This graph shows Angelina Jolie’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
There are four new wide releases this weekend, a new high point as theaters reopen and the theatrical market continues its recovery. In spite of some fairly impressive star power on display, there’s not a huge amount of doubt about which film will top the chart this weekend. Spiral, the latest incarnation of the Saw franchise is getting the widest release, in 2,811 theaters, and by far the loudest pre-release buzz. The sheer quantity of new films makes this a challenging weekend to predict, but here’s what our model has to say…
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I loved the first Maleficent, certainly more than the average critic did. The sequel, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, earned even worse reviews and struggled at the box office. Are these results fair? Or should this film have also performed as well at the box office as the first film did?
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It's a strange week on the home market, as there are no first-run releases and very few other releases to make up the difference. There are some contenders for Pick of the Week, but all of them are foreign-language films, which is again odd. In fact, two of them, Only Yesterday and The Boy and the World, are animated. However, in the end, I went with The Mermaid, which deserves to be seen by more and Blu-ray is a great way to see it.
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Sony are predicting a decline of just 50% for Spectre in its second weekend in theaters, putting James Bond’s latest incarnation on track for a final domestic box office in the neighborhood of $200 million. While well short of Skyfall’s $304 million, it welcome news for a film that’s probably right on the bubble as far as profitability is concerned.
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Three new wide releases are all, as expected, struggling to make much headway against Spectre and The Peanuts Movie this weekend, with the two returning films sitting comfortably at the top of the chart. Spectrepicked up an estimated $10.2 million on Friday for a total to date of $105.5 million, while Peanuts earned another $5.6 million, for $63.9 million so far.
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October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the finalHunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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There are three $100 million theatrical hits arriving on the home market this week, which is amazing. However, that's really all that's coming out this week. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies is the biggest of these three hits, but it wasn't the best. The best is Into the Woods and given the lack of competition, the DVD or Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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February was strong thanks to The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and Fifty Shades of Grey, both of which beat expectations. This March could actually be even better, as there are three or four films that have a decent shot at earning $100 million or more. The top film will likely be Cinderella, which has a real shot at $200 million. Insurgent will almost assuredly get beyond the $100 million mark, while Get Hard, Home, and perhaps Chappie will also get to the century mark. Last March, there were four $100 million hits, led by Divergent, which pulled in $150 million. While this March should be better than February, I'm not sure it will be better than last March. I don't think March 2015 will be much worse than last year, but I think its percentage lead will be chipped away at by the end of the month.
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We are still dealing with studio estimates for the weekend numbers, but we can at least tell you what film won, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, and roughly how much it earned, $41.42 million. The new releases were much closer than expected with Into the Woods and Unbroken both earning just over $30 million over the weekend. Because we don't have enough final numbers, we really can't compare the overall box office to last weekend or last year. So far, the final weekend of 2014 pulled in $200 million and that number should grow a little bit as box office numbers filter in. This is 52% more than last weekend and 2.3% more than the same weekend last year. I'm a little more bullish about January's box office chances after this result.
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We have a short prediction column today detailing the three Christmas day wide releases, as well as the two bigger limited releases. Sadly, none of these five films are really living up to potential and Christmas Day could be rather weak at the box office. Then again, why should Christmas be any different than the past several months. 2014 got off to such a great start. Last Christmas was busier, but not particularly strong either, so at least 2014 won't lose too badly.
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November is over and there are not a lot of positive things to say about what happened during the month. There were a couple of films that matched expectations, but there were no breakout hits and a few that missed expectations by wide margins. Granted, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 will top $300 million with relative ease, but that's still nearly $100 million lower than some people were predicting. The month ends with 2014 about $300 million behind 2013's pace and there's really no chance to catch up in December. That doesn't mean there are no films that will be worth watching in December. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies should at least earn $200 million, while $300 million is not out of the question. Additionally, there are several films that at least have a shot at $100 million at the box office, but not all will get there. At least this December and last December are on par with each other. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug topped $250 million while there were three others that topped $100 million. I think we will get the same result this month. Last year there were a lot more wide releases, but many of them bombed. I think this year the lack of competition will help more films reach their potential.
