Weekend Predictions: Can Lego Save 2019?
February 8, 2019
I’m of two minds when it comes to this weekend. On the one hand, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part should be the biggest hit of the year so far and could be the first true monster hit of the year. On the other hand, it might not be enough to keep pace with last year. Only one other new release, What Men Want, has a shot at $20 million, while the other two releases, Cold Pursuit and The Prodigy, might not reach $10 million. This weekend last year, wasn’t quite as strong when it came to new releases, but it had a massive advantage when it came to holdovers. I think 2019 has a small advantage here, but I’ve been burned before, so I won’t be too surprised if 2019 loses in the year-over-year comparison, again.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part is the fourth theatrical release in the Lego franchise. The first film earned some of the best reviews of 2014 and was a monster hit earning more than $250 million domestically. Since then, none of the follow-ups could match either of those numbers. The latest installment, The Second Part, could come the closest. In fact, it could become the first $200 million hit of the year. Its reviews are an asset at 89% positive, while it is the first major animated film to come out since Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, so there’s plenty of pent-up demand. Also, next weekend is a long weekend, so that should help its legs. If it can open with more than $60 million over the weekend, then a $200 million domestic run is possible. Even a $55 million opening weekend will still be worth celebrating and I think that figure is much more likely.
What Men Want is a remake of the 2000 monster hit, What Women Want, only with gender-bent casting. The reviews were right on the overall positive level for a while, but have since fallen to under 50% positive. It’s buzz isn’t great, but it is loud enough to be a midlevel hit. I’m predicting an opening weekend of over $20 million, $22 million to be more precise, which is good for counter-programing, especially this time of year.
Cold Pursuit is the latest Liam Neeson movie in which he plays a father who goes after revenge when one of his family members is wronged. The film’s Tomatometer Score is 86% positive, but its average review is just 6.8 out of 10, so while most critics liked it, few loved it. That said, that’s just fine for an action film like this. On the down side, the film’s buzz hasn’t grown and there’s controversy around something from Liam Neeson’s past that has come up. (I don’t know what it is, but I’m going on the basis that ignorance is bliss in this case.) This has hurt the film’s box office potential and just hitting $10 million is no longer a sure thing. I do think it will get there, but barely with just $11 million.
We could have all four wide releases open in the top four spots on the box office chart this weekend. The Prodigy is the big question mark here. Its reviews are mixed, but that’s not unexpected for a horror film. Its buzz is rather quiet, which is more troubling. I think it will get to fourth place with just under $7 million, but if it misses that mark by even a little bit, then it will likely have to settle for fifth place.
The Upside should be right behind with just over $6 million over the weekend. It will take a few more weeks to get to $100 million domestically, but it will get there, assuming the competition doesn’t squeeze it out of too many theaters.
- The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part Comparisons
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- What Men Want Comparisons
- Cold Pursuit Comparisons
- The Prodigy Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, The Upside, What Men Want, The Prodigy, Cold Pursuit, Lego, Liam Neeson, Gina Rodriguez