November 5th, 2012
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted was one of seven new releases to reach the top 20 on this week's Blu-ray sales chart. It took first place with 768,000 units / $15.36 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 45%. This is good for a digitally animated kids movie. In fact, this wouldn't be bad if it were an action film.
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November 5th, 2012
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted lived up to its name becoming the best selling new release and earning first place on the DVD sales chart. The film sold 944,000 units and generated $16.03 million in revenue, which was easily enough for first place.
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October 16th, 2012
It's a mixed week on the home market. Granted, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted is coming out, which made more than $200 million domestically and should sell quite well on the home market. On the other hand, the second biggest first run release is That's My Boy, which failed to make an impact at the box office. There is also a flood of weaker releases, secondary Blu-ray releases, and Christmas releases, much of which I would consider filler. The signal to noise ratio is a little off. As for the best releases of the week, there are some great TV on DVD releases like Mad Men: Season Five and Degrassi: Season 11, Part 2. There are also some limited releases, like Moonrise Kingdom on Blu-ray Combo Pack and even some Direct-to-DVD releases, like Excision on Blu-ray. All of these were contenders for Pick of the Week. In the end I went with Mad Men: Season Five for Pick of the week, while Degrassi: Season 11, Part 2 earned Puck of the Week.
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June 25th, 2012
Turns out the weekend was rather predictable, with nearly every film earning roughly what they were expected to do. More films topped expectations than missed them, and this includes Brave, which earned more than last year's winner, Cars 2. This helped the overall box office grow 26% from last weekend to $164 million. Unfortunately, the other two new releases, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, were not as strong compared to the counter-programming from last year, Bad Teacher, and this meant 2012 lost to 2011 by 7%. Worse still, next weekend will be a disaster, as there are four middling releases that will have to compete with Transformers: Dark of the Moon.
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June 21st, 2012
This is not a fun time to be a box office analyst, as there has been a lot of unpredictability recently. Predicting the number one film is easy, as Brave is the only film earning any real buzz. In fact, people will be comparing it to Cars 2 more than any other film playing in theaters this weekend. This is partially because Cars 2 opened this weekend last year, but also because that was Pixar's most recent film. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter has generated a lot of buzz on the internet, but that means little at the box office. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World will need to connect with more mature moviegoers, and while they haven't had a lot of wide releases to check out, the film is opening in less than 2000 theaters, which will hurt its box office chances. Unless we have some pleasant surprises, we could see another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 18th, 2012
The weekend could be be described as an epic disappointment. Rock of Ages and That's My Boy earned less during their opening weekends than some expected they would make during their opening days. This meant Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted had an easy win, even though it slumped a little bit more than expected. In fact, the only film in the top five that beat expectations was Snow White and the Huntsman. The overall box office fell 28% from last weekend to $130 million. More importantly, this was 15% lower than the same weekend last year. These wild swings at the box office are making it hard to predict what will happen in the future. We can't seem to get any momentum either way these past few weeks. Still, 2012 is ahead of 2011 by 9.5% at $4.91 billion to $4.49 billion and we do have at least one monster hit left to open this summer, so that lead could increase by the end of August.
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June 17th, 2012
What was billed as a potentially tight race at the top of the chart this weekend has turned into a romp for Madagascar 3 thanks in part to a steep second-weekend decline for Prometheus, but mainly to weak openings for Rock of Ages and That's My Boy. Madagascar itself will be down 41% to $35.5 million and a 10 day total of $120.4 million, which is a fairly sizable decline for a family movie at this time of year. Prometheus is set to decline 60% to $20.2 million this weekend, for $88.9 million so far. Rock of Ages will be third with $15 million for the weekend, which leaves it far short of its $75 million budget. That's My Boy will most likely end up in 5th place with $13 million, which may prove to be Adam Sandler's worst opening weekend ever, once adjusted for ticket price inflation.
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June 14th, 2012
It could be a really close race for the top of the box office chart between Rock of Ages, That's My Boy, and last week's winner, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted. All three films have a shot at a weekend haul in the mid-to-high $30 million range. That's the good news. The bad news is, none of them really have a shot at matching Green Lattern's $50 million opening from this weekend last year. Because of this, 2012 will need to rely on depth to earn a win in the year-over-year comparison and while there are some positive signs, it could be a close race.
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June 7th, 2012
It should be another very close race for top spot on the box office next weekend with Rock of Ages and That's My Boy having about equal chances of earning first place. I think Rock of Ages will earn better reviews and will come out on top by a narrow margin. Regardless if I'm right, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Rock of Ages.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Journey 2: The Mysterious Island on Blu-ray
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Journey 2: The Mysterious Island on Blu-ray
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! In the meantime, check out the new Journey 2 App.
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June 1st, 2012
As May ends and we look forward to June, we have some good news and some bad news to report from last month. First the bad news. Nearly every film missed expectations, sometimes by massive levels. The good news? The Avengers was a record-breaking hit and it managed to compensate for every miss of the month and May of 2012 was just as strong as May of 2011. Unfortunately, the month has ended on a low note and The Avengers is shedding theaters, so new releases will be really important for June's chances. There are two films that were supposed to open wide this month that are no longer doing so, although we did have one film moved up to replace G.I. Joe: Retaliation, but that still leaves just twelve films opening wide over the five weekends in June. This does include six films that have a real shot at earning $100 million or more at the box office, and three of those have a shot at $200 million. Prometheus is earning a ton of buzz and there are some that think it will be the biggest hit of the month. It might even be a $300 million hit. However, you can't count out Brave in the race to become the biggest hit of the month, as Pixar's average is over $250 million and $300 million is also not out of the question. It's hard to compare last June, because there were only four weekends last June, and Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened on the Wednesday before the July 1st long weekend, which throws off the numbers. If you consider Dark of the Moon a June release, then there were six $100 million movies and one $300 million this month last year. We will need nearly every film to match expectations in order for 2012 to continue to strengthen its lead on 2011.
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