This graph shows Chiwetel Ejiofor’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
The wait is finally over for fans of Dr. Stephen Strange as the sequel to Doctor Strange is finally at the doorstep of North American theaters. Doctor-Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will open in an outstanding 4,534 locations (including IMAX) this weekend, which places it seventh on the all-time widest openings list, nestled between two animated sequels, 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (4,529 theaters) and 2019’s The Secret Life of Pets 2 (4,561 theaters). It’s over 100 more locations than The Batman, which arrived in 4,417 locations just over two months ago, giving Multiverse of Madness the widest opening of the post-pandemic era.
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I loved the first Maleficent, certainly more than the average critic did. The sequel, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, earned even worse reviews and struggled at the box office. Are these results fair? Or should this film have also performed as well at the box office as the first film did?
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Doctor Strange was the first time that magic was really strongly introduced into the Marvel Cinematic Universe and some thought the film was a bit of a risk as a result. Instead, the film became the second biggest introductory film in the MCU, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy. Is it as good as its box office numbers would suggest? Or has the MCU become self-sustaining generating hundreds of million of dollars regardless of quality?
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Martian opened in early October and became a huge box office and critical success. The film became the biggest hit in Ridley Scott's career and recently picked up seven Oscar nominations. Will I love it as much as the average critic did? Or will I be in the minority here?
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Z for Zachariah opened below the Mendoza Line, but it was also a VOD premiere, which never helps the box office numbers. Should it find an audience on the home market? Or was it going to fail at the box office no matter how its was released?
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There are practically no films on this week's list that I think have a shot at box office success. That's not to say there are no films earning great reviews, but all of them have something that will hold them back. Most of the time, it's a simultaneous Video on Demand run. This includes Turbo Kid (Video on Demand); Z for Zachariah (Video on Demand); and Queen of Earth (Video on Demand). All could find audiences, but they will find them on the home market.
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I don't think it is unfair to call Amistad Oscar-bait. It is a film based on a powerful real life story that came out in theaters in December, right in the heart of Oscar season. However, it didn't live up to expectations, either with critics or at the box office. It did pick up four Oscar nominations, but it failed to convert any of those into wins. Then again, "Not quite good enough for Oscars." is hardly a damning statement. Was the movie hurt by unrealistic expectations? Has it aged well in the years since it came out? And is the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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12 Years a Slave recently won the Best Picture Oscar. This creates huge expectations. I am a little worried the expectations are so great the film will be weak by comparison. Is that the case? Or is the film really as good as its reviews and accolades would indicate?
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The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like last year, this category is not truly competitive with one nominee way out ahead according to experts. And also like last year, I'm supporting an underdog. (In fact, I'm cheering for two underdogs.)
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SAG handed out their awards last night, and while there were not many surprises, there was one major upset, at least in my mind. Dallas Buyers Club led the way with two wins, making it the new Oscar favorite.
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The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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Independent Spirit Award started the Awards Season this week, handing out its nominations. 12 Years a Slave led the way with seven nominations, but it wasn't the only film to pick up multiple nominations.
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Kinky Boots came out in 2006 and did relatively well in limited release. Most limited releases don't crack the $1 million mark at the box office. But I think the studio was hoping for a whole lot more. This explains why it is coming out on DVD this week as a bargain release from Echo Bridge. Is it worth checking out if you missed it the first time? And despite being a bargain release, does it have any extras?
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It is not a busy week when it comes to limited releases on this week's list, but at least we have a couple that are earning stellar reviews and could expand wide. All is Lost has the reviews to become a big hit and an Awards Season player, but it doesn't have the buzz. 12 Years a Slave has the buzz, as well as the reviews. While opening in limited release is always a risky maneuver, 12 Years a Slave has a better shot at opening in the top ten than it does of bombing outright.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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