International Box Office: Dangal Dominates China in Groundbreaking Run

May 25th, 2017

Dangal became the first Indian film to have its biggest single market not be India. It earned first place in China with $34.22 million over the weekend for totals of $113.55 million in China, $185.6 million internationally, and $198.0 million worldwide. It will shortly become the second Indian film to earn more than $200 million worldwide. More...

Home Market Releases for April 18th, 2017

April 18th, 2017

We are entering the worst time of the year on the home market. There’s only a trickle of last year’s Awards Season contenders left to deal with, while it is way too early for the major spring releases to come out on DVD / Blu-ray. There are some classic titles that are on this list, like Donnie Darko: 15th Anniversary Limited Edition or Ocean Waves Blu-ray Combo Pack. However, the Pick of the Week isn’t either of these titles, but MST3K: Season 11, which you can watch on Netflix right now. More...

International Box Office: Resident Evil here to Stay with $96.67 million

March 2nd, 2017

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter rocketed to the top of the chart of the international chart with $96.67 million on 24,465 screens in 75 markets for totals of $211.87 million internationally and $238.52 million worldwide. The film opened in China over the weekend earning $90.76 million over the weekend and $92.98 million including Thursday previews. At this point, the studio’s share of the worldwide box office is approximately $80 million, or twice as much as it cost to make. If the film hasn’t already broken even, it will do so shortly. I know the film is called The Final Chapter, but I can see the franchise continuing, focusing almost entirely on the foreign market. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Get Out Starts Out on Top with $1.8 million

February 24th, 2017

Get Out opened with $1.8 million during its midnight previews. This isn’t the best previews we’ve seen this year, but it is near the top. For example, it is just 10% lower than Split managed in January and only three other films topped $2 million during previews. The film’s 100% positive reviews should certainly help the film’s legs over the weekend and that’s great news for the studio. In fact, there are some who think it will earn more than $35 million over the weekend. That’s a little too bullish for my tastes, but I can’t entirely dismiss those predictions. Opening with just over $30 million, on the other hand, now feels more likely. Since the film only cost $5 million to make, it could earn more over the opening weekend than it cost to make and advertise. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Moviegoers Get Out to the Theater This Weekend?

February 23rd, 2017

There are three films opening wide this weekend, which is a surprise. The buzz for Collide and Rock Dog are so quiet that I’m surprised they are playing in more than 2,000 theaters and I will be equally surprised if they open above the Mendoza Line by averaging more than $2,000 per theater. On the other hand, Get Out has nearly 100 reviews and its Tomatometer Score is 100% positive. It could be a surprise smash hit. Then again... It could be another Keanu. If that happens, The Lego Batman Movie will earn its third first-place finish in a row. That’s would be bad news for the overall box office. This weekend last year there were a similar selection of new releases. Gods of Egypt struggled while the other two new releases bombed, and only Deadpool saved the box office. If Get Out matches Deadpool’s total weekend of $31 million this time last year, I will be so happy. I don’t think it will happen, but it could be close. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Lego Batman Begins with $53.00 million

February 14th, 2017

As expected, it was a big weekend at the box office with three massive hits. The Lego Batman Movie did earn first place, but not with as much as predicted at just $53.00 million. Fifty Shades Darker wasn’t that far behind with $46.61 million. Meanwhile, John Wick: Chapter Two just cracked $30 million, which is one of the ten best third place openings of all time. Week-over-week, the box office nearly doubled growing 90% from last weekend. Sadly, it was down 22% from last year. Granted, Valentine’s Day landed on a Sunday last year, so that boosted the weekend box office and 2017 should make some of that decline back on Tuesday. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $1.28 billion, putting it $40 million or 3.0% behind 2016’s pace. It is still way too soon to tell how 2017 will finish in the end, but hopefully things will turn around soon. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Batman Become a Billionaire?

