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Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for May 7th, 2019

May 8th, 2019

It is yet another slow week on the home market with very few first-run releases of note. There are three contenders for Pick of the Week: Better Call Saul: Season 4, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part on 4K Ultra HD, and My Hero Academia: Season Three, Part One. It is too close to call, so I’m declaring a three-way tie. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Alita Battles Disbelievers and Wins

February 20th, 2019

The weekend wasn’t as bad as it could have been, at least not at the top. Alita: Battle Angel topped all but the most bullish expectations with $42.25 million from Thursday through Sunday. Isn’t It Romantic matched expectations nearly perfectly, while Happy Death Day 2U struggled, but should still break even, eventually. Overall, the box office rose 8.4% from last weekend, but plummet 57% from the same weekend last year. On the positive side, that was the weekend Black Panther debuted, so we knew a drop-off like this was to be expected. On the negative side, as of the end of business on Monday, 2019 was behind 2018’s pace by a margin of over $350 million or nearly 23%. 2019 will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance of completing a comeback. Hell, it will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance to avoid a worst-in-a-decade end result. More...

Weekend Estimates: Alita Wins Battle for Top Spot, but Production Budget is Winning the War

February 17th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel is topping the weekend chart with an estimated $27.8 million over the three-day weekend and $33.0 million over four. Adding in Thursday’s result gives us a total opening of $41.7 million, which is more than we predicted and we were already a little more bullish than most. Its reviews were bouncing above then sinking below the overall positive level throughout the week, but they seem to have settled on the south side at 58% positive. We won’t get the CinemaScore until Monday, but I suspect it will be substantially better than this and be in the B plus / A minus range. We don’t have solid numbers for its international weekend, but estimates have it in the $40 million range during its second weekend of release. This would have been a great run so far, had the film not cost so much to make. More...

Friday Estimates: Alita Battles it’s Way to the Top

February 16th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel started strong on Thursday with $8.72 million and held on well on Friday down just 14% to $7.53 million. Granted, this was the worst decline of the three new releases, but it was also the only one to open on Thursday, so I think this is a strong showing. The reviews remain right on the edge of the overall positive level, so it should have acceptable legs. Look for between $25 million and $26 million over the three-day weekend and $30 million over four. This would be a good start, if the film cost $100 million to make. However, with a budget between $160 million and $170 million, depending on tax breaks, even getting to $100 million domestically will just be saving face. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will there be a Lot of Love At the Box Office this week?

February 14th, 2019

It’s a very odd weekend at the box office. Not only is it a long weekend with most people having Monday off, but Valentine’s Day is Thursday and two of the three wide releases opened on Wednesday. The biggest new release is Alita: Battle Angel, but the film reportedly cost as much as $200 million to make and there’s a chance it will open with less than $20 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. Isn’t It Romantic should get the biggest boost thanks to Valentine’s Day. Meanwhile, Happy Death Day 2U is hoping to top the original. As for this weekend last year, it was the weekend Black Panther debuted. 2019 is going to get destroyed at the year-over-year comparison, again. If it loses by less than 50%, I will be happy. That’s how bad things have gotten. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: 2019 Continues its Slump

February 12th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part missed expectations over the weekend, leading to yet another disappointing overall performance at the box office. Granted, the box office did climb by 55% from last weekend to $112 million. However, last weekend was the worst weekend at the box office in more than a year. Additionally, $112 million is still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $1.01 billion; however, this is still 15% lower than last year’s pace and the slowest pace since 2011, in terms of raw dollars. If we go by ticket sales, we have to look all the way back to 1999 to find a slower start to the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Lego Tops Chart, but Fails to Match the Original

February 10th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part reportedly cost $99 million to make and it will earn that much domestically, so it will very likely make a profit and Warner Bros. will be fine. That said, it is estimated to only manage $34.4 million over the weekend, which is about 40% lower than expectations and almost exactly 50% lower than the first film opened with. Its reviews are 84% positive, while it managed an A minus from CinemaScore, so it really should have done better than this. This hopefully isn’t a sign that the overall box office is unhealthy, but just a sign that WB has pushed the franchise too much too soon. Internationally, the film started with $18.1 million in 63 markets. This includes a first place, $5.2 million on 1,301 screens in the U.K. It also managed first place in Russia with $1.7 million on 2,493 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fourth place in Brazil with just $707,000 on 854 screens, which is the weakest start in the franchise. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Lego Save 2019?

