Home Market Releases for November 17th, 2015

November 17th, 2015

It's an off week of sorts. The biggest release is extended edition of The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. In fact, there are five versions of this film that are near the top of the list. There are not a lot of other first-run releases on this week's list, which means we have to look to the classics for potential Pick of the Week contenders. Fortunately, there are plenty of those worth picking up. Leading the way is The Collected Works of Hayao Miyazaki on Blu-ray. It is expensive, but you get a lot for your money. There is another top-notch release this week, Rush - R40 Live on DVD or Blu-ray, which wins the coveted Puck of the Week for best Canadian release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases were Hunted Down

October 26th, 2015

Most of the new releases were not expected to do well at the box office. ... Almost no one saw this coming. We had some near-record bombs this weekend and even the best of the new releases were terrible. This left The Martian in first place; in fact, the top three spots and four of the top five were held by holdovers. The best new release, The Last Witch Hunter, barely cracked the $10 million mark. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend to $105 million. This was also 9.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Midweek numbers were better this year than last year, so the year-over-year actually improved and 2015 now has a 5.2% lead over 2014 at $8.60 billion to $8.18 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: Rock Bottom

October 24th, 2015

Where to start? There are so many new releases to talk about and none of them did well. Some did so poorly that talking about them seems mean. So, let’s start by saying that Friday’s box office chart was led by The Martian, while Goosebumps has a shot at repeating on top of the chart, with each film earning about $14 million to $15 million. Meanwhile, Bridge of Spies should earn third place over the weekend with between $11 million and $12 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases were Simply Resistible

September 9th, 2015

While first trying to come up with picture / title ideas for the weekend columns, I saw the image above and was reminded of "Simply Irresistible" by Robert Palmer. Ever since then, the song has been stuck in my head. It's been there for more than 48 hours now and I'm starting to think I will need medical help getting rid of it. The overall box office was more or less in line with Friday's expectations. A Walk in the Woods matched predictions (nearly) perfectly, while The Transporter Refueled was on the low end of expectations. Fortunately, War Room showed off strong legs leaping into first place. It was able to help the overall box office grow 3.5% to $90 million over the three-day weekend. This was 38% higher than the same weekend last year; however, this is due to a misalignment of holidays. Compared to last labor day, the box office was 18% lower. With that, the summer of 2015 is officially over and while records were broken, the overall box office was actually the second best on record, falling just short of 2013 at $4.48 billion to $4.75 billion. Year-to-date, 2015 has a 5.3% lead over 2014 at $7.53 billion to $7.15 billion. More...

Contest: Check Up: Winning Announcement

September 2nd, 2015

The winners of our Check Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for We Are Your Friends opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Compton Wins the War over the New Releases

August 31st, 2015

August is over and the number one film over the full month remained in first place for the third weekend in a row. Only one of the three new releases did well, War Room, as it topped the high end of exceptions. The other two wide releases bombed, in the case of No Escape, and bombed hard, in the case of We Are Your Friends. The overall box office plummeted 17% to just $88 million over the weekend. That's so low that I double-checked the numbers. Granted, there are likely a few limited releases that we don't have weekend numbers for yet, so this number isn't final. However, even the final number won't be that much higher than this, certainly not high enough to make a real difference. This was also 21% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by nearly $400 million at $7.39 billion to 7.00 billion, so this slump isn't terrible news. However, I would really like it to end sooner rather than later. More...

Weekend Estimates: Compton Tops War Room for Third Win

August 30th, 2015

Straight Outta Compton will win a third weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, but it won’t be without a struggle. The biopic lost on Friday to War Room, a faith-based film that opened in just 1,135 theaters, and the weekend race will finish with just a couple of million dollars between the two films, with Compton’s $13.2 million edging out War Room’s $11 million. Compton now has $134 million in the bank, making it the fifth-highest-grossing biographical film after American Sniper ($350 million), Lincoln ($182 million), A Beautiful Mind ($170 million), and Catch Me if You Can ($165 million). If you’re playing the Oscars game at home already, it’s worth noting that three of the four films above it received Best Picture nominations (Catch Me if You Can being the odd-one-out). More...

Friday Estimates: War Room Escapes Dog Days of Summer

August 29th, 2015

Only one of the three new releases did well on Friday, and it was a film that many analysts thought would bomb. Despite earning the worst reviews and having the smallest theater count of the three new releases, War Room earned first place on Friday with $3.875 million. Faith-based films tend to have a higher internal multiplier than most films, because their target audience tends to show up at theaters on Sunday after church. Because of this, the film might open with a theater average above $10,000, which would give it an opening weekend of over $11 million. That’s probably a little too optimistic, but second place with $10 million is within reach. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases have a Friendly Reception?

August 27th, 2015

It's the last weekend of August and there are three films being dumped into theaters this week. None are expected to earn even $10 million, but there might be a bit of a race to see which of these movies will be the best of the bad group. No Escape already opened on Wednesday, but it didn't have a great start, despite playing in just over 3,000 theaters. We Are Your Friends opens on Friday in about 2,300 theaters, but it has a shot at second place. The final wide release is War Room, which is debuting in just over 1,000 theaters. However, it is a faith-based film, so it could be a surprise hit earning close to $10 million, or it might miss the Mendoza Line. Unless one or more of these films completely blows away analysts, Straight Outta Compton will remain in first place for the third weekend in a row. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases and a limited release that nearly made the top ten. That's very similar to what it is this weekend. I think it will be relatively close, but 2015 will likely fall just shy of 2014 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Contest: Sinister Six: Winning Announcement

August 26th, 2015

The winners of our Sinister Six contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Sinister 2 opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Check Up

August 21st, 2015

Next weekend is the last weekend in August and it isn't hard to tell looking at the releases. There are three wide releases, sort of. War Room is only opening in just over 1,000 theaters, so it likely won't make an impact at the box office. No Escape is opening in just over 3,000 theaters, but it is opening on Wednesday. That leaves We Are Your Friends as the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for We Are Your Friends.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, comprised of Bottoms Up on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second Frankenprize, comprised of Knifed Up on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a third Frankenprize, comprised of Father Forgive HIm on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2015 Preview: August

August 1st, 2015

It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...