2016 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 22nd, 2016

It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year... More...

Home Market Releases for November 1st, 2016

November 2nd, 2016

The Home Market Release Report is a day late this week for a trio of reasons. Firstly, the November Preview was also due the same day. Secondly, it was a very busy week. And finally, I’m suffering from a medical condition a lot of Canadians suffer from this time of year... acute Coffee Crisp poisoning. I’m not saying I ate four dozen fun-sized Coffee Crisps in the past three days... I’m not saying that, because it was actually an even 50. Don’t judge me. ... Okay, judge me. Clearly mistakes were made. It is a busy week, but not very deep week. Star Trek Beyond is by far the biggest and best release of the week and the various home market releases are the pick of the week. There wasn’t a lot of competition for that title, but Bad Moms is also worth picking up. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Bad Moms

November 1st, 2016

STX Entertainment has been around for only about a year and during that time they haven’t had lot of box office success. Bad Moms changed that becoming the first film of theirs to reach the century mark. Did it deserve this success? Was it one of the funniest films of the summer? More...

Home Market Releases for October 18th, 2016

October 18th, 2016

It’s a bad week for the home market. There are only two first-run releases and neither of them are worth picking up. There’s not a lot of limited releases, TV on DVD releases, etc. to make up the gap. However, there is one truly great release, Trilogía de Guillermo del Toro from The Criterion Collection. The Blu-ray costs a lot, but it is a must have for fans of Guillermo Del Toro, especially his earlier Spanish-language work: Cronos, The Devil’s Backbone, and Pan’s Labyrinth. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Blair Witch Spooks the Box Office with $765,000

September 16th, 2016

Blair Witch led the way during Thursday’s previews with $765,000. This is well short of the horror films we had during the summer, including The Shallows at $1.33 million and Lights Out at $1.8 million. Then again, it isn’t really fair to compare previews during summer when a lot of the target audience doesn’t have to go to school the next day. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of horror films that come out in September and previews like this have only been ubiquitous for the past few years. I think it is a good sign, but I’m not sure. Maybe if moviegoers like it more than critics do, the film will be a hit. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Breathe Blows Away the New Releases

September 7th, 2016

The Labor Day long weekend wasn’t even close with Don’t Breathe earning more over three days than any other film earned over four. There were a couple of other major stories as Suicide Squad hit $300 million on Monday and Bad Moms hit $100 million on Saturday. Given the production budgets of those two films, the latter has a lot more reasons to celebrate. As for the new releases, the studios will just be hoping no one remembers them in a few weeks. The Light Between Oceans missed the top five, while Morgan missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 16% to $99 million over the three-day weekend and $127 million including Monday. This is 8.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew to $500 million at $7.98 billion to $7.48 billion. That’s a lead of 6.7%. It would take a real collapse for 2016 to lose at this rate. More...

Weekend Estimates: Newcomers Can’t Dislodge Suicide Squad

August 21st, 2016

Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Suicide Slumps to $43.54 million, Sausage Soars with $34.26 million

August 16th, 2016

The overall box office was a little weaker than expected with Suicide Squad falling nearly as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did. On the other hand, Sausage Party opened better than expected earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $172 million over the weekend, which is 25% smaller than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 16% higher and that’s the most important number. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $7.43 billion, putting it 5.3% ahead of last year’s pace. The box office just needs to maintain its $380 million lead throughout the rest of the summer to be considered a success. More...

Weekend Estimates: Pete’s Dragon and Suicide Squad Soft, Sausage Party Firm

August 14th, 2016

A precipitous drop from last weekend won’t be enough to knock Suicide Squad off its perch at the top of the box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Friday. But a 67% fall is steep, even by modern standards. On the bright side, it is less than Batman v Superman’s 69% decline in its second weekend earlier this year, at least according to the estimates. A weak Sunday would put the two films basically neck-and-neck on that front, and it looks increasingly likely that Suicide Squad will end with less than $300 million domestically. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Sausages get the Drop on the Dragon