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This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the HalloweenBox Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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Maleficent opened this past summer earning mixed reviews, but was a massive hit at the box office earning just over $750 million worldwide. Was the film better than the reviews would indicate? Or was it just a really slow summer so there wasn't a lot of competition?
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Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $100.3 million in 50 markets for totals of $543.5 million internationally and $752.3 million worldwide. This makes is the biggest worldwide hit of the year so far. Granted, half of the film's international total came from China where it has made $279.75 million so far, including $56.36 million this past week, and the studio gets a very small share of the box office revenue from that market. As for new markets, the film debuted in first place in the U.K. with $20.11 million on 533 screens, including previews. This is the biggest opening of the year in that market so far. The film also did well in Mexico with $8.26 million on 3,131 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.84 million.
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Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $95.8 million in 37 markets over the weekend for totals of $400.9 million internationally and $576.3 million worldwide. Its best market remains China, where it added $120.61 million for the full week giving it a total of $222.74 million after two. These numbers are important for two reasons. Firstly, revised totals in China put the film's opening there ahead of its debut in North America. Stunning. Secondly, the film is already ahead of Avatar's final figure in that market. Granted, it's barely above Avatar's pace, as that film pulled in $221.9 million after ten days of release, but that is still great news. It held up better than most films do in South Korea earning $8.05 million on 1,096 screens over the weekend for a total of $34.62 million. In Russia, the film added $7.04 million on 2,171 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.38 million after two. The last major market was Australia, where it pulled in $4.54 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $17.32 million.
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With the recent weak performance of films such as Transcendence and Edge of Tomorrow at the box office, there’s been a lot of talk recently about how much actors and actresses are really worth to a film. The poor performance of these films hasn’t come as a huge surprise to followers of the Bankability Index, which produces valuations considerably below the $20 million that Johnny Depp reportedly earned from his lead role in Transcendence, and we thought this is a good opportunity to look at what the Index says about the most valuable actors and actresses in the business.
With Angelina Jolie making headlines for all the right reasons for her starring role in Maleficent, it seemed only fitting to start with an analysis of the most valuable actresses in Hollywood. For this chart, we’ve taken each star’s worldwide Bankability Index and divided it by the number of films they make each year to get an estimate of the average value they bring to a film, as of June, 2014.
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Maleficent rose to first place with $47.9 million in 54 markets for totals of $340.8 million internationally and $526.7 million worldwide. It became the first live-action film in Angelina Jolie's career to reach the $500 million mark. The film opened in first place in China with $22.01 million. Up next for the film is Japan and if it does well there, it could top Kung Fu Panda 2 as Angelina Jolie's biggest hit.
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Disney’s $180 million gamble on Maleficent looks to have paid off this weekend, with Angelina Jolie’s starring role carrying the film to a $70 million opening weekend, in spite of middling reviews. The film is as much a triumph for Jolie as World War Z was for husband Brad Pitt. They truly are Hollywood’s power couple.
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The weekend after a long weekend is never the best time of year to release a new movie, but at this point, summer vacation has begun for a lot of people, so both new releases should still have a lot of potential at the box office. Maleficent is the origin story for the villain from Sleeping Beauty. It should earn first place with ease. A Million Ways to Die in the West is the latest from Seth MacFarlane, but it is not earning as much praise as Ted did and its box office chances are not as strong as a result. The box office will certainly be lower than it was last weekend. However, we are more concerned with the comparison with last year. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Now You See Me and After Earth, but neither opened with more than $30 million. Granted, Fast and Furious 6 earned $35 million over the weekend, but that's still lower than usual for a number one film during summer weekend. The top three films this weekend should be better than the top three films last weekend, but I think 2014's depth will hurt it in the year-over-year comparison.
It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013.
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