Weekend predictions: Quantumania looks to top $100 million on debut
February 17, 2023
The Ant-Man sub-franchise has always been one of the quieter corners of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with the first Ant-Man film opening with $57.2 million back in 2015, and Ant-Man and the Wasp debuting to $75.8 million in 2018. With that track record, and the post-pandemic market, an opening over $60 million should be considered a success for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. It’s been tracking ahead of that number for a while though, and its Thursday previews suggest it will top $100 million this weekend—a welcome boost for a market that’s been waiting quite a while for a major release.
Here’s what our model thought about Quantumania going into the weekend:
An opening around $66.5 million from 4,000 or so theaters is the benchmark for the franchise. Disney managed to book it into 4,345 locations this weekend, which should boost box office by around 8%, all else being equal. On top of that, audience interest in the film has been high, possibly because it is expected to be pivotal in Phase 4 of the MCU, and in spite of some tepid reviews so far.
That adds up to an expected weekend a little over $80 million ahead of the release of preview numbers this morning. And those numbers look encouraging:
No Marvel movie earning more than $15 million from previews has ended up with less than $100 million on opening weekend. So Quantumania’s $17.5 million puts it nicely on track to post a nine-digit debut. It’s far from a done deal though. Topping $100 million will require a previews-to-weekend ratio of 5.71. Most Marvel movies have managed that, but Thor: Love and Thunder did not, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever wasn’t far over that number. In general, films in the franchise have been getting more front-loaded over time.
Combining our fundamentals and previews predictions gives a final number of $116.8 million for Quantumania this weekend. That would represent a multiplier of 6.68 on the Thursday previews, just a little better than the multiplier for Ant-Man and the Wasp. That feels a smidgen high to me, but I’m pretty confident that the last Marvel outing will come in over $100 million this weekend.
The other film opening wide this weekend is making smaller waves:
Marlowe is a classic piece of counter-programming, and opened on Wednesday to give itself a little breathing space. The thriller, starring Liam Neeson, has picked up $760,000 so far.
Not many films are released on a Wednesday these days, so our model has to compare Marlowe with films from a wide range of genres. I think its prediction might be a shade on the high side, but $2 million seems doable this weekend. The main issue for the film is a lack of visibility as it goes up against a super hero tentpole.
Here’s what that model thinks the top 10 will look like.
Needless to say we’re looking at a big “up” week at the box office, with the final result almost entirely dependent on how Ant-Man performs. Magic Mike’s Last Dance will be worth looking out for though, as it is doubling its theater count from last weekend. That might be producing an overly-optimistic prediction, but it looks likely to hold in second place in it second weekend in theaters.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Ant-Man, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Marlowe, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Ant-Man, Liam Neeson