This graph shows Will Ferrell’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
As the summer heats up, two animated features seek to dominate the box office leading into the Fourth of July weekend. The newest entrant is the highly anticipated sequel from the beloved Despicable Me franchise, Despicable Me 4. This latest installment bursts onto screens in a staggering 4,428 theaters, aiming to dethrone the current box office champion after a three-week reign.
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Gru, supervillain-turned-Anti-Villain League-agent, returns for a new era of Minions mayhem, alongside his wife and fellow Anti-Villain League-agent Lucy, their three adopted girls—Margo, Edith and Agnes—and the newest member to the Gru family, Gru Jr., who is intent on tormenting his dad. The family is forced to go on the run when they become targeted by escaped criminal Maxime Le Mal and his femme fatale girlfriend Valentina.
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Barbie continues to count up impressive numbers on a daily basis, crossing the $500 million mark domestically last Friday, and now with a 27-day North American total of just under $542 million. The film has fared even better overseas as it has charted $660 million from international markets. As Barbie continues to hit milestones and blaze trails, another Warner Bros movie buzzes into theaters in the way of the latest DC superhero film, Blue Beetle, while the R-rated talking-dog comedy, Strays, also makes its arrival.
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When Reggie, a naïve, relentlessly optimistic Border Terrier, is abandoned on the mean city streets by his lowlife owner, Doug, Reggie is certain that his beloved owner would never leave him on purpose. But once Reggie falls in with a fast-talking, foul-mouthed Boston Terrier named Bug, a stray who loves his freedom and believes that owners are for suckers, Reggie finally realizes he was in a toxic relationship and begins to see Doug for the heartless sleazeball that he is.
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The long awaited release of Barbie and Oppenheimer is finally here. The pair, fondly referred to by the moniker, “Barbenheimer” is poised to headline one of the biggest movie-going weekends in a few years. As different as two films could possibly be, the duo will undoubtedly make their imprint on the Summer movie-going season. Barbie will start out in 4,243 theaters, while Oppenheimer will launch in 3,610 locations across North America. For one more week however, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One will remain the most widely available film, showing in 4,321 venues.
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Hamilton is coming to Disney+… next week. I’m mentioning it right up front, because it is by far the biggest streaming news of the week, so much so that it could drown out the actual new releases of the week. There are some high-quality releases to check out, including Athlete A, but that might be too bleak to attract an audience. My Spy, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, and Into the Unknown: Making Frozen II are more light-hearted and should do better with viewers.
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We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others.
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Barely escaping an avalanche during a ski vacation in the Alps throws a seemingly picture-perfect family into disarray as they are forced to reevaluate life, and how they truly feel about each other.
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Tomorrow is Christmas Day, which is a surprisingly good day to release a movie, and two new films are hoping to take advantage of this. Holmes and Watson is by far the bigger of the two releases, but despite the comedic talent in the movie, its reviews are, well, practically non-existent. There’s only one review and it is negative. Not that long ago, I thought the film would still open with $10 million for the day, as Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly do have box office drawing power. However, the lack of reviews hurts and the buzz isn’t loud enough to compensate. I think $8 million is more likely.
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November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point.
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With July 4 falling on a Tuesday this year, this is less a holiday weekend, and more the beginning of a holiday week, and it’s bookended by new releases from two of the industry’s most reliable franchises. Despicable Me 3 starts off festivities this weekend with a solid-but-unspectacular $75.4 million from a record-setting 4,529 theaters. Breaking The Twilight Saga: Eclipse’s record for widest opening weekend of all time is no small feat for Universal, but it’s an ominous sign for the franchise that the only film to open in close to this number of theaters and pull in similar numbers at the box office was Shrek Forever After, which opened with $70.8 million in 4,359 theaters back in 2010. That was the last Shrek movie, and this might be a good time for Gru to call it a day.
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May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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Zoolander came out in 2001. It wasn't beloved by critics and wasn't a major hit in theaters, but did well enough on the home market to develop a loyal following. Zoolander 2 hit theaters earlier this year and failed to live up to its predecessor at the box office. Is this because its target audience had forgotten about the first film? Or did it fail at the box office, because it was just really bad?
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This week, there are not many releases to talk about and one of them, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, is dominating the list so much that I could ignore the rest of the list and very little of substance would be lost. I'm not going to do that, but I could. The Box Set is a contender for Pick of the Week, but I'm still waiting for the screener. City Lights is another contender for Pick of the Week, but in the end, I went with the Canadian movie, Mountain Men on DVD, which is Puck of the Week.
