Home Market Releases for July 26th, 2016

July 27th, 2016

It’s a rather shallow week on the home market with the biggest release being Batman: The Killing Joke, which is a hot mess. More on that below. As for the best new release of the week, there are a handful of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, including Barbershop: The Next Cut, Deadline U.S.A., and Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXVI. In the end, I picked Sing Street on Blu-ray for that title. More...

Home Market Releases for July 5th, 2016

July 4th, 2016

It's a strange week on the home market, as there are no first-run releases and very few other releases to make up the difference. There are some contenders for Pick of the Week, but all of them are foreign-language films, which is again odd. In fact, two of them, Only Yesterday and The Boy and the World, are animated. However, in the end, I went with The Mermaid, which deserves to be seen by more and Blu-ray is a great way to see it. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Jungle Book wins Three-peat with $43.71 million

May 3rd, 2016

This past weekend was the weekend before the start of summer, so you knew the wide releases weren't going to be massive hits. However, I was still hoping for more than what we got. Fortunately, The Jungle Book did beat expectations earning first place with $43.71 million. The best of the new releases was Keanu, which only managed third place with $9.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 16% from last weekend to $108 million. The year-over-year comparison is devastating; however, that's because the same weekend last year was the first weekend of May when The Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted. Compared to last year, this weekend's box office was 54% lower. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has shrunk to 5.7% at $3.51 billion to $3.32 billion. Next weekend, 2016 should bounce back when Captain America: Civil War opens. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Keanu Mews - Update

April 29th, 2016

Keanu earned $560,000 during its previews last night. This is hardly a roar, but it isn't bad either. Barbershop: The Next Cut earned $735,000 two weeks ago and if the two films have similar day-to-day growth, then Keanu will open with $15 million during the weekend. This is exactly in line with predictions and should be enough to make the studio happy. More...

Weekend Predictions: Kitten vs. Jungle Cat

April 28th, 2016

There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them look like they will challenge The Jungle Book for top spot. In fact, it looks like all three combined won't come close to The Jungle Book weekend haul. Keanu is the best of the new releases and it has a shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Mother's Day could have been a midlevel hit as counter-programming, especially with Mother's Day just over a week away. However, early reviews are hurting its chances with moviegoers. Finally there's Ratchet and Clank, which is one of those animated movies that feels like it should have gone Direct-to-Video. As for this weekend last year... this weekend last year was the first weekend of May, so year-over-year comparison has to deal with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Obviously 2016 is going to get crushed this weekend. It should bounce back next weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jungle Sets 2016 Sophomore Record with $61.54 Million

April 26th, 2016

Both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War were a little weaker than predicted over the weekend. The Jungle Book was still able to earn the biggest sophomore weekend of 2016 at $61.54 million. For The Huntsman: Winter's War, it was a disappointing $19.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 28% to $128 million. However, this was still 32% more than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, next weekend is going to be damn awful in the year-over-year comparison, because of a misalignment in the weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.37 million, putting it ahead of last year's pace by 8.5% or $260 million. More...

Friday Estimates: Jungle Preys on the Huntsman with a $16.38 Million Friday

April 23rd, 2016

The Jungle Book remained the top draw on Friday with $16.38 million, which was more than twice as much as The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with. With its reviews and family-friendly nature, Saturday will be even better for Jungle Book, and it should top $60 million over the weekend. That’s a great sophomore weekend, even if it is below our prediction of $65 million. It also won’t quite take the film past $200 million by the end of the weekend, but it will be close enough that Disney will be able to celebrate that milestone shortly. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Jungle Leave Huntsman Out in the Cold?

April 21st, 2016

It's a bad week for new releases, as The Jungle Book is widely expected to dominate the box office. The only truly wide release is The Huntsman: Winter's War, but its reviews are simply terrible. There are also three films opening in select theaters and one of them should earn a spot in the top ten. They only need a little more than $1 million to do so. This weekend last year, the only true wide release was The Age of Adaline, which opened with $13 million on its way to becoming a midlevel hit. The Huntsman could double that opening, but it won't have the same legs. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jungle is King of the Box Office pulling in $103.26 million

April 18th, 2016

Wow. As expected, The Jungle Book easily won first place on the box office chart, but did so with a much, much better than anticipated result of $103.26 million during its opening weekend. This is more than the rest of the box office earned. Barbershop: The Next Cut did well as counter-programming earning $20.24 million. On the other hand, Criminal missed the top five and barely managed to avoid the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $176 million, which was 68% more than last weekend and 47% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.19 billion at the box office, which is 9.2% / $270 million more than last year's pace. I didn't think 2016 had a chance to top 2015, but I'm really getting optimistic now. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jungle Book projected to top $100 million

April 17th, 2016

2016 is shaping up to be just about the perfect year on all fronts for Disney. They started the year with Star Wars at the top of the box office; Zootopia far out-performed expectations; Captain America: Civil War, Alice Through the Looking Glass and Finding Dory position them perfectly for the Summer; and Doctor Strange and Star Wars: Rogue One are two of the most talked about movies coming at the end of the year. (Oh, and they’re slipping a long-awaited Steven Spielberg family-friendly film in the middle of all that.)

All-in-all, this could be a year of studio dominance the likes of which we haven’t seen since, well, last year, when Universal could do no wrong. Their incredible year really took flight at the beginning of April, when Furious 7 posted a monthly record $147 million opening weekend. The Jungle Book won’t hit those heights, but it will most likely be the second film to top $100 million in April, with Disney projecting a weekend of $103.57 million as of Sunday morning. More...

Friday Estimates: Jungle Roars to the Top

April 16th, 2016

Friday's box office had some good news, some bad news, and some ugly news. The Jungle Book opened with an amazing $32.41 million on Friday. Given its family-friendly target demographic and its 95% positive reviews, it should have a great internal multiplier. For example, Cinderella opened with $23.00 million during its opening day on the way to an opening weekend of $67.88 million. If The Jungle Book has the same internal multiplier, it will earn $96 million over the weekend. However, films that open bigger have a harder time maintaining those numbers. An opening weekend of $90 million is possible, but I think it will fall just short of that mark. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jungle Made a Lot of Noise Last Night

April 15th, 2016

The Jungle Book has stellar previews pulling in $4.2 million in Thursday. That's not as big as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice or Deadpool made earlier this year. However, it is more than the $2.3 million Cinderella earned last year. This bodes well for its weekend run. More...

Weekend Predictions: Welcome to the Jungle

April 15th, 2016

Hollywood's attempt to redefine the start of summer as "some time in April" continue this week with the release of The Jungle Book. This film is expected to dominate the box office this weekend and possibly next weekend as well. Barbershop: The Next Cut is also expected to do well, perhaps earning the biggest opening in the franchise, not taking into account inflation. Finally there's Criminal, which should just be happy with a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way, but Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 and Unfriended were close behind. Fortunately, it looks like The Jungle Book will earn more than those three made combined. 2016 should have a good week on the year-over-year comparison. More...

2016 Preview: April

April 1st, 2016

March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad. More...