This graph shows Kristen Wiig’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
As the summer heats up, two animated features seek to dominate the box office leading into the Fourth of July weekend. The newest entrant is the highly anticipated sequel from the beloved Despicable Me franchise, Despicable Me 4. This latest installment bursts onto screens in a staggering 4,428 theaters, aiming to dethrone the current box office champion after a three-week reign.
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Gru, supervillain-turned-Anti-Villain League-agent, returns for a new era of Minions mayhem, alongside his wife and fellow Anti-Villain League-agent Lucy, their three adopted girls—Margo, Edith and Agnes—and the newest member to the Gru family, Gru Jr., who is intent on tormenting his dad. The family is forced to go on the run when they become targeted by escaped criminal Maxime Le Mal and his femme fatale girlfriend Valentina.
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Despicable Me 3 is the fourth film in the Despicable Me franchise. I’ve previously reviewed the first three films and bought the first film, because I loved it. The second film was weaker, but still great. The third film was Minions. It’s a kids movie, nothing more. There’s been a downward trajectory in the quality that’s quite noticeable. Does it continue here? Is it at least better than Minions was?
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The box office was mostly as expected during November. Granted, Thor: Ragnarok over-performed and Justice League underperformed, but overall there were no real surprises. This means the month started slow, but we got a couple of wins in the end and that bodes well going into the final month of the year. That said, December is a weird month. There are five weekends, but only seven films that I’m sure are opening truly wide. Additionally, five of those seven films are opening Christmas weekend. I’ve never seen a month this lop-sided. There are no real wide releases the first two weeks of the month, so we will likely start slow again, but when The Last Jedi debuts, we should see explosive growth at the box office. It will open with more than any film last December made and that should help 2017 cut into 2016’s lead. 2017 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but the month could do well enough to cut 2016’s lead to under $250 million. That’s my goal. If that happens, I will be happy.
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May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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Ghostbusters felt like a mistake from the very beginning. It is a remake of one the greatcomedies of all time. Then the first trailer came out and it was complete garbage. However, the international trailer was actually relatively good and the writer / director, Paul Feig, hadn’t made a bad movie since Unaccompanied Minors. Does this film live up to the original? If not, is it as good as the average Paul Feig movie? Or were the haters right on this one?
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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Zoolander came out in 2001. It wasn't beloved by critics and wasn't a major hit in theaters, but did well enough on the home market to develop a loyal following. Zoolander 2 hit theaters earlier this year and failed to live up to its predecessor at the box office. Is this because its target audience had forgotten about the first film? Or did it fail at the box office, because it was just really bad?
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The Diary of a Teenage Girl opened with amazing reviews and even scored some major SeasonNominations. However, it never really caught on with moviegoers. When this happens, there's the chance the film can be dismissed as one aimed solely at critics and not the average moviegoer.
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There's quite a few strong limited releases on this week's list, including Suffragette, which is earning by far the loudest buzz. Its reviews are good, but not great. On the other hand, Difret's reviews are great, but it has far less mainstream appeal. Bone Tomahawk has the potential to become a cult favorite, but it is playing on Video on Demand, so it likely won't make an impact at the box office.
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Two points before we get to the films on this week's list. One, the column is late. Sorry. Two, anyone else noticing a decrease is stability with Firefox? It has been crashing a lot the past few days, hence the delay with this column. This week’s list is filled with many films that are earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and are playing on Video on Demand. Iris is the best film coming out this week, but Far from the Madding Crowd is probably going to be the biggest hit.
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The Skeleton Twins is the fifth film I reviewed this week and it is the only one that earned impressive reviews. This does raise expectations, but is that a mistake? Or does this film truly deserve the critical praise it has received?
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There's a large number of limited releases, including a few that are earning good reviews and strong buzz. One of these is The Drop, but it is opening in too many theaters and I think that will hurt it at the box office. If I were to guess, The Skeleton Twins will be the biggest hit on this week's list.
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It's a slow and shallow week on the home market. Not only are there no prime releases, we quickly run into filler as we look down the list of best selling new releases on Amazon.com. The biggest release of the week is Muppets Most Wanted, which is one of nine reviews on this week's list. It is also the best release of the week and the best choice for Pick of the Week. Next week should be more interesting, as TV on DVD season begins.
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This weekend is almost as busy for limited releases as last week, and on the plus side, there are a handful of films that are worth checking out. Only Lovers Left Alive and Joe are both earning great reviews. On the other hand, Only Lovers Left Alive is probably too "Art House" to thrive, while Joe is opening too wide and on Video on Demand, so its box office chances are also limited. Dancing in Jaffa is earning perfect reviews, but documentaries rarely have breakout success. Finally, Disco Singh could be a surprise hit, as it could be on track to break records in its native India.
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Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in theaters nearly a decade ago. It earned good reviews and did well at the box office managing nearly $90 million worldwide on a $25 million budget. However, it became a classic on the home market and many think it is among Will Ferrell's best movies. Rumors of a sequel persisted for quite a while before Anchorman: The Legend Continues finally came out. It earned better reviews and nearly doubled the first film's numbers at the worldwide box office. Is this because the quality is also better? Or did it unduly benefit from nearly ten years of demand?
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Despicable Me came out in 2010 and it was the first digitally animated film released by Universal. There was a lot of pressure to do well, because its level of success would not only determine if more Despicable Me movies would be made, but if the studio would continue to release digitally animated films in general. It beat expectations. Not only was it a great movie, but it earned more than $500 million worldwide on a $69 million budget. Needless to say, Despicable Me 2 was given the greenlight right away. However, can it live up to its predecessor? If not, is it still worth checking out?
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We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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Every week we try and find a limited release with potential to expand significantly. This week there are two such films that appeared to be contenders: Girl Most Likely and Only God Forgives. Then the reviews came in and the chances of limited release success became a lot more limited. There are a few films earning stunning reviews: The Act of Killing, Blackfish, and Ways to Live Forever. I'm not sure any will expand significantly. Grabbers' reviews are not quite as strong, but it is the film I'm looking forward to seeing the most.
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For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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