February 10th, 2020
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The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat.
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January 13th, 2020
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The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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January 13th, 2020
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It’s a really bad week on the home market. Granted, there are three wide releases on this week’s list, which is better than most weeks. However, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is the biggest and the best of these three releases. That’s not a good sign. There are not even a lot of smaller releases to make up for the weakness at the top.
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January 8th, 2020
The home market returns to normal after two of the worst weeks I’ve ever seen. Keep in mind, I said normal, not good. There’s only one big release of the week, Joker, and not much else that is selling well enough to make the main list. In fact, not everything in the main list is selling well enough to get there on just an average week. The contenders for Pick of the Week include Brick, The Lighthouse, and Zombie Land Saga: Season One. It was a really close call and it came down to the roll of the dice, with Zombie Land Saga winning out.
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January 7th, 2020
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I loved the first Maleficent, certainly more than the average critic did. The sequel, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, earned even worse reviews and struggled at the box office. Are these results fair? Or should this film have also performed as well at the box office as the first film did?
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December 31st, 2019
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I’m going to start this list by saying I don’t know if any of the DVD / Blu-rays on this week’s list are actually coming out on Tuesday. December 31st is a Tuesday, so it would make sense that something is coming out; however, December 31st is also a placeholder date and it is possible that any number of these releases were given that placeholder date by Amazon and then they forgot to update it. There are almost no releases on this week’s list that most people will have heard of, with the main exception being Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, which is only coming out on Video on Demand. The Blu-ray is currently in my Blu-ray player and I hope to get the review done over the weekend. If I stick with my usual rules about what gets featured on this list and what is relegated to a secondary title, then there would be almost nothing to talk about, so I’m including a few releases that aren’t even in the top 10,000 on Amazon’s sales rankings and I’m not bothering with any secondary releases. I promise next week will be more normal.
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November 20th, 2019
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Ford v Ferrari opened in top spot on the international chart, just like it did domestically. However, it wasn’t nearly as dominant earning $21.4 million in 41 markets. The film wasn’t nearly as strong internationally as it was domestically in most markets, but it did do really well in Russia with an opening of $3.33 million on 1,044 screens, easily earning first place in that market. It’s wasn’t as successful in either the U.K. or France, earning $2.3 million each. On the other hand, the film wasn’t even able to crack $1 million in Spain. This is surprising, as the box office results of sports movies tend to be proportional to their popularity and this kind of auto racing is more popular internationally than it is domestically.
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November 17th, 2019
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If the weekend estimates hold, then Ford v Ferrari, with an estimated $31.04 million, will open with almost as much as the rest of the top five combined. A lot of time when something like this happens, it is because there’s a monster hit opening. In this case, Ford v Ferrari will need strong legs just to top its production budget and hit $100 million at the box office and it is dominating the box office due to really weak competition. Fortunately, the film should have strong legs thanks to its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore. The film is not doing as well internationally with an opening of $21.4 million in 41 markets. This includes a $3.2 million debut in Russia and $2.3 million debuts in the U.K. and France. If the film can earn some Awards Season buzz, then it could have the legs to get to $250 million worldwide, which should be enough to break even sometime during its home market run.
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November 14th, 2019
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Terminator: Dark Fate will lose money. That is almost guaranteed at this point. However, it did manage to top its production budget at the worldwide box office in just its third weekend of release, meaning it is going to save face, mostly. The film earned $29.9 million in 53 markets over the weekend for totals of $150.9 million internationally and $199.4 million worldwide. This includes a $6.0 million opening in Japan; however, the film opened on Friday and not Saturday, which is the usual opening day in that market. That was still enough for first place over the two-day weekend and more than it made here, given the relative size of the two markets. It also opened in first place in Taiwan with $1.1 million over the three-day weekend and $1.4 million including Thursday. The film’s biggest market remains China, where the film earned $7.21 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $45.85 million.
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November 6th, 2019
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Terminator: Dark Fate cracked the $100 million mark worldwide during its first weekend. $101.9 million to be more precise, giving it an early total of $123.6 million so far. Sadly, this is just $72.9 million internationally in 48 markets and that’s just not enough given the film’s production budget. Its biggest market was China, where it opened in second place with $26.84 million over the weekend for a total opening of $28.58 million. The film debuted in first place in South Korea with $7.19 million on 1,315 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $9.79 million. Had the movie merely cost $100 million, then I would be a lot more happy with this result, but the movie cost a lot more than that and needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even any time soon. I just don’t see that happening.