August 12th, 2016

Sausage Party got off to a fast start with $3.25 million in previews. By comparison, Bad Moms earned $2 million during its previews two weeks ago, on its way to a $23.82 million opening weekend. If the two films had the same legs for their opening weekends, then we would be looking at a $38 million debut. Sausage Party does have better reviews that Bad Moms earned, but Bad Moms is aimed at a female demographic and generally speaking, women are less likely to rush out to see a movie during previews. So I think it is wise to be a little more cautious, but an opening weekend of over $30 million is still reason to celebrate. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Suicide Starts Strong with $133.68 Million, but Signs of Long-Term Weakness

August 9th, 2016

Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: Suicide Sets August Daily Record with $65.13 million

August 6th, 2016

As expected, Suicide Squad broke the record for the biggest day in August with $65.13 million on Friday. Its opening day to preview multiplier was 3.17, which is not that much worse than the 3.28 earned by Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. This is surprising, as Suicide Squad’s reviews have fallen to just 26% positive, while Guardians of the Galaxy earned 91% positive reviews. You would think word-of-mouth would tank Suicide Squad. Granted, it is just one day and perhaps it will fall as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did throughout the rest of the weekend. Or perhaps moviegoers liked the movie significantly more than critics did. Its CinemaScore was a B+, which is not good, but not terrible. Or perhaps the lack of A-list comic book characters means it wasn’t able to get the average moviegoer as excited as they were for BvS, so it won’t be as front-loaded despite the worse reviews. Given this opening day, the film is on pace for $137 million, according to our model, which is on the very high end of expectations. That said, things might change tomorrow when we get the weekend estimates: the model’s range of uncertainty goes from $119 million at the low end to $154 million at the high end. More...

Weekend Predictions: Suicide Hopes to Have Long Life at the Box Office

August 4th, 2016

Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jason Bourne Treks to the top of the Chart with $59.22 million

August 2nd, 2016

There was no surprise at the top of the weekend box office chart, as Jason Bourne easily won with $59.22 million. This was on the high end of expectations, but not quite as strong as Star Trek Beyond’s opening last weekend. Both of the other two new releases, Bad Moms and Nerve, also did well. In fact, none of the films we talked about before the weekend missed expectations. The overall box office was down a little compared to last weekend, but a 3.1% decline is hardly noteworthy. More importantly, the box office was 30% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 nearly double to $260 million or 4.0%. Being ahead $6.84 billion to $6.58 billion at this point of the year is a good position to be in, but it wouldn’t take a major collapse for 2016 to fall behind 2015 by year’s end. More...

Weekend Estimates: Matt Damon Shows Star Power Can Matter

July 31st, 2016

When it comes to “star power” in Hollywood, I’ve been a skeptic ever since we launched our Bankability Index, and started looking at the real influence a single actor has on the performance of a film. With some notable exceptions (Tom Cruise and Sandra Bullock chief among them these days), actors generally don’t move the box office dial much when they appear in a generic film. But this weekend’s opening of Jason Bourne shows what the combination of the right actor in the right role can do. In spite of virtually identical reviews to 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, the new film, a franchise un-re-boot if you will, starring Matt Damon in the role he made iconic, will post a very solid $60 million this weekend. To be fair, that’s a bit behind the inflation-adjusted openings of The Bourne Ultimatum and The Bourne Supremacy, but it’s far better than the $38 million earned by Legacy when it debuted. More...

Friday Estimates: Bourne doesn’t have the Ultimate Opening Friday, but still on Pace for $60 million Weekend

July 30th, 2016

Jason Bourne dominated the Friday box office chart, earning $22.71 million. I’ve seen reports that this is the biggest opening day for a Matt Damon movie, but The Bourne Ultimatum did better with $24.67 million. That film also earned much better reviews than this film did, so it likely won’t have the same legs. It did earn an A- with CinemaScore, so that will help a little. It will likely have similar legs to Star Trek Beyond. Beyond did earn better reviews, but Star Trek has a bigger fanboy factor, which hurt its legs. That will give the film $60 million over the weekend, more or less. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Bourne has Impossible-like Previews

July 29th, 2016

Jason Bourne pulled in $4.3 million in previews last night, which is a little better than the $4 million Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation earned during its previews this time last year. Rogue Nation opened with $55.52 million and if Jason Bourne can have a similar multiplier, then it will open with $60 million at the box office. That’s probably a little too optimistic, but it does look like it will beat our prediction by a few million. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Jason be a Bourne Again Box Office Hit?

July 28th, 2016

The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth. More...

2016 Preview: July

July 1st, 2016

It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation. More...