March 17th, 2014
It's a good week / bad week on the home market. The good news is there are four films coming out this week that earned some level of Awards Season buzz. The bad news... there are four films coming out this week that earned some level of Awards Season buzz and they scared away the competition. Two of those four films are strong enough to be contenders for Pick of the Week, Frozen on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and American Hustle on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. Unfortunately, I'm still waiting for the screeners for both of those movies, so I'm not sure which of those two is the Pick of the Week. Fortunately, the screener for 12 Years a Slave arrived and the Blu-ray is Pick of the Week material.
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March 2nd, 2014
The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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March 2nd, 2014
Even with awards shows dominating industry headlines this weekend, three movies, none of which are nominated for anything, will manage to top $20 million at the box office. Top of the pile will be Liam Neeson actioner Non-Stop, which will debut with a shade over $30 million. That's the best performance for a non-sequel movie Neeson has headlined. Not far behind, Son of God is projected to earn around $26.5 million this weekend, and Fox is projecting it to top the chart on Sunday. The third movie topping $20 million will be The LEGO Movie, which passes $200 million in the process in its 4th weekend in release.
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February 27th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there were nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen.
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February 27th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we end this with the two most prestigious awards, starting with Best Director. You could generously call this a two-horse race, but in reality there is only one director expected to win.
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February 25th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. This race is twice as competitive as the Best Adapted Screenplay, by that I mean it is a two-way race for the Oscar and not a runaway race.
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February 20th, 2014
RoboCop rose to first place with $35 million in 37 markets for a total of $70.28 million after three weeks of release. The film's biggest opening came from Russia where it earned first place with $5.72 million in 1,153 screens. It opened in second place in Mexico with $2.90 million on 564. It earned third place in South Korea with $3.67 million on 635 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.31 million. It slipped to third place in the U.K. with $2.53 million on 436 screens for a two-week total of $8.16 million.
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February 20th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, finishing with Best Lead Actress. Unlike last year, this year the race is far more competitive in nearly all of the of the four acting categories this year. The person seen as the favorite has switched, more than once, and at the moment, I'm not sure who is going to win.
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February 20th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like last year, this category is not truly competitive with one nominee way out ahead according to experts. And also like last year, I'm supporting an underdog. (In fact, I'm cheering for two underdogs.)
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February 18th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. This is one of the least competitive races this year. One actor has consistently pulled in win after win and I would be shocked if Oscar night wasn't the same.
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February 18th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress, which is again not a very competitive category this year. I'm not saying it is impossible for upset to happen here, but it is very, very unlikely. (On a side note, except for changing the links and using another poster, this is an exact cut and paste from last year. This category is slightly more competitive that last year, but not by enough to matter.)
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February 1st, 2014
WGAs handed out their awards on Saturday and depending on who you talk to, there were a couple of major upsets. There was certainly at least one upset, but the other awards are less surprising.
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January 29th, 2014
The Wolf of Wall Street remained in first place with $35.27 million on 5,472 screens in 40 markets for an international total of $125.49 million. This is already substantially more than the film has pulled in domestically, plus it has a number of major market debuts ahead. This past weekend, the film opened in first place in Australia with $4.46 million on 325 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.68 million. Meanwhile, it remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.95 million on 506 screens over the weekend for a total of $17.94 million after two weeks of release. It had a very similar weekend at the box office in Germany with $5.49 million on 597 screens, while it is $14.11 million in that market, also after two weeks of release.
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January 21st, 2014
It was a record-breaking weekend with Ride Along earning the biggest January opening weekend and the biggest MLK long weekend. Needless to say, it crushed expectations. Additionally, The Nut Job overcame terrible reviews to earn a solid opening, at least according to estimates. Overall, the box office pulled in $176 million over the three-day weekend, which is 26% more than the three-day weekend last week and last year. Over the four-day weekend, the box office pulled in $211 million, or 28% more than last year's MLK long weekend. That's great news, as 2014 was below 2013's pace. In fact, after this weekend, 2014 has pulled ahead of 2013 by 8% at $671 million to $621 million.