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I featured Drunk History on a Holiday Gift Guide and I stand by that recommendation. It's got a really simple set-up and a better than expected execution. On the other hand, I was worried that it's high concept meant a really short shelf life. Would I grow tired of the show after just three seasons? Or is it still entertaining?
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As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Star Wars juggernaut continues to roll through box office records all around the world this weekend. It will pass $1 billion globally today, Sunday, in just its 12th day in release—one day faster than Jurassic World. That blockbuster figure is largely thanks to an incredible $544 million after just ten days domestically, far ahead of Jurassic World’s $402 million at the same point in its run. The Force Awakens has now broken records for every milestone from $50 million to $500 million, with more to fall. The current record for fastest to $550 million is also Jurassic World, which reached the mark in 24 days. Star Wars will do it in eleven. After that, we will start looking at some serious all-time records.
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There are five wide releases / wide expansions this week, none of which will even come close to Star Wars: The Force Awakens' second weekend of release. The rest of the box office combined won't come close to The Force Awakens' sophomore stint. It looks like Daddy's Home has the advantage for second place, while Joy should be close behind. The Big Short expands wide on Wednesday and its five-day total should be close to the previous two films' three-day totals. On the downside, it looks like both Concussion and Point Break will open on the outside of the top five. The Force Awakens will make more than the entire top ten made this weekend last year, so 2015 will end the year on a very positive note in the year-over-year comparison.
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November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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After a couple of soft weeks at the box office, both new wide releases beat expectations. In fact, Home nearly doubled predictions. Get Hard also beat expectations, albeit by a smaller margin. Add in solid runs by the holdovers and the overall box office was very strong at $150 million. This is 19% higher than last week and 7.3% higher than the same weekend last year. We can thank Home entirely for this win. If it had merely matched predictions, 2015 would have lost the in the year-over-year comparisons. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by a 2.0% margin at $2.37 billion to $2.32 billion.
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DreamWorks Animation has been having a tough time of it recently. Aside from How to Train Your Dragon 2, their last three films, Penguins of Madagascar, Mr. Peabody & Sherman and Turbo were all financial failures, and, as an animation house, they are stuck with a business model that demands putting $100 million–$200 million into each film and hoping for a $500 million-plus global hit. That’s made doubly-difficult when you’re operating as a standalone entity and can’t fall back on the wider resources of the studio during hard times.
The opening weekend for Home, projected at $54 million, according to distributor Fox, is therefore very welcome news indeed. It marks the best opening by a non-sequel for the production house since Monsters vs. Aliens opened with $59.3 million on this weekend in 2009, and the third-best non-sequel debut in their history behind that film and Kung Fun Panda’s $60 million start in 2008.
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There is an actual race at the box office this weekend. This is rare, because there's usually one obvious number one film, as studios don't want to deal with competition. However, this week, both Get Hard and Home have a shot at first place with $30 million or so. Additionally, there are two other films, Insurgent and Cinderella, that are aiming to reach $20 million over the weekend. That's a lot of depth. There is one final film of note, It Follows, which is expanding semi-wide and could find a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Noah with $43.72 million, while two other films, Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted earned more than $10 million. 2015 has better depth, but it won't be as strong at the top. I'm not sure which year will come out on top, but it should be close.
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February was strong thanks to The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and Fifty Shades of Grey, both of which beat expectations. This March could actually be even better, as there are three or four films that have a decent shot at earning $100 million or more. The top film will likely be Cinderella, which has a real shot at $200 million. Insurgent will almost assuredly get beyond the $100 million mark, while Get Hard, Home, and perhaps Chappie will also get to the century mark. Last March, there were four $100 million hits, led by Divergent, which pulled in $150 million. While this March should be better than February, I'm not sure it will be better than last March. I don't think March 2015 will be much worse than last year, but I think its percentage lead will be chipped away at by the end of the month.
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Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in theaters nearly a decade ago. It earned good reviews and did well at the box office managing nearly $90 million worldwide on a $25 million budget. However, it became a classic on the home market and many think it is among Will Ferrell's best movies. Rumors of a sequel persisted for quite a while before Anchorman: The Legend Continues finally came out. It earned better reviews and nearly doubled the first film's numbers at the worldwide box office. Is this because the quality is also better? Or did it unduly benefit from nearly ten years of demand?
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After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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