This graph shows Ben Affleck’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
The latest Bond movie has finally reached North American shores and hits theaters in large fashion, arriving in a massive 4,407 theaters, which places it 14th on the all-time widest openings list (coming in one spot, and one theater more than 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker). No Time to Die’s opening count also towers over its predecessor, Spectre by nearly 500 theaters. Worldwide, the film has already scored over $121 million ($35 million in the United Kingdom alone).
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In 1386, Marguerite de Carrouges claims she has been raped by her husband’s best friend and squire, Jacques Le Gris. Her husband, knight Jean de Carrouges, challenges Le Gris to trial by combat—the last legally sanctioned duel in France’s history.
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The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last MarchCaptain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January.
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Jack Cunningham once had a life filled with promise. In high school, he was a basketball phenom with a full university scholarship, when suddenly, for reasons unknown, he walked away from the game, forfeiting his future. Now years later, Jack is spiraling down, triggered by an unspeakable loss, and drowning in the alcoholism that cost him his marriage and any hope for a better life. When he is asked to coach the basketball team at his alma mater, which has fallen far since his glory days, he reluctantly accepts, surprising no one more than himself. As the boys start to come together as a team and win, Jack may have finally found a reason to confront the demons that have derailed him. But will it be enough to fill the void, heal the deep wounds of his past, and set him on the road to redemption?
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It is a slow week with less than a dozen releases in the main section, and that includes two late reviews. There’s no more than that for the secondary Blu-ray releases. That said, a high percentage of these are worth picking up with many Pick of the Week contenders. For example, the biggest release of the week, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, is one of the best, as is one of the smallest releases, Miss Kiet’s Children. However, in the end, I went with Coco, which technically came out a couple of weeks ago, but the screener arrived late and it really deserves the title of Pick of the Week.
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October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point.
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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is the first in a series of standalone movies movies Disney is planning for the Star Wars franchise. There were some who questioned whether or not audiences would show up to a Star Wars movie if it wasn’t directly part of the overall story. Turns out the answer to that question is yes, to the tune of over $1 billion worldwide. This was nearly 50% less than The Force Awakens earned, but is it also much weaker in terms of quality?
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It is an interesting week on the home market with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominating the competition. However, it is only coming out on Video on Demand and doesn’t come out till Friday. As for Tuesday releases, there are a few contenders, but no film that immediately jumps out as the Pick of the Week. If you go with quality, extras, and overall audience appeal, then Sing on Blu-ray Combo Pack comes out on top. I would also definitely checkout Insecure: Season One and Lifeboat, if you don’t already own the latter.
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There’s a lull in the quality and quantity of releases on the home market, one that will continue until the holiday releases start coming out. That’s not to say there are no releases worth picking up. Under the Shadow is an amazing horror film and the DVD is a Contender for Pick of the Week. However, the winner of that honor is The Criterion Collection release for His Girl Friday oni Blu-ray.
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December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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There are a number of limited releases coming out this week spread from Wednesday through Sunday. This includes several that are aiming for Awards Season glory: 20th Century Women, Hidden Figures, Silence, and others. There might be too many great films on this week's list, which means some will not live up to their box office potential.
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After Superman Returns struggled at the box office and The Dark Knight became a surprise $1 billion hit, the folks at Warner Bros. decided to reboot the D.C. movies as D.C. Extended Universe using the dark and gritty style of the Dark Knight Trilogy. That hasn’t worked out so far. Man of Steel barely broke even and the mixed reviews made a few people worried about the franchise’s future. The dour interpretation of Superman didn’t work and the editing and pacing was a mess, but at least it had an interesting villain. Batman v Superman was terrible and had one of the worst villains of any comic book movie I’ve seen. When that film was eviscerated by the critics, Warner Bros. stepped in and made last minute changes to Suicide Squad. Did it work? Nope. But is it better than BvS?
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Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million.
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Three wide releases are coming out this week, which is one more than expected. The Accountant is clearly the biggest of the three, but its reviews are falling into the danger zone. Kevin Hart: What Now? is hoping to be the biggest stand-up comedy movie since Eddie Murphy’s Raw. Finally there’s Max Steel, which I didn’t think was going to open truly wide. Then again, its theater count is 2,034, so it is opening barely wide. This weekend last year, Goosebumps led the way with $23.62 million. I really thought The Accountant would top that, but I no longer think that will be likely. Worse still, there were five films that earned more than $10 million last year, but there will only be three of them this week. 2016’s slump will continue.
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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Christian Wolff is a math savant with more affinity for numbers than people. Behind the cover of a small-town CPA office, he works as a freelance accountant for some of the world’s most dangerous criminal organizations. With the Treasury Department’s Crime Enforcement Division, run by Ray King, starting to close in, Christian takes on a legitimate client: a state-of-the-art robotics company where an accounting clerk has discovered a discrepancy involving millions of dollars. But as Christian uncooks the books and gets closer to the truth, it is the body count that starts to rise.