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January 19th, 2014
SAG handed out their awards last night, and while there were not many surprises, there was one major upset, at least in my mind. Dallas Buyers Club led the way with two wins, making it the new Oscar favorite.
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January 19th, 2014
Producers Guild of America announce the winners tonight, but it seems I forgot to upload the story when they announced their nominations. In my defense, they announced them on January 2nd. You don't make an announcement on January 2nd, not unless you are trying to bury a story. As for the actual nominations, there are very few differences between this group and others, except when it comes to documentaries. Then again, that's been the norm this year. No one seems to agree on what the best documentaries were.
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January 17th, 2014
At the beginning of the month, I thought this weekend would be a close race between Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Ride Along. That might still be the case, but it is increasingly unlikely, as Jack Ryan's buzz hasn't kept pace with the buzz for Ride Along. Additionally, Jack Ryan has direct competition from Lone Survivor, which nearly set the January record last weekend and should remain potent this weekend. This weekend last year, Mama won the weekend with $28.40 million and I don't think Ride Along will top that. On the other hand, last year there were only three films that topped $10 million, while this year there could be as many as seven or eight. (All four wide releases have a shot at $10 million, but it is likely not all will get there. There are two holdovers that will earn more than $10 million. Finally, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street might get an Oscar bounce back to $10 million.) Even in the worst case scenario, four films will crack $10 million. 2014 should win for the first time in the week-over-week comparison.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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January 14th, 2014
As expected, Lone Survivor won the race to first place on the box office this past weekend. However, it crushed predictions to an astounding degree. It wasn't enough. The overall box office was down to $140 million. Granted, that was less than 1% lower than last weekend and just over 1% lower than the same weekend last year, but it is still frustrating. Besides the number one film, there's not a lot of positive news to report. Year-to-date, 2014 is a little behind 2013 at $413 million to $436 million. Granted, it is far too soon to talk about end of year results, but you obviously would want a fast start rather than a slow start.
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January 14th, 2014
The Directors Guild of America finished its theatrical nominations yesterday with the Documentary category. I'm of two minds with the list of nominees. On the one hand, I feel like I should be surprised, because a number of documentaries thought to be Oscar favorites were left off the list. On the other hand, they've been left off the list a number of times. I think it is time to rethink who is and is not an Oscar favorite.
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January 13th, 2014
Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was.
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January 12th, 2014
2014 has its first bona fide hit this weekend, with Lone Survivor posting an impressive $38.5 million, according to Universal's weekend estimate. That's the fifth-best January weekend in history, and the second-best by a film that wasn't already playing wide over the holidays (Avatar holds the top three spots in the chart and Cloverfield remains the record-holding new release). Unfortunately, the success of Lone Survivor was in part to blame for a weak debut by The Legend of Hercules, which will end in 4th or 5th place for the weekend.
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January 10th, 2014
There is only one truly new wide release this weekend: The Legend of Hercules. This film is earning zero positive reviews and most analysts think it will miss the top five. Fortunately, there are a couple of limited releases expanding wide this weekend that should help compensate. Lone Survivor is the most obviously mainstream hit and it has been doing surprisingly well in limited release. Meanwhile, Her is probably too out there to be a mainstream hit, but its reviews suggest it should at least do well with those looking for Oscar-quality films. This weekend last year was the weekend Zero Dark Thirty expanded wide. It pulled in $24.44 million over the weekend, which is a figure Lone Survivor might match. Unfortunately for 2014, 2013 had much better depth at the box office, so even if the Lone Survivor does get to $25 million or beyond, it still looks like the year will continue lower than last year.
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January 7th, 2014
The Directors Guild of America handed out their nominations for Feature Films today and will do the same for Documentaries next week. I have no idea why they do this, but it makes my job harder. Usually, I just wait till the Documentary nominations are announced, but this year I will do two stories. Next week will be mostly cut and paste job.