February 9th, 2017

This should be the biggest weekend of the month with three potential hits, all of which are sequels. Of the three, The Lego Batman Movie is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the weekend. In fact, it is widely expected to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Fifty Shades Darker could be one of those rare sequels that earns less in total than the original made during its opening weekend. However, I’m not that pessimistic. On the other hand, John Wick: Chapter Two should open significantly better than its predecessor opened with, but it is still aiming to become a midlevel hit, nothing more. This weekend last year, Deadpool opened with $132 million. That could be more than the top two films open with this weekend. Even though 2017 does have better depth, I think it will lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Split Scores Another Touchdown with $14.42 million

February 7th, 2017

As expected, Split earned first place over the weekend with $14.42 million. That’s not bad for Super Bowl weekend. In fact, the overall depth was better than expected, not that you could tell from the week-over-week decline. The overall box office fell 31% to just $98 million. However, this was still 2.5% better than the same weekend last year. That’s a surprise victory. Granted, 2017 is still behind 2016 by 5.1% at $1.06 billion to $1.12 billion, but every little victory helps. More...

Weekend Estimates: Split Wins Third Weekend

February 5th, 2017

Rings managed to win on Friday, but the weekend as a whole will belong to Split, which is expected to top the chart with $14.6 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. Rings will finish second with $13 million or so, and A Dog’s Purpose will win Sunday (making this a rare weekend where three different films will top the daily chart) to finish the weekend with $10.8 million, and $32.9 million to date. More...

Friday Estimates: Rings Wins Friday with $5.2 million, Split will Repeat over Weekend

February 4th, 2017

It will be a close race this weekend with Rings topping the chart on Friday with $5.6 million, putting it just ahead of Split … for now. Its word-of-mouth is terrible. It did get its first positive review, but its Tomatometer Score is just 6% positive, while it earned a C minus from CinemaScore. On the positive side, overall this is actually better than predicted, and it looks like it will earn close to $14 million, instead of just under $13 million. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Split Be Separated from the Top Spot?

February 2nd, 2017

The new releases this week are not strong, so we could see Split remain on top for the third weekend in a row. Rings should at least be in a fight for first place, if it just does as well as Resident Evil: The Final Chapter did last weekend. On the other hand, The Space Between Us is being eviscerated by the critics and it really needed good word of mouth to thrive. If it opens in the top five, I will be impressed. This weekend last year, Hail, Caesar! was the number one new release and it earned just $11.36 million. Rings should top that. Unfortunately, the number one film was Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned more than than $20 million. There’s no way Split will match that, so 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year competition. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Split Outnumbers the Competition with $25.66 million

January 31st, 2017

It was a surprisingly strong weekend at the box office, no thanks to the new releases. Split easily won with $25.66 million over the weekend, well ahead of A Dog’s Purpose, which earned second place with $18.22 million. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter got off to a fast start, but collapsed over the rest of the weekend. Finally, the less said about Gold the better. Overall, the box office was really strong with $141 million. Granted, this was 2.5% lower than last week, but it was 1.3% better than the same weekend last year. This growth is entirely due to Split’s hold plus the Oscar bounce a number of films got. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $929 million, which is 4.7% lower than last year’s pace of $975 million. It is still too soon to make any real predictions for 2017’s long term success. That said, 2017 did cut into 2016’s lead and it is now down by $46 million or 4.7%. More...

Weekend Estimates: Split Retains Box Office Crown with Big Second Weekend

January 29th, 2017

An impressive decline of 34% in its second weekend and a crop of middling to poor performances by new releases will be enough to keep Split safely at the top of the box office chart this weekend. With Universal projecting $26.3 million for the weekend as of Sunday morning, Split is well ahead of the studio’s new release, A Dog’s Purpose, which will come in with around $18.4 million. Split will finish the weekend with around $78 million in total. More...

