Home Market Releases for December 18th, 2018

December 18th, 2018

It’s an odd week on the home market, as there are four major first run releases coming out this week, but almost nothing else. Fun fact, I got screeners for all four of these films, although one of them arrived too late to review. Of these four, A Simple Favor is clearly the best and the DVD / Blu-ray / 4K is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its only competition is the 4K release for 2001: A Space Odyssey. More...

Theater Averages: Mid90s Kickflips to the Top

October 25th, 2018

Mid90s had a much better than expected start earning an average of $64,539 in four theaters. This is the third highest theater average of 2018 behind just Free Solo ($73,572 in four theaters) and Eighth Grade ($65,949 also in four theaters). On the other hand, its reviews are good, but not great, so it could struggle to expand wide. That said, I would be absolutely shocked if the film didn’t earn some measure of mainstream success after this start. Can You Ever Forgive Me? opened in second place with an average of $32,302 in five theaters. Its reviews are award-worthy, so it should have very long legs and if it actually picks up some major award nominations, it could expand truly wide. Wildlife also rode amazing reviews to an average of $26,147 in four theaters. The overall box office leader, Halloween, was next with an average of $19,405. The Price of Everything opened with $16,817 in one theater, while the re-release of Wings of Desire managed $12,885, also in one theater. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wishing September Good Night

October 2nd, 2018

Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Clocking the Opposition

September 24th, 2018

As expected, The House with a Clock in its Walls topped the chart over the weekend. It was able to open faster than expected with $26.61 million. The other three films combined earned a fraction of that and A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the weekend. This caused the overall box office to fall 16% from last weekend to just $90 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a terrible margin. 2018 still has a massive 9.1% / $720 million lead over 2017 at $8.63 billion to $7.91 billion, so there’s no need to panic just yet. More...

Weekend Estimates: Clock Runs Fast, Other Openings Stumble

September 23rd, 2018

The House with a Clock in its Walls was the only new release to top expectations this weekend, and it is doing so with ease. The film will pull in a projected $26.85 million over the weekend, which is close to Goosebumps’s $28.87 million debut and is much better than predicted. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore suggest merely average legs, but this is still a great start for a film that cost $42 million to make. It is way too early to make a call on its international numbers, so I’m a little wary of calling this a financial hit just yet. It did open in first place in the Philippines with 602,000 in 195 theaters, but it only managed third place in Germany with $789,000 in 465. More...

Friday Estimates: Beating the Clock

September 22nd, 2018

The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only new release that opened well on Friday, with $7.82 million during its opening day. Its reviews are in the overall positive level and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. This is nearly identical to Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and weaker than Goosebumps’ result. If this film has the same legs as Miss Peregrine, then it will earn $25 million during its opening weekend. That would be an amazing start for a film that cost $42 million to make and significantly better than we predicted. More...

Thursday Night Previews: House Wins Previews with $840,000

September 21st, 2018

The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $840,000 in previews on Thursday, which sounds terrible for a wide release, but it is actually quite good, all things considered. It is a family film that had previews on a school night, so it is no surprise it couldn’t crack $1 million. By comparison, Goosebumps opened with $600,000, before earning $23.62 million during its opening weekend and if this film has similar legs, it will open with more than $30 million. On the other hand, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opened with $1.2 million before earning $28.87 million, which would give this film barely more than $20 million. House’s reviews are closer to Miss Peregrine’s reviews than Goosebumps’ reviews, so its legs will likely be similar. That said, I’m happy with our $20 million prediction for now, but I could have to adjust it tomorrow when Friday’s numbers show up. More...

Weekend Prediction: Countdown to the Weekend

September 20th, 2018

It’s a busier week than expected, as there are four films opening wide or semi-wide. The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only one with a shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only new release in the top five. Fahrenheit 11/9 could earn as much as $10 million, but it could also fail to reach the top five with $5 million. Life Itself is aiming even lower, but there’s an outside chance all things line up correctly and it earns a spot in the top five. On the other hand, Assassination Nation is opening semi-wide and it could miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened with nearly $40 million and two other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, there might not be a single film with $20 million at the box office. More...