November 3rd, 2015
It's a short list of new releases this week for two reasons. The first reason is the previously mentioned technical problems. I need to get three days of work done today so that I can get my computer off to the shop for an upgrade. Meanwhile, I've been battling an only mostly functional computer for a week. The second reason is Inside Out is coming out and that scared away the competition. The Blu-ray Combo Pack or 3D Combo Pack are clearly the Pick of the Week this week. However, it is far from the only new release worth picking up. It's just that the rest of the contenders are much smaller releases.
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August 11th, 2015
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Despite what conventional wisdom was predicting, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place, as Fantastic Four missed even our low expectations. The Gift also did well, but the other two wide releases opened on the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend down to $132 million, so according to that number, it is safe to say summer is fading fast. Worse still, compared to last year, the box office was 29% lower, which is terrible and a clear sign that summer is already over. Granted, 2015 still has a solid lead over 2014, at $6.88 billion to $6.51 billion. A lead of 5.7% at this time of year is great and it would take an epic collapse for that to disappear anytime soon. I don't think 2015 will bounce back and start padding its lead any time soon, but I also don't think it will have 29% deficits week after week either.
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August 7th, 2015
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There could be a close race on top of the box office chart with Fantastic Four trying to unseat Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation as box office champion. This should be the number one story of the weekend; however, if I'm right and Fantastic Four does as poorly as I think it will, then the franchise will be in the hands of Marvel Studios by the end of the weekend. None of the other three wide releases are guaranteed to top $10 million over the weekend. In fact, it is very likely that one of them, Shaun of the Sheep, will miss the top five. This weekend last year was led by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles with $65.58 million. Guardians of the Galaxy was second with $42.12 million. I don't think any film opening this weekend will match Guardians of the Galaxy, while there's a chance all four combined won't match TMNT. 2015 is going to take a beating on the year-over-year comparison.
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August 4th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation matched expectations close enough to call it a victory. Meanwhile, Vacation came within 10% of Friday's predictions, but unfortunately, we weren't predicting box office success, so that's not a good thing. With the holdovers slumping as summer ends, the overall box office dipped 3.2% from last weekend. That's not the problem. The problem is the 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy broke records when it opened this weekend last year, but a 21% drop-off is still troublesome. 2015 still leads 2014 by a substantial margin at $6.67 billion to $6.25 billion, so unless 2015 really crashes, it will still have a lead going into the winter holidays.
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August 2nd, 2015
Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation will comfortably win the weekend at the box office, with Paramount projecting a total of $56 million on Sunday morning. That’s a very respectable performance by any measure, although it falls short of the franchise record, which was set by Mission: Impossible 2 15 years ago. It’s early days yet, but the prospects of another franchise chapter making around $200 million seem good, based on the excellent reviews this outing has been receiving. Overseas business is reportedly very good so far, although we don’t yet have any official figures.
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August 1st, 2015
Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation earned about $20.3 million at the box office on Friday, including $4 million on Thursday evening, according to Paramount’s Saturday morning estimate. That puts it on track for a $50 million opening weekend, which is decent money by any measure, but isn’t enough to put it in the top ten weekends of 2015, and might not even top The SpongeBob Movie to become the studio’s best opener of the year. Does that count as a disappointing start? Maybe…
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July 30th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation shouldn't have any trouble earning first place over the weekend. In fact, it should make more than the rest of the top five combined. On the downside, its real competition isn't the other films in theaters, but Guardians of the Galaxy, which set the August weekend box office record when it opened this weekend last year. Rogue Nation could have a record-opening for the franchise and still not come close to Guardians of the Galaxy. The only other new wide release of the week is Vacation, which started on Wednesday. Its reviews are terrible and its box office chances are not much better. Since nothing will top Guardians of the Galaxy's record-breaking opening, it seems 2015 will end the month on a losing note. Hopefully this is just a momentary hiccup and not an omen for how the rest of the summer will go.
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July 24th, 2015
Next weekend, there are are two wide releases, one of which, Vacation, is opening on Wednesday, which normally disqualifies it as a choice for target film. The other, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, should dominate the box office. As a result, it is the only real choice target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Yu-Gi-Oh Gx: Season 2 on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Tooken on The Encore of Tony Duran on .
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2015
June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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