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The Curse of Great Expectations hit Captain America: Civil War, as it had a monster opening, but still missed even the low end of expectations at $179.14 million. This is the best opening for any film this year, so Disney should be more than happy with this result. Overall, the box office pulled in $237 million, which is 121% more than last weekend. Granted, it is the official start of summer, so an increase like that is to be expected. More importantly, it is 80% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if you compare this weekend to the start of summer last year, 2016 still comes out ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin of 1.8%. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead, which grew to 7.0% at $3.77 billion to $3.53 billion.
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It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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The first weekend in October promises to be better than the average weekend in September was, but then again, it would practically have to. Gone Girl is aiming for first place and most analysts think it will get there. On the other, Annabelle has an outside shot at top spot over the weekend. That seems unlikely, but thanks to its genre, it has a better shot at earning first place on Friday's daily chart. The final wide release of the week is Left Behind, which as it turns out isn't opening truly wide. The buzz is so bad that some expect the film to open below the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Gravity opened in first place with $55.79 million. No film is going to open with that much money. In fact, all three wide releases combined might not make that much. 2014 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison, but frankly we should all be used to that by now.
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September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
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The Jack Ryan franchise is a strange one. There have been four films so far, with a fifth on the way, and during that time, four different actors will have played the titular role. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit hits theaters in mid-January, so it is a perfect time to release the four earlier movies on a Blu-ray box set. (Or to be more accurate, re-release the 2008 Blu-rays in one box set.) How many of these earlier films are worth checking out? And is the box set good value?
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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While there are a lot of new releases listed on Amazon.com, it isn't long before you run into filler. Worse still, the top two selling movies, Jack Reacher and Save Haven, are just mediocre movies. The Great Escape is coming out on Blu-ray this week, which would normally be a reason to celebrate. However, a lot of reviewers are complaining about the poor video quality. The film needed, and deserves, a full restoration, but that didn't happen. We need to look further down the list to find a Pick of the Week contender, and we find one in 30 Rock: Season Seven.
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This movie came out during the height of the Bennifer backlash. Gigli did so poorly with critics and moviegoers that a lot of people were prejudging this film as soon as it was announced. It earned three Razzie nominations; however, Raquel Castro won a Young Artist Award for her performance in the film. Now that the mess surrounding the film is nearly a decade in the past, is it worth checking out? Or would it have failed under the best of circumstances?
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Voting is closed in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and Argo is the clear favorite to pick up the Best Picture award, based on the opinion of nearly 500 entrants. Ben Affleck's thriller took an impressive 80% of the vote, more than six times the score of Lincoln, which took second place in the poll. Coincidentally, the contest has predicted the winner of the Best Picture Oscar 80% of the time in the 15 years we've been running it. Quite a few other categories have strong favorites, but there are also some really close calls, and it looks as though the awards will be shared by several films tonight.
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there are nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen. Let's take a look at the nominees, and their chances to claiming the crown on Sunday.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the Best Director, which is one of the stranger races this year. Before Awards Season began, I thought Kathryn Bigelow would be the favorite. She wasn't even nominated. The evidence suggests Ben Affleck will win. But again, he wasn't even nominated. So with the top two choices not even on the list of nominees, we are looking at the best of the rest.
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Directors Guild of America Awards were this weekend and the big winner shouldn't surprise too many people, assuming they've been paying attention. Argo won yet again and given this, Ben Affleck should be the favorite to win an Oscar at the end of the month... except he wasn't even nominated.
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The Directors Guild of America handed out their nominations for Feature Films last week and Documentaries today. No, I have no idea why they split up their announcements. Usually, there's a lot of overlap between the DGAs and the Oscars, but that's not the case this year, so we again have some surprises.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out their awards last night, and the trend of surprises continues. Les Miserables led the way with three awards, only one of which I was truly expecting. Meanwhile, Argo won more awards than Lincoln. I don't think anyone was predicting that.
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The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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Taken 2 is set for a second weekend at the top of the box office charts with $22.5 million, although its 55% decline from last weekend makes it clear that the film won't have anything like the legs of its predecessor, which fell only 17% in its second outing. That will make for a tight pack of films at the top of the chart this weekend, with Argo leading the charge. Ben Affleck's film is set for $20.1 million this weekend and is showing signs of having very good word of mouth: it was up 47% from Friday to Saturday and looks likely to fall by around 35% on Sunday -- impressive figures these days. Sinister will have the rare distinction of opening at the top of the chart on Friday and finishing the weekend in third place (Lionsgate has its gross pegged at $18.25 million over three days).
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2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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