February 8th, 2019

I’m of two minds when it comes to this weekend. On the one hand, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part should be the biggest hit of the year so far and could be the first true monster hit of the year. On the other hand, it might not be enough to keep pace with last year. Only one other new release, What Men Want, has a shot at $20 million, while the other two releases, Cold Pursuit and The Prodigy, might not reach $10 million. This weekend last year, wasn’t quite as strong when it came to new releases, but it had a massive advantage when it came to holdovers. I think 2019 has a small advantage here, but I’ve been burned before, so I won’t be too surprised if 2019 loses in the year-over-year comparison, again. More...

Preview: February

February 1st, 2019

2019 got off to a slow start as the biggest release of January, Glass, missed expectations and as a result, 2019 lost every weekend in the year-over-year comparison. Unfortunately, 2019 isn’t going to turn things around this month, as last February, Black Panther broke all of the records. That doesn’t mean there are no bright spots this month. Both The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World are virtually guaranteed to reach $100 million domestically, while I wouldn’t be too surprised if one or both hit $200 million. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits, one of which could turn into a surprise $100 million hit. That said, there’s a chance all nine movies opening this month combined will earn less than Black Panther did last year. More...

Weekend Prediction: Smallfoot Looking for Big Box Office

September 26th, 2018

The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Home Market Releases for December 19th, 2017

December 19th, 2017

By this time next week, Christmas will be over. This resulted in a short list, but not a bad week. Dunkirk is the biggest new release of the week and it is award-worthy and a contender for Pick of the Week. It isn’t the only contender, The Amicus Collection, Stronger, A Town Called Panic: The Collection, and others are too. As for the best of the best, I went with The Tragically Hip: A National Celebration on DVD or Blu-ray. More...

International Box Office: Kingsman King of the World with $61.18 million

September 28th, 2017

Kingsman: The Golden Circle made its international debut and it was mostly really good news, as it topped the chart with $61.18 million on 11,623 screens in 64 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $11.40 million on 602 screens. This is a massive improvement over the $6.4 million its predecessor opened with. Likewise, this film earned $6.01 million on 1300 screens in Russia, up from $3.5 million for the first film. It wasn’t able to grow that much in Australia, but it did increase its haul to $4.56 million on 405 screens, up from $3.22 million on 372 for the original film. The film has yet to open in France, South Korea, China, and Japan, so this is a great start. It very likely won’t have the same legs, but even so, $400 million worldwide is a solid milestone to aim for, given this start. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Kingsman Earns Gold with $39.02 million

September 26th, 2017

The weekend box office was good, for a September weekend, but disappointing compared to expectations. Kingsman: The Golden Circle did earn first place, but with only $39.02 million. Granted, this is great for September, but $10 million less than our prediction, and our prediction wasn’t even on the high end of expectations. The Lego Ninjago Movie struggled in third place with $20.43 million. The shine has come off the Lego franchise. Fortunately, It continues to be strong and that helped the overall box office. We saw 5.6% growth from last weekend reaching $117 million. This is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year, so there’s clearly reason to celebrate. 2017 is still behind 2016 in the year-to-date comparison, but it closed the gap to 4.7% or $390 million at $7.94 billion to $8.33 billion. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Earn Gold?

September 21st, 2017

There are three wide releases coming out this week, which is one more than anticipated. Kingsman: The Golden Circle is widely expected to earn first place during the weekend, but The Lego Ninjago Movie is widely expected to have longer legs and that could give it the win overall. Meanwhile, Friend Request is just hoping to earn a spot in the top five. It’s not a sure bet that it will. Meanwhile, It will relinquish first spot and fall to third place, but still earn a ton of money. This weekend last year, the one-two punch of The Magnificent Seven and Storks helped the overall box office pull in $104 million. The top three films this year should earn more than that, to give 2017 another win. It will still take a lot to recover, but this result at least makes that possible. More...

2017 Preview: September

September 1st, 2017

As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit. More...

Note: This list contains actors who appeared in at least two movies in the franchise.

Note: This list contains people who contributed to at least two movies in the franchise.