This graph shows Jake Gyllenhaal’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Currently enjoying a 15-day domestic haul of over $371 million, The Super Mario Bros. Movie again stands alone as this week’s widest release. Last weekend, the film scored the best second weekend ever for an animated movie. Only dropping 21 cinemas this week, the blockbuster film is still widely available in 4,350 locations. While Mario shouldn’t have any problems leading the box office, like last week, it contends with a flurry of newcomers making their big screen debuts.
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Sergeant John, on his last tour of duty in Afghanistan, is teamed with local interpreter Ahmed, who risks his own life to carry an injured John across miles of grueling terrain to safety.
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On the eve of the Thanksgiving Holiday, two Walt Disney movies dominate this week’s widest release list with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever once again sitting at the top, showing this week in 4,258 theaters (and sitting comfortably with nearly $600 million in worldwide earnings). Wakanda Forever will try to fend off studio relative Strange World and the high-flying Korean War aerial drama Devotion at the box office.
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Despite debuting last week, the arrival of Morbius could not oust The Lost City from its place as widest release. This week is a different story however as last week’s box office chart topper becomes the new widest release while fending off the two newcomers, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Ambulance.
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Two desperate brothers attempt a robbery in order to pay for their dying mother’s health care. The job goes south and during their escape, they steal an ambulance. But things only get worse when they discover it's occupied by a dying heart patient.
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Last week was good news for the movie industry as two wide releases hit the big screen and A Quiet Place: Part II, which logged a pandemic-record 3-day opening of $47.5 million in 3,726 locations, and $57 million over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. The horror sequel currently sits at $65.2M in domestic earnings. Cruella, last week’s second-place finisher, collected $26.5 million over the 4-day weekend and retains its widest-release status for the second consecutive week, going from 3,892 theaters last week, to 3,922 this week. This bests A Quiet Place: Part II which comes in this week in 3,744 locations. New this week from Universal Pictures and Dreamworks Animation comes Spirit Untamed, a family adventure starring Isabela Merced, with Jake Gyllenhaal and Julianne Moore. The film arrives in 3,211 theaters. The other wide release to debut this week is Warner Bros’ The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It. The supernatural horror feature starring Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga will open in an 3,102 locations…
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Spider-Man: Far From Home was the first installment in the M.C.U. to come out after Endgame. It not only needs to tell a story by itself, it has the unenviable goal of setting up the post-Infinity Stones era of the M.C.U. Is it able to accomplish both of these tasks?
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There are a trio of films on this week’s list that are Awards Season adjacent: Battle of the Sexes, Stronger, and Victoria and Abdul. All three earned some pre-release Awards Season buzz, but I’m not sure any of them will be serious contenders. Hopefully at least one of them will be a box office success.
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February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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There are few films on this week’s list, but most of them are earning good reviews. Two of them, Manchester by the Sea and Nocturnal Animals, are also earning Oscar buzz and I wouldn’t be surprised of both did very well on the per theater average chart. On the other hand, I’m interested in seeing Girls und Panzer The FILM.
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As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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Pixels leads a group of three wide releases looking to battle for limited box office dollars. It appears to be on track for first place, but with not as much as I anticipated at the beginning of the month. This is partially explained by its reviews which are lower than the 30% to 40% positive range I was anticipating. Paper Towns is earning much better reviews, but still barely above the overall positive level. Finally there's Southpaw, which is earning mixed reviews and its buzz is weak, so it will likely be outside the top five over the weekend. Both Ant-Man and Minions should continue to perform well, with the former having a shot at first place, if Pixels flops. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that did quite well, Lucy and Hercules. I don't think any of the new releases this week will come close to earning the same as Lucy did, but I think the depth is better this year, so 2015 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last week and I'm getting to them a little late, because I needed to organize the whole Awards Season stories. Firstly, I've decided to use the year the movies were released not the year the awards are handed out, unlike what we did last year. This means both will have 2014 as the year. Not ideal, but it is better to fix the mistake now than carry on making it. Secondly, the headlines are just going to be the name of the Awards and either nominations or winners. This will make it easier for readers to find later on. As for the Independent Spirit Awards nominations, Birdman led the way with 6 nods, while Boyhood, Nightcrawler, and Selma were right behind with 5 each.
September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
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There's very little on the home market that stands out. 300: Rise of an Empire is the biggest movie coming out this week, but it is far from the best new release. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of new releases in competition for Pick of the Week. The A Hard Day's NightCriterion Collection Blu-ray is absolutely worth picking up, but there are no new extras for the Blu-ray, so that is a strike against it. Masters of Sex: Season One earned great reviews, but the extras on the DVD or the Blu-ray are only good. Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Six is loaded, but its price is just too high. In the end, I rolled a dice and Star Trek: The Next Generation came out on top, but it really is a close race.
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Enemy is the latest film from Denis Villeneuve and Jake Gyllenhaal. It was actually made before Prisoners was, but that was a lot more mainstream movie and it earned a theatrical release first. There are many words that can be used to describe Enemy, but mainstream isn't one of them. Is it worth checking out for fans of the unusual? And is the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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There might be a close race at the box office this weekend. The buzz surrounding Prisoners is growing enough that it should earn first place, but Insidious Chapter 2 might hold on well enough to challenge the newcomer for top spot. The other new release for the week is Battle of the Year, which is opening in fewer theaters than I thought it would and with much worse reviews. It likely won't be a factor. In fact, there's a slim chance that the 3-D re-release of The Wizard of Oz will earn more this weekend than Battle of the Year will. The best new releases from this week last year was End of Watch, which only managed $13.15 million. This is close to what it cost to make, but it is low for a number one film. On the other hand, last year had much better depth than this year will have, so 2013's winning streak might come to an end.
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August ended, and we should be very grateful for that. Lee Daniels' The Butler was a surprise hit, while We're the Millers did better than expected. However, most other films that were expected to be solid hits failed to live up to expectations. Fortunately, August of 2012 was even worse, so 2013 regained the lead on the year-to-year comparison during the month. Looking forward, there is exactly one film that will likely become more than a midlevel hit in September: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2. That film has a chance to reach $100 million in total. Most of the rest of the new releases will be lucky if they get halfway there. Fortunately, September of 2012 was even worse. Hotel Transylvania was a surprise hit, earning nearly $150 million, and there were a few others that topped $50 million, but there were also several outright bombs. If we can avoid those types of bombs, then 2013 should continue its winning streak.
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End of Watch was released in September, which is usually a terrible sign. It didn't seem like a bad movie from the trailer, and there was a lot of buzz going in, but still, that release date is usually a death sentence. Its reviews turned out to be better than expected, award-worthy, in fact. But it was only able to become a midlevel hit. Granted, it was profitable thanks to its low budget and it is one of the best runs for the studio. Will it be able to find an audience on the home market?
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