January 6th, 2016
The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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November 27th, 2015
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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November 24th, 2015
This weekend is Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday and Cyber Monday. While the sales usually mean a massive increase in units sold, the sales also tend to scare away new releases. This is certainly the case here and this week's list is very short as a result. That's not to say there are no releases worth picking up. In fact, there are several Pick of the Week contenders, led by Shaun the Sheep on Buy from Amazon: Blu-ray Combo Pack. Meanwhile, for the second week in a row, we have a Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release, Guidance on DVD.
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November 9th, 2015
There are a couple of big hits on this week's list of new releases. Terminator: Genisys was a monster hit internationally, but it failed to live up to expectations here. On the other hand, Trainwreck earned $100 million here, but barely made a peep internationally. Of these two films, Trainwreck is the only one worth picking up. In fact, it is a Contender for Pick of the Week. However, I'm still waiting for the screener and I hate to give out this title when a screener is on its way. Because of that, I'm going with Better Call Saul: Season One as the Best of the Best, but it isn't the only other title worth picking up.
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October 20th, 2015
It is a shallow week on the home market. The number one release is Jurassic World, which is one of the biggest hits of all time. The second biggest release according to Amazon.com is the Back to the Future Box Set. There's mostly filler by the time you get to the second page of new releases. As for the best release on this week's list, I'm going old school. ... Really, really old school. Diary of a Lost Girl is 86 years old, but the Blu-ray is Pick of the Week.
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August 25th, 2015
It was an ugly weekend, for the most part. Straight Outta Compton fell about as fast as expected, but that was more than enough to dominate the new releases and push it past an important milestone. On the other hand, the biggest new release, Sinister 2, only managed third place, while the less said about Hitman: Agent 47 and American Ultra, the better. Overall, the box office fell 27% to $107 million. Like I said on Friday, summer is most definitely over. Worse still, this figure is 7.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Had all three new releases matched expectations, the box office would have practically matched last year's pace. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.26 billion, which is 5.3% head of 2014's running tally of $6.90 billion.
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August 4th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation matched expectations close enough to call it a victory. Meanwhile, Vacation came within 10% of Friday's predictions, but unfortunately, we weren't predicting box office success, so that's not a good thing. With the holdovers slumping as summer ends, the overall box office dipped 3.2% from last weekend. That's not the problem. The problem is the 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy broke records when it opened this weekend last year, but a 21% drop-off is still troublesome. 2015 still leads 2014 by a substantial margin at $6.67 billion to $6.25 billion, so unless 2015 really crashes, it will still have a lead going into the winter holidays.
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August 2nd, 2015
Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation will comfortably win the weekend at the box office, with Paramount projecting a total of $56 million on Sunday morning. That’s a very respectable performance by any measure, although it falls short of the franchise record, which was set by Mission: Impossible 2 15 years ago. It’s early days yet, but the prospects of another franchise chapter making around $200 million seem good, based on the excellent reviews this outing has been receiving. Overseas business is reportedly very good so far, although we don’t yet have any official figures.
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July 30th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation shouldn't have any trouble earning first place over the weekend. In fact, it should make more than the rest of the top five combined. On the downside, its real competition isn't the other films in theaters, but Guardians of the Galaxy, which set the August weekend box office record when it opened this weekend last year. Rogue Nation could have a record-opening for the franchise and still not come close to Guardians of the Galaxy. The only other new wide release of the week is Vacation, which started on Wednesday. Its reviews are terrible and its box office chances are not much better. Since nothing will top Guardians of the Galaxy's record-breaking opening, it seems 2015 will end the month on a losing note. Hopefully this is just a momentary hiccup and not an omen for how the rest of the summer will go.
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July 28th, 2015
Ant-Man unexpectedly repeated on top of the weekend box office, as Pixels failed to meet expectations by a sizable margin. In fact, only Southpaw beat expectations. The overall box office sunk as a result, down 22% from last weekend to $151 million. Worse still, this was 2.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Fortunately, 2015 has won a lot more weeks than it has lost and has built up an impressive 8.2% lead over 2014 at $6.45 billion to $5.96 billion. It isn't impossible for 2015 to lose a lead that large, but I'm cautiously optimistic that it can see this lead grow through to the end of the year.
