This graph shows Reese Witherspoon’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
As the Christmas holiday approaches, there are plenty of options for movie-goers. The only question is what to watch? Spider-Man: No Way Home opened last Friday and took nearly everyone by surprise as it posted an opening domestic weekend of $260 million, placing itself between 2019’s Avengers: Endgame and 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War as the second-biggest opening of all time. The film is currently showing in 4,336 locations, which makes it the 30th-widest opening of all time, just behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. Spider-Man: No Way Home might not be challenged at the box office, but there are still a wide array of films for every interest.
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February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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Christmas is rapidly approaching, so most of the big releases have already hit the home market. The biggest box office release on this week’s list is Kingsman: The Golden Circle, but its reviews were only mixed. The biggest release overall is Game of Thrones: Season Seven, while the only other competition for Pick of the Week is Election: The Criterion Collection. I’m going to award the title to Game of Thrones, even though the screener didn’t arrive until Monday afternoon.
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Not for the first time, reports of the death of North American film-going have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, if it’s possible for one film to change the perception of the entire market, It is pretty much, well, it. With an opening expected to be around $120 million—Warner Bros. is saying $117.15 million, although that’s due in part to caution around the effects of Hurricane Irma; the actual figure could be closer to $125 million, depending on how the storm plays out—the film breaks all sorts of records by a huge margin.
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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Sing was the last big animated film released in 2016 and it was a good year for animated films. Both Zootopia and Finding Dory earned stunnign reviews and more than $1 billion worldwide. Sing couldn’t compete with those box office numbers, but is it at least close in terms of quality?
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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Hot Pursuit is utterly failing to live up to its name this weekend, with an anaemic $13.3 million opening—the worst for Reese Witherspoon since Cruel Intentions in 1999, and her worst ever for a wide-release movie, when adjusted for inflation. The Avengers: Age of Ultron wasn't really expected to be threatened in first place, and is actually doing quite well for a movie that opened with close to $200 million. It will be down about 60% this weekend to $77.2 million, per Disney, the second-best second weekend ever, just ahead of Avatar, and some way behind The Avengers.
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April is over and there was good news and bad news. Good news: Furious 7 crushed the competition, and broke records along the way. Bad news: Furious 7 crushed the competition and no other April release will earn as much in total as Furious 7 earned during its opening day. Fortunately, Furious 7 was so strong that it carried April of 2015 to a draw when compared to April of 2014. May has a lot of similarities to April. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is expected to break records during its opening weekend and even the low end has it earning more than $1 billion worldwide. Unfortunately, no other film is going to come close to that figure. There are five other films with a potential to reach $100 million at the box office. The keyword there is "potential". There's a chance less than half of those five films will get to that milestone. And like last April, last May had much better depth with five films that reached $100 million, including four that surpassed $200 million. Age of Ultron will earn more than the combined totals of Maleficent, last month's winner, and X-Men: Days of Future Past, which placed second for the month. I am a little concerned about the lack of depth this month and this could cause May to lose in the month-over-month comparison in the end.
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Wild is a drama based on a real life person that came out in December. This movie screams Oscar Bait. However, while its reviews were amazing, but it never really became a major player during Awards Season. It did pick up a couple of Oscar nominations, including one for Reese Witherspoon; however, it failed to live up to expectations. Is it busted Oscar-bait? Or should it really have performed better?
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two leading actor categories, starting with Best Lead Actress. One actress is so far ahead of the rest of the field that there isn't even a consensus on who the second place actress should be.
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The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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Like every other week, new releases on the home market come out on Tuesday. Unlikely every other week, Christmas Eve is on Wednesday. Christmas Eve is the busiest shopping day of the year, but it is mostly last minute food purchases and almost no one is paying attention to new DVD and Blu-ray releases. This explains why there are so few new releases of note. That's not to say there are no releases worth checking out; in fact, there are four contenders for Pick of the Week. Continuum: Season 3 (DVD or Blu-ray); The Good Lie (Blu-ray Combo Pack); and The Trip to Italy (DVD or Blu-ray) were all in the running. However, in the end, I went with Pride (DVD or Blu-ray).
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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There are two films opening in limited release this week that have a chance of picking up Awards Season nominations. Wild is earning the better reviews, but it is also one of the widest limited releases of the week. Still Alice is only having an Oscar-qualifying run, which means it might not put a lot of advertising into selling movie tickets until its regular release in January.
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There are not a huge number of limited releases opening this weekend, but there are a few that might thrive in limited release. This includes Mud, the widest limited release of the week, and also the best-reviewed. Add in a great cast, and the film might not collapse under the weight of its theater count.
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