Friday Estimates: Dog Doesn’t Have Universal Appeal

January 28th, 2017

Friday was the beginning of a good weekend for Universal, but it wasn’t a good day for the box office as a whole, as two of the three new wide releases struggled. Split was down just 46% when compared to last Friday and earned $7.9 million. Assuming it acts like, well, practically every film ever made, it will have an even better Saturday and that puts it on pace to earn about $25 million over the weekend. It will top $100 million during the first weekend of February and will still be in wide release over Presidents’ Day long weekend. This is fantastic news for the studio. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Resident Moves into Theaters with $1 million in Previews - Update

January 27th, 2017

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter opened with $1 million in previews on Thursday, easily topping the competition. It was only half as much as Split managed last weekend, but if The Final Chapter earned half as much during its opening weekend, the studio would be very happy. That seems unlikely, as this is the latest installment in a franchise, so it should be more front-loaded as a result. Additionally, its reviews are much weaker than Split’s are, so the word of mouth won’t be as strong. That said, we predicted just over $17 million and we’re sticking with that for now. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Final Come in First? Or will Dog Find a Purpose?

January 26th, 2017

It is not a good week at the box office. There are two films opening at saturation level theaters counts, 3,000 or more theaters, and both have a shot at first place. A Dog’s Purpose was expected to win with relative ease, but recent controversy, and weak reviews, have put that in doubt. This leaves an opening for Resident Evil: The Final Chapter to squeak out a win. However, it will be dealing with direct competition and that’s going to hurt. Finally there’s Gold, which is barely opening truly wide and is just hoping for a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, Kung Fu Panda 3 opened with just over $40 million. This could be more than all three wide releases open with this weekend. 2017 does have better depth, but it won’t be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: Split Separates Itself from the Pack with $13,170

January 25th, 2017

The overall number one film, Split, was also the only film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $13,170. The closest competition was Tanpopo, which earned $7,677 in one theater during its 13th week of re-release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Split’s $40.01 million Helps Box Office Soar

January 24th, 2017

Split dominated the weekend box office earning $40.01 million, which is nearly double predictions and nearly double its nearest competition, xXx: Return of Xander Cage. The overall box office still shrunk from last weekend, but it was down just 3.2%, which is excellent for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 was 27% stronger. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016, but that gap has closed to 9.4% at $736 million to $812 million. More...

Weekend Estimates: Split Stuns with $40 Million Debut

January 22nd, 2017

2017 has its first surprise hit. Split is set for a weekend just north of $40 million, according to Sunday morning’s projection from Universal. That’s not just the biggest weekend of the year so far, but it almost doubles the $22.8 million earned by Hidden Figures a couple of weeks ago, and moves the studio ahead of Fox as the leading distributor for the year so far. It also marks, of course, a return to form for M. Night Shyamalan. It basically ties the debut of The Last Airbender back in 2010, and his last movie to do significantly better on opening weekend was The Village, which started out with $50.7 million in the Summer of 2004. More...

Friday Estimates: In a Surprise Twist, Split’s a Hit with $14.6 million

January 21st, 2017

Split easily won on Friday, doubling its nearest competition, and earning $14.6 million. This is the best opening day for M. Night Shyamalan since The Last Airbender opened in 2010. Its reviews are 76% positive, and it earned a B+ from CinemaScore, which is good for a horror film. This puts it on pace for an opening weekend of $34 million, which is more than it cost to make and advertise. If the film can match this during the rest of its run, then it will break even on its domestic numbers alone. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Split Consolidates Movie Audiences with $2 million in Previews

January 20th, 2017

Split started off with $2 million in previews, which is better than anticipated. It is also nearly double what The Visit managed during its previews in 2015. This doesn’t mean Split will earn twice as much as The Visit did. Different times of year and different levels of competition make that very unlikely. Even so, an opening of $25 million is now more likely than it was before these numbers came out. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Xander’s Return Result in Box Office Dominance?

January 19th, 2017

It is a deceptively busy week with five films opening or expanding wide. At least that’s what the dsitributors are saying. In reality, there are only two truly wide releases, xXx: Return of Xander Cage and Split. There is also one semi-wide release, The Resurrection of Gavin Stone, as well as two semi-wide expansions, The Founder and 20th Century Women. Return of Xander Cage and Split are the only two of the films that have a shot at the top ten and they could be in a close race for first place. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases, but none of them made significantly more than $10 million at the box office. The biggest film of the weekend, The Revenant, earned just $16.01 million. 2017 could finally win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2017 Preview: January

January 1st, 2017

December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison. More...