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November 5th, 2019
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It was a bad weekend at the box office, with Terminator: Dark Fate missing expectations by a significant degree. Harriet was able to beat expectations, but it wasn’t enough to truly compensate. Furthermore, Arctic Dogs and Motherless Brooklyn were practically non-factors at the box office. The box office did grow 9.5% from last weekend reaching $115 million. More importantly, this was 21% lower than this weekend last year. 2019’s deficit grew to 5.6% or $540 million and is now behind 2018’s pace by $9.15 billion to $9.70 billion. It is important to point out that while 2019 is being crushed by 2018, it is still on pace to be the second largest box office of all time, while its ticket sales are better than 2017’s pace, so as disappointing as the year as been so far, there are still reasons to celebrate.
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November 3rd, 2019
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As expected, Terminator: Dark Fate is going to open in first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it is failing to match even the low end of expectations with an estimate of $29 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are not great, but they are better than this opening. The film is doing much better internationally with an estimated $$72.9 million debut, including an estimated $30 million opening in China. However, that’s not enough. The film needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even and since the only major market left to debut in is Japan, it’s not going to get there.
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November 2nd, 2019
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Terminator: Dark Fate opened in first place on Friday, but it only made $10.6 million, well below expectations. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are good, but not great, meaning it won’t have the legs needed to overcome this slow start. Look for about $28 million domestically this weekend. Early reports have it performing better internationally with a likely $30 million debut in China, but again, this is below expectations and not enough given the film’s $185 million production budget.
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October 31st, 2019
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It’s the first weekend of November, which is the unofficial start of both the Christmas blockbuster season and of Awards Season. There are four films hoping to take advantage of time of year to create some box office success. Of these, only Terminator: Dark Fate is expected to be a true box office hit. It will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the rest of the new releases earn in total. I think Harriet will do okay and could even crack $10 million during the weekend. On the other hand, Arctic Dogs still has no reviews and that’s a really bad sign. Finally there’s Motherless Brooklyn, which is opening in well under 2,000 theaters. This weekend last year, Bohemian Rhapsody opened with more than $50 million and even the high end predictions don’t have Terminator: Dark Fate earning that much. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019 in the year-over-year competition.
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October 30th, 2019
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Better Days opened in first place in China with $86.11 million, which was also enough to give it first place internationally. This is an amazing start, all things considered. The movie was supposed to open in June, but the Chinese censors yanked the film at the last minute, then announced a new release day less than a week before the film opened. It is a minor miracle it was able to do this well.
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October 28th, 2019
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It was a super close race for top spot on the weekend box office chart with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker neck-and-neck. In fact, they changed positions over the weekend and even reversed positions from the weekend estimates. Both of these films topped expectations by a small degree, as did most of the new releases. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough, as the box office fell 24% from last weekend to $105 million. This is also lower than the same weekend last year, but by a tiny 0.7% margin. I’m not going to get upset about a decline this small, but it does mean 2019 has fallen further behind 2018’s pace with the deficit growing to $520 million / 5.4% at $9.00 billion to $9.52 billion.
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October 27th, 2019
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Joker is returning to first place on the weekend chart with $18.9 million, which is a tiny bit ahead of expectations. However, it is in a close enough race with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil that the pair could switch places when the final numbers show up tomorrow and I wouldn’t be too surprised. Internationally, the film is earning an estimated $47.8 million on 14,000 screens in 79 markets for totals of $571.5 million internationally and $849.1 million worldwide. It is now the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time worldwide, and is on pace to become the first R-rated film to reach $1 billion globally.
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October 26th, 2019
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Joker wasn’t gone from top spot for long, as it earned first place on Friday with $5.46 million, putting it on pace for close to $19 million over the weekend. This is very close to our prediction, but it is ranking better, due to marginally-weaker-than-expected competition. It also reportedly became the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time, at least worldwide. It is not going to catch up to The Passion of the Christ domestically.
