April 4th, 2012
New releases really dominated the Blu-ray sales chart taking the top four spots and five of the top six. Leading the way was The Muppets with 967,000 units / $24.16 million. Its opening week Blu-ray ray share was 52%, which is stunning for a live action family film. In fact, it's would good for a visually impressive action film.
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April 3rd, 2012
New releases dominated the DVD sales chart earning the top three spots and five of the top ten. Leading the way was The Muppets with 884,000 units / $15.05 million. This is a little weaker than I would like, but perhaps it performed better on Blu-ray. I'm not overly optimistic, because live action kids movies tend to struggle on high definition.
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March 26th, 2012
It's not a particularly strong week when it comes to the home market. The biggest box office hit coming out this week is Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked, but that film missed expectations at the box office and was savaged by critics. It should be the best selling DVD and Blu-ray of the week, but that's because it is a slow week overall. As for the best of the best, Mystery Science Theater 3000: XXIII is my choice for Pick of the Week. Others might go with South Park: Season 15 instead, while A Dangerous Method would also be the top choice of many. By a strange coincidence, I'm waiting for the screeners for all four of these films.
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March 23rd, 2012
The Sitter came out in early December, which is not a bad time of year to release a film, but it bombed opening with less than $10 million and finishing with just over $30 million. Granted, when it opened, the overall box office was in an extended slump. So perhaps the film was a victim of a weak market. Or perhaps it was just a bad movie.
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March 20th, 2012
It's another week were there are a lot of Awards Season players hitting the home market and a lot of screeners that are late. There are a trio of films that are high on the list of contenders for Pick of the Week. These include two serious drama / thrillers: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on Blu-ray Combo Pack and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo on Blu-ray. However, in the end, I went with the extreme other end of the serious scale with The Muppets's Wocka Wocka Value Pack
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December 19th, 2011
Well, serves me right for being optimistic. The box office was again filled with disappointments and both wide releases missed expectations, which is bad. They missed expectations by a combined $30 million, which is a disaster. I was going to say, "At least it wasn't as bad as last week!", but that's damning it with faint praise. The overall box office did grow by 57% to $118 million; however, since last weekend was the worse weekend in a few years, this not a reason to celebrate. Compared to last year, the drop-off was 12%. With two weeks left in the year, 2011 is behind 2010's pace by 4% at $9.71 billion to $10.12 billion with no hope of catching up. At this point, the only thing to do is looking forward to 2012 and hope the slump we are in now doesn't extend past the new year.
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December 13th, 2011
After an extended slump with only a few bright spots over the past couple months, expectations for this weekend were lowered. Unfortunately, the new releases managed to fail to live up to lowered expectations and we had the worst weekend of the year. That can't be right. It's the worst weekend in three years. The overall box office was down 7% from last weekend to just $75 million, while it was down 18% when compared with last year. With only a few weeks left in the year, 2011 is down by 4% to 2010 at $9.57 billion to $9.95 billion. At this point, 2011 has virtually no chance of catching up to 2010. In fact, the box office is so weak, I think it is wise to reduce all predictions by at least 10%. ... Maybe 20%.
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December 11th, 2011
A dismal weekend is predicted all round this weekend, and the total box office is set to record its poorest score in three years, and its worst December weekend in over a decade. With Breaking Dawn, Part 1 continuing its rapid decline, and no hits coming out since, the top of the chart has a decidedly anemic look to it. New Year's Eve will be top with around $13.7 million, a number that is miles behind last year's $56.3 million debut for Valentine's Day. The Sitter will come second with $10 million, which is less of an embarrassment, given its edgier nature, but still well below par.
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December 8th, 2011
We could be in for a bad weekend. Then again, most weekends this year have been bad. Neither New Year's Eve nor The Sitter are winning over many critics, while their box office potential might be even lower than previously expected. The only good news is that this time last year wasn't a great weekend at the box office either and, if one new release can be a pleasant surprise, there's still a chance 2011 can pull out a win. However, there are not many reasons to feel optimistic at this point. On the one hand, there is a chance the extended box office slump is just the new norm and the two back-to-back years of $10 billion were a fluke. On the other hand, maybe there is a pent up demand and as soon as a the big releases come out next week, we will see an explosion at the box office. We will know more after next week.
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December 2nd, 2011
There are two wide releases next week: New Year's Eve and The Sitter. And while I think the latter will earn better reviews than the former, box office numbers are what count for our weekly box office prediction contest and therefore the former is the target film in this week's contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for New Year's Eve .
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of A Madea Christmas: The Play on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Meet the Browns: Season 2 on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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December 1st, 2011
Well... game over. At the beginning of November, 2011's total box office was $340 million behind 2010's pace. We needed that gap to be closed significantly by the end of the month, but it actually grew wider. So now that there's virtually no chance that 2011 will avoid a year-over-year decline at the box office, not unless there's a surprise Avatar coming out this month. But is there at least some hope for the next four weeks? Last December six films reach $100 million, including one that opened in limited release and expanded wide, but none reached $200 million. This year, four are practically sure bets at $100 million, including one or two that could reach $200 million. Plus, there are four others that should make between $75 million and $100 million. I doubt all of them will reach the century mark, but if one did, it wouldn't be a shock. Then there's a couple of limited releases that should expand wide and, maybe, if one of them becomes the big play during Awards Season, it could reach $100 million as well. Even if every film beat expectations, 2011 won't come out ahead. But maybe if enough do, we can at least end the year on a high note. Unfortunately it has come down to that. Instead of talking about the box office record being broken, we are hoping 2011 doesn't end on yet another sour note.
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