating $12.10 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 36%.
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November 14th, 2012
Tinker Bell: Secret of the Wings continues the franchise's impressive run on the home market leading all new releases earning first place on the DVD sales chart. It sold 756,000 units and generated $12.85 million in opening week sales. This is amazing for a direct-to-DVD release.
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October 23rd, 2012
There are not a lot of major releases on this week's list. The biggest box office hit was Magic Mike, which did cross $100 million, but I'm not sure its target audience is going to support it on DVD and especially not on Blu-ray Combo Pack. According to Amazon.com, Tinker Bell: Secret of the Wings is the best selling new release, and the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 3D Combo Pack are selling very well. However, while that film is absolutely worth picking up, the Pick of the Week goes to The Invisible War on DVD. It could be an Oscar winner next year.
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July 2nd, 2012
The box office wasn't as close a race as some had predicted, as Ted ran away with things breaking records in the process. That's not to say the competition was weak. Both Magic Mike and Tyler Perry's Madeas Witness Protection beat expectations and this helped the overall box office grow 61% from last weekend. It also grew 4% from last year, which normally wouldn't seem like a big deal, but this weekend last year was the Independence Day long weekend. For 2012 to win despite the misalignment is amazing and hopefully this is a good sign for the coming weeks. Year-to-date, 2012 still holds a solid lead over 2011, $5.43 billion to $5.06 billion. Percentwise the lead is now 7%, which is a great position to be in at the halfway mark of the year.
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June 28th, 2012
There are three new releases and a holdover looking to battle for top spot over the weekend. Magic Mike will likely be the best of the new releases, but Ted could be close behind. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection is a wild card and could earn first or could struggle to reach $20 million. The only one of the four new releases that will not have a shot at first place is People Like Us, which at its lowest might not reach the top ten. Brave will also be in the race for first place and many believe it has the advantage over the newcomers. As for the year-over-year comparison, forget about it. This weekend last year was the Independence Day long weekend and the misalignment will result in 2012 taking a beating. In fact, the combined openings of the four wide releases will likely not be as much as Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened with last year. June is going to end on a really soft note, but July should start strong due to the same holiday misalignment.
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June 25th, 2012
Turns out the weekend was rather predictable, with nearly every film earning roughly what they were expected to do. More films topped expectations than missed them, and this includes Brave, which earned more than last year's winner, Cars 2. This helped the overall box office grow 26% from last weekend to $164 million. Unfortunately, the other two new releases, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, were not as strong compared to the counter-programming from last year, Bad Teacher, and this meant 2012 lost to 2011 by 7%. Worse still, next weekend will be a disaster, as there are four middling releases that will have to compete with Transformers: Dark of the Moon.
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June 24th, 2012
Pixar will celebrate its 13th consecutive number one opening this weekend, with Brave cruising to first place with about $66.7 million, according to Disney's Sunday estimate. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, meanwhile, is DoA with only $16.5 million, not enough even for second place. That honor will go to Madagascar 3 with $20.2 million in its third weekend and a total over $157 million.
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June 21st, 2012
This is not a fun time to be a box office analyst, as there has been a lot of unpredictability recently. Predicting the number one film is easy, as Brave is the only film earning any real buzz. In fact, people will be comparing it to Cars 2 more than any other film playing in theaters this weekend. This is partially because Cars 2 opened this weekend last year, but also because that was Pixar's most recent film. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter has generated a lot of buzz on the internet, but that means little at the box office. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World will need to connect with more mature moviegoers, and while they haven't had a lot of wide releases to check out, the film is opening in less than 2000 theaters, which will hurt its box office chances. Unless we have some pleasant surprises, we could see another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 15th, 2012
There are two films opening wide next week, two and a half if you count Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, which is opening in less than 2000 theaters. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter is earning a lot of internet buzz, but I think it is safe to say Brave will win the race to the top of the box office chart. It is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Brave.
We have two DVDs to give away, but they are first two volumes for Power Rangers: Samurai, so splitting them up to two different winners seemed wrong. So, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of each of Power Rangers: Samurai - The Team Unites and A New Enemy on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2012
As May ends and we look forward to June, we have some good news and some bad news to report from last month. First the bad news. Nearly every film missed expectations, sometimes by massive levels. The good news? The Avengers was a record-breaking hit and it managed to compensate for every miss of the month and May of 2012 was just as strong as May of 2011. Unfortunately, the month has ended on a low note and The Avengers is shedding theaters, so new releases will be really important for June's chances. There are two films that were supposed to open wide this month that are no longer doing so, although we did have one film moved up to replace G.I. Joe: Retaliation, but that still leaves just twelve films opening wide over the five weekends in June. This does include six films that have a real shot at earning $100 million or more at the box office, and three of those have a shot at $200 million. Prometheus is earning a ton of buzz and there are some that think it will be the biggest hit of the month. It might even be a $300 million hit. However, you can't count out Brave in the race to become the biggest hit of the month, as Pixar's average is over $250 million and $300 million is also not out of the question. It's hard to compare last June, because there were only four weekends last June, and Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened on the Wednesday before the July 1st long weekend, which throws off the numbers. If you consider Dark of the Moon a June release, then there were six $100 million movies and one $300 million this month last year. We will need nearly every film to match expectations in order for 2012 to continue to strengthen its lead on 2011.
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