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October 25th, 2019
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The final weekend before Halloween is rarely a good time to release a film and the paltry selection of new releases on this list shows this year will be no different. The Current War: Director’s Cut is the only film earning good reviews, but it is opening in the fewest theaters by far. Countdown has the worst reviews, but it is a horror film opening just before Halloween, so its opening weekend could be okay. Black and Blue is in the middle in terms of reviews, theater count, and box office chances. Sadly, it is very likely all three films will open below $10 million over the weekend. There’s a slim chance none of them open in the top five. By comparison, this weekend last year saw only one wide release, Hunter Killer, which bombed. This year will be much better in terms of new releases, but none of the holdovers will match Halloween on top. 2019 does have much better depth, so I think we will get a small win in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 23rd, 2019
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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil topped the international chart with $117.0 million in 56 markets during its debut weekend. This includes a $23.41 million first place debut in China, which is a little more than the original opened with there. On the other hand, the film slipped a little in Russia earning $11.1 million during its opening there, although it still managed first place in that market. On the other hand, the film really struggled in Mexico, when compared to its predecessor, earning $7.62 million, which is barely more than half of the first film’s debut there. Furthermore, the film has debuted in every international market, so it won’t be able to rely on new releases to hang around on the international chart for long.
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October 22nd, 2019
The weekend went about as well as expected, overall. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil didn’t open as well as expected, but Zombieland: Double Tap helped make up the difference. The overall box office was still down 6.5% from last weekend at $140 million; however, this was 5.3% higher than the same weekend last year and that is a much more important number. 2019 is still behind 2018’s pace by 5.3% or $500 million at $8.86 billion to $9.35 billion, but that’s not as bad as it has been this year.
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October 20th, 2019
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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil did bounce back on Saturday and that is helping it earn an estimated $36.0 million during its opening weekend. It is still missing expectations, but by a more reasonable margin. Its internal multiplier is about the same as the first film managed, despite this film earning weaker reviews. Audience reactions were the same, as both films earned an A-rating from CinemaScore. As for the movies international numbers, it is pulling in $117.0 million, but it also opened everywhere, so it needed a monster start and I’m not sure this was it. The film did have a faster opening that its predecessor did in China with $22.4 million, while it cracked $10 million in Russia with an an opening of $10.7 million. The film cost $185 million to make, so this is not a fast enough start to break even in the short term, but with Disney+ starting next month, it could break even eventually.
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October 19th, 2019
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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil wasn’t expected to be a monster hit, but its previews gave reason to be optimistic. That optimism is gone as a result of Friday’s estimates. The film pulled in just $12.5 million on Friday, meaning it will have to have nearly as good legs as the original had just to avoid opening below the low end of expectations. That seems unlikely, especially with its weaker reviews, although it did manage the same A rating from CinemaScore. Maybe it will really bounce back today, but we won’t really know till the weekend estimates come out tomorrow.
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October 18th, 2019
Zombieland: Double Tap had the better previews of the two wide releases earning $2.85 million last night. Solid reviews should also help the film’s legs during its opening weekend and it should have no trouble topping Zombieland’s debut and our $25 million prediction. In fact, it has a shot at $30 million over the full weekend.
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October 18th, 2019
There are two wide releases this week and both of them are delayed sequels. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is widely expected to top the box office chart this weekend, but it is also widely expected to fail to match the original by a huge margin. On the other hand, Zombieland: Double Tap will likely only manage third place, but it has a real shot at matching Zombieland, at least in terms of raw dollars. By comparison, this weekend last year saw the near record-setting debut of Halloween. (It would have set the October record, had Venom not set it two weeks earlier.) I really thought 2019 would have a chance to win in the year-over-year comparison, but unless Maleficent: Mistress of Evil really beats expectations, that’s not going to happen.
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October 1st, 2019
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September ended on a bit of a weak note, but overall the month was excellent helping 2019 gain some ground on 2018. Can October continue this trend? There are certainly some potential box office hits coming out this month, starting with Joker, which opens the first weekend of the month and should be the biggest hit of the month. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is aiming for $150 million and should be a hit, even if it doesn’t match the original at the box office. There are also a handful of films with an outside shot at getting to $100 million and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them made it to that milestone. Meanwhile, last October, Venom broke records during its opening weekend, while A Star is Born had stellar legs helping both earn more than $200 million domestically. I don’t think the top two films will be able to match that this year, but we do have better depth, for the most part, so perhaps 2019 will continue its winning ways and close ground, at least by a little bit.
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July 10th, 2019
Fantasy adventure starring Angelina Jolie and Elle Fanning opens October 18 ... Full Movie Details.
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