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January 7th, 2014
The box office wasn't as boisterous as anticipated and this is partially due to the seasonal storm that hit the east coast. This is also partially due to weaker than expected numbers for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which only managed second place in its debut. This allowed Frozen to return to top spot on the chart, even though it was a little weaker than expected. The overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $141 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 4%, which isn't a good result, but it is also not terrible. Had The Marked Ones merely matched expectations, it would have been a virtual tie.
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January 5th, 2014
WGAs announced their nominations this weekend and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. The top of that list is 12 Years a Slave, which was deemed ineligible because it wasn't written under WGA jurisdiction. This makes using the WGAs as an Oscar guide less reliable. On the other hand, several Oscar favorites showed up as well, including American Hustle, Nebraska, and others that have picked up major nominations this year.
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January 2nd, 2014
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is the only wide release opening on the first weekend of the year. The long running franchise will have to battle a weaker release date, franchise fatigue, and several holdovers that are still going strong. It still has a good shot at first place, as does Frozen. Frozen could win the weekend, with the help of families going out to the movies one last time before school starts again. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug probably won't extend its winning streak, but it should still be pull in quite a bit of money over the weekend. Last year the year started with Texas Chainsaw 3D earning more than $20 million. Django Unchained also topped $20 million over the weekend, albeit by the tiniest margin. We might have two $20 million films this weekend as well, with as many as five additional films earning more than $10 million. If 2014 doesn't win in the year-over-year comparison, it should at least be close.
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December 30th, 2013
Some studios are still closed and won't open till this time next week, so we won't have all of the final numbers for the past two weeks till then. We do have some final numbers, as well as some studio estimates that we can look at now. As for the upcoming week, it will look a lot like last week in terms of stories. We won't have a per theater chart, we might have an international top ten, while prediction, contest, and limited releases will be mostly normal. We might even have a review this weekend. (That's assuming some of the late screeners finally arrive, because at the moment I have nothing to review.)
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December 27th, 2013
It's the final weekend of the year and there are a lot of films fighting for spots in the top five, including five films that opened on Christmas Day. Unfortunately for those films, it looks like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will remain in first place for the third weekend in a row. The Wolf of Wall Street will likely be the biggest of the five new releases, but it is unlikely that it will have a shot at first place; it might only finish fifth. The other new releases are even weaker. Last year there were only three new releases for the final weekend of the year, but none of them bombed, so 2013 might end on a low note. 2013 should still win in the year-over-year comparison, but losing on the final weekend of the year is a bad sign for 2014's debut.
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December 19th, 2013
This week there are two wide releases, Anchorman: The Legend Continues and Walking with Dinosaurs, as well as two limited releases expanding wide, American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks. All four films will have to deal with last weekend's champion, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, as well as Frozen, which should do well thanks to the holidays. This weekend last year was pretty bad for a December weekend. Jack Reacher opened with $15.21 million, which put it a distant second place to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. The Desolation of Smaug won't make as much as An Unexpected Journey did last year, but Anchorman has a shot at first place and so the combined strength should help the box office grow in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 17th, 2013
American Hustle started its box office run in limited release with a stunning average of $123,409. This is the second best per theater average for the year, behind only Frozen. Saving Mr. Banks opened in 15 theaters earning an average of $27,558. It should do well in its upcoming expansion. Inside Llewyn Davis expanded, playing in 15 theaters over the weekend while its per theater average fell to $23,786. It will continue to expand. The overall box office leader, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, was the final film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $18,869.
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December 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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December 14th, 2013
SAG handed out nominations over the week, and like with the Independent Spirit Awards, 12 Years a Slave led the way and earned four nominations. It wasn't the only film that was singled out.
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December 13th, 2013
On the one hand, this is an amazing weekend for limited releases as there are not one, but two films opening that are very likely going to earn multiple Oscar nominations. On the other hand, most films opening this weekend are earning weak releases. The two main Oscar contenders are American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks, while The Crash Reel is up for Best Feature-Length Documentary.
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December 1st, 2013
We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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