April 25th, 2017
We are entering the worst time of year for the home market. The number of Oscar contenders have nearly dried up and there are more bombs than box office hits. As for the best of the new releases, The Criterion Collection release for Tampopo is the best and the only real choice for Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, the Mean Dreams DVD earns Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release of the week.
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January 18th, 2017
As expected, Hidden Figures remained in first place as the box office was dominated by holdovers. The best of the new releases / wide expansions was The Bye Bye Man, which earned fifth place with $15.20 million. On the positive side, while there was only one film to earn more than $20 million over the weekend, there were seven that earned $10 million or more. That’s really good depth. It’s good enough for an 8.5% increase from last weekend reaching $149 million. However, this is still 10% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is behind 2016 by 15% at $562 million to $659 million, but again, it is way too soon to make any predictions.
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January 12th, 2017
Six films are opening or expanding this weekend, which have a shot at the top ten. However, only one of them, Patriots Day, has a real shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only “new” film in the top five. The biggest wide release of the week is Monster Trucks, which is opening in 2,800 theaters. I didn’t see that coming. [Ed.: The final announced theater count for Monster Trucks is an even more impressive 3,119] Meanwhile, Sleepless is only opening in 1,800 theaters, while Silence is expanding into 750 theaters. We still haven’t mentioned all of the new films. As for holdovers, Hidden Figures has a real shot at first place, while La La Land should get a boost from its Awards Season success. This weekend last year, Ride Along 2 opened with just over $35 million over the three-day weekend. There’s no film that will match that figure during the four-day weekend. On the positive side, there were only four films that earned more than $10 million during the three-day weekend and this year we should have five. That’s not enough to win in the year-over-year competition. It likely won’t even be close.
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January 12th, 2017
The winners of our Blood Oath contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Underworld: Blood Wars’s opening weekend were...
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January 10th, 2017
The first weekend of the year wasn’t as potent as anticipated, as none of the holdovers held on as well as expected. This helped Hidden Figures earn first place with $22.80 million, putting it just ahead of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which pulled in $22.06 million. The box office was down 26% from last weekend to $137 million, but this is a post-holiday weekend, so this decline was expected. The box office was also down 14% from this weekend last year. It is still way too soon to compare the box office year-over-year. In fact, we should wait till The Force Awakens faded out of the top five before we can really get a picture of how 2017 will do. That was President’s Day long weekend. So once we get past President’s Day long weekend, the year-over-year comparison will begin it have some real value.
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January 8th, 2017
With one day left in a topsy-turvy weekend, we have a virtual tie at the top of the box office chart, with both studios claiming a narrow win. Disney posted the highest projection this morning, saying they are expecting Rogue One to earn $21.972 million this weekend. Fox, meanwhile, is projecting $21.8 million for Hidden Figures, and thinks that the film’s lead of about $900,000 coming out of Saturday will be enough to hold on for a win. Sunday’s performance will be key, and there are a couple of factors that make the outcome genuinely uncertain…
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January 7th, 2017
It’s looking like a surprisingly close weekend at the box office. The Friday results show three films with a real shot at top spot: Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Sing. Hidden Figures led the way on Friday with $7.6 million, putting it on pace for between $21 million and $23 million for the weekend. There’s a wide range here, because the studio has made a push to go after African-American churchgoers, so this could really boost the film’s Sunday box office. The film’s legs will be helped by its amazing reviews, as well as its A+ rating from CinemaScore. If it does land on the high end of expectations, then it has a real shot at top spot for the weekend. It does have a lot of competition, on the other hand.
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January 6th, 2017
Underworld: Blood Wars was the only true wide release of the week, but it was Hidden Figures’ wide expansion that generated the best result at $1.2 million. This is more impressive, as dramas tend to underperform action films in previews; for example, Selma pulled in just $400,000 during its previews. That film earned $11.31 million during its first weekend of wide release and Hidden Figures is expected to double that figure this weekend.
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January 5th, 2017
It’s the first weekend of the year and there’s only one wide release, Underworld: Blood Wars, plus one wide expansion, Hidden Figures. (As expected, A Monster Calls is not expanding truly wide and it won’t grow enough to make the top ten. I don’t think it will top $3 million over the weekend.) None of these films are really going to challenge the top two holdovers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing, although that pair should be in a close race for first place. This weekend last year was very similar to this weekend, with one new release, one wide expansion, and a Star Wars holdover on top. Unfortunately, this year is much weaker. 2017 is going to get off on a losing note.
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January 4th, 2017
The winners of our Rogue Pets contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’s third weekend were...
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January 1st, 2017
December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 29th, 2016
There is only one film opening wide next week, Underworld: Blood Wars. (There are also two films expanding wide or semi-wide.) Because there’s only one true wide release, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Underworld: Blood Wars.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection of previously reviewed titles.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection of previously reviewed titles.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final winner of a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection of previously reviewed titles.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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December 8th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them remained locked in first place with $60.4 million in 67 markets for totals of $424.4 million internationally and $607.5 million worldwide. It reached both $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide, which is twice the reason to celebration. On the down side, the film has run out of major markets to open in, so it will quickly drop down the chart from now on. On the positive side, the film is already in the top ten on the 2016 Worldwide chart and will climb a little bit more before it is done.
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October 11th, 2016
Fantasy action movie starring Kate Beckinsale opens January 6, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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