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July 24th, 2015
Pixels leads a group of three wide releases looking to battle for limited box office dollars. It appears to be on track for first place, but with not as much as I anticipated at the beginning of the month. This is partially explained by its reviews which are lower than the 30% to 40% positive range I was anticipating. Paper Towns is earning much better reviews, but still barely above the overall positive level. Finally there's Southpaw, which is earning mixed reviews and its buzz is weak, so it will likely be outside the top five over the weekend. Both Ant-Man and Minions should continue to perform well, with the former having a shot at first place, if Pixels flops. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that did quite well, Lucy and Hercules. I don't think any of the new releases this week will come close to earning the same as Lucy did, but I think the depth is better this year, so 2015 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 20th, 2015
The top of the box office had a small surprise, as Ant-Man earned first place with $57.23 million over the weekend. This is a little lower than predicted, but Minions really collapsed, so Ant-Man easily won the race for the top of the box office race. Meanwhile, Trainwreck had a solid third place opening and could be on its way to $100 million, thanks in part to its target demographic and to its reviews. Overall, the box office pulled in $194 million. This is 9.6% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 30% higher than the same weekend last year. 30%. That's a massive margin of victory. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $6.20 billion, which is 8.1% more than 2014's pace. Summer is winding down, so 2015 is in a great place moving into the slower part of the year. Even if August and September are slower than average, there's almost no chance 2015 will blow through the $460 million lead it has over 2014.
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July 19th, 2015
Perhaps we’re seeing the first signs of multiplex fatigue? In the midst of a buoyant Summer at the movies, Ant-Man will debut with around $58 million, according to Sunday estimates, about 10% below expectations, and well short of the $94 million earned by Guardians of the Galaxy this time last year. It’s a very good opening, to be sure, but the second slightly disappointing debut from the Marvel Cinematic Universe this year, after The Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $191 million opening weekend back in May. We’re talking disappointment of the level of seeing Babe Ruth only hit one home run in a game here, so we need to put things in perspective. It’s the twelfth straight $50 million-plus opening for the franchise in seven years—an unprecedented box office run.
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July 18th, 2015
Ant-Man opened in first place with $22.64 million on Friday, which puts it well ahead of Minions on the Friday box office chart. On the other hand, it was a little disappointing compared to expectations. Figuring out where it will end up is deceptively tricky given the number of other Marvel Cinematic Universe films to compare it to. Ant-Man's reviews continued to tick up, and are now at 80% positive—in the same range as the first Captain America movie. It also had a similar opening day to that film. However, Captain America opened before The Avengers and one could argue that every film after that should be considered a sequel, which would tend them towards being even more front-loaded than original films. Factoring that in, look for Ant-Man to post around $56 million over its opening weekend, which will give it an easy first place debut. Unless its legs are as long as Guardians of the Galaxy’s, it won't reach $200 million in total, but it should top its budget (reportedly $130 million) so it will become a box office success. Analysts hoping for the first MCU bomb will have to wait.
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July 16th, 2015
There could be an interesting race on top of the box office charts this weekend, as Ant-Man will be looking to unseat Minions. However, while I think Ant-Man will come out on top on Friday, I think Minions will repeat over the weekend. The other new release of the week is Trainwreck, which has seen its reviews fall from 100% positive to a mere 90% positive. The amazing reviews and the success of R-rated female-centric films lately suggests it has the potential to reach $100 million. Inside Out and Jurassic World will also both hit milestones, so it should be an exciting weekend. This weekend last year, none of the three wide releases were particularly strong, which left Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in first place for the second weekend in a row with $36.25 million. Both Minions and Ant-Man will top that. Trainwreck might top that as well. It should be a good weekend for 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 10th, 2015
Next weekend, there are are two wide releases, Ant-man and Trainwreck, and while I think Trainwreck will be a bigger hit than most analysts are predicting, Ant-man is still going to dominate the box office. Because of this, it is the clear choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ant-man.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a Frankenprize featuring a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2015
June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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