February 27th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there were nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen.
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February 25th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, ending with Best Adapted Screenplay. This race is about as uncompetitive as it can be with nearly all analysts agreeing on the likely winner.
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February 18th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. This is one of the least competitive races this year. One actor has consistently pulled in win after win and I would be shocked if Oscar night wasn't the same.
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February 3rd, 2014
Dallas Buyers Club is widely considered a favorite to win at least one Oscar and it has a shot at becoming the big winner come Oscar night. Needless to say, my expectations for the film are really high. I'm hoping they are not unrealistically high. Is this the case? Or is the movie as good as its critically acclaim?
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February 1st, 2014
WGAs handed out their awards on Saturday and depending on who you talk to, there were a couple of major upsets. There was certainly at least one upset, but the other awards are less surprising.
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January 20th, 2014
The home market picks up steam this week, sort of. We are starting to get some of the Awards Season hopefuls coming out, which is great news for fans of great movies. However, there's not a lot of depth to go with the award-worthy movies. The two films that were the main contenders for Pick of the Week were Captain Phillips on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and In a World... on DVD or Blu-ray. It was a close decision, but in the end, I went with In a World...
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January 19th, 2014
Producers Guild of America announce the winners tonight, but it seems I forgot to upload the story when they announced their nominations. In my defense, they announced them on January 2nd. You don't make an announcement on January 2nd, not unless you are trying to bury a story. As for the actual nominations, there are very few differences between this group and others, except when it comes to documentaries. Then again, that's been the norm this year. No one seems to agree on what the best documentaries were.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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January 14th, 2014
The Directors Guild of America finished its theatrical nominations yesterday with the Documentary category. I'm of two minds with the list of nominees. On the one hand, I feel like I should be surprised, because a number of documentaries thought to be Oscar favorites were left off the list. On the other hand, they've been left off the list a number of times. I think it is time to rethink who is and is not an Oscar favorite.
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January 7th, 2014
The Directors Guild of America handed out their nominations for Feature Films today and will do the same for Documentaries next week. I have no idea why they do this, but it makes my job harder. Usually, I just wait till the Documentary nominations are announced, but this year I will do two stories. Next week will be mostly cut and paste job.
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January 5th, 2014
WGAs announced their nominations this weekend and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. The top of that list is 12 Years a Slave, which was deemed ineligible because it wasn't written under WGA jurisdiction. This makes using the WGAs as an Oscar guide less reliable. On the other hand, several Oscar favorites showed up as well, including American Hustle, Nebraska, and others that have picked up major nominations this year.
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December 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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December 14th, 2013
SAG handed out nominations over the week, and like with the Independent Spirit Awards, 12 Years a Slave led the way and earned four nominations. It wasn't the only film that was singled out.
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December 12th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire again earned first place on the international chart, this week pulling in $42.9 million in 83 markets for a total of $340.6 million internationally and $676.5 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, not unless you count India, where the film made $703,000 on 613 screens. The film has already surpassed its predecessor and it has yet to open in Japan. $800 million worldwide is the current target, which is more than enough to cover this film's combined production and P&A budgets, and possibly the combined budgets for the next next two movies as well.
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December 5th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire remained in first place on the international chart with $90.0 million in 79 markets for a total of $272.1 million. To put this into perspective, The Hunger Games finished with $276.5 million, so it is likely the sequel has already topped its predecessor internationally. The film opened in first place in France with $12.11 million on 755 screens. In comparison, The Hunger Games made $14.51 million in total in France, including $3.80 million during its opening weekend. The film also earned top spot in Italy with $5.05 million on 651 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.93 million. The original did poorly in that market with $1.29 million during its opening weekend and $3.83 million in total. Holdovers were led by the U.K., where it added $9.04 million on 557 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.36 million, or less than $2 million from its predecessor's total in that market. In Germany, the film pulled in $7.57 million on 670 screens over the weekend for a total of $24.63 million after two. The film film finished with $20.30 million in that market.
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November 27th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire had its first wide weekend on the international chart after debuting in Brazil last weekend. It shot up to first place with $146.1 million in 65 markets, including two weeks in Brazil. The film was very strong compared to The Hunger Games in most markets, this was noticeable in the U.K., where it earned $19.8 million compared to $7.78 million for the first film. Germany's haul was $14 million, more than three times the $4.26 million for the original. It grew in Australia as well, but by a more subdued margin of $11.4 million to $9.48 million.
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November 25th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire easily won first place at the box office this past weekend and it even broke the record for biggest opening weekend in November. Even so, its opening seems a little disappointing, because some analysts were predicting an opening of more than $180 million. The overall box office was still huge at $226 million. This was nearly $100 million or 80% more than last weekend. This was also higher than the same weekend last year by 9%. Unfortunately, 2013 is still behind 2012 by 1.4% at $9.28 billion to $9.41 billion.
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November 20th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World completed the hat trick earning first place for the third weekend in a row. It pulled in $52.5 million on 3,841 screens in 69 markets for totals of $332.8 million internationally and $477.9 million worldwide. This is already more than the original Thor finished with and possibly already enough to break even. (It depends on its global P&A budget.) The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it did debut in first place in Argentina with $1.73 million on 256 screens. Its biggest market so far is China at $41.8 million, while Russia is second with $32.07 million. The film has yet to open in Italy and Japan, so it might hit a few more milestones. On the other hand, it will surrender top spot this weekend to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
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November 14th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World debuted last weekend, but thanks to a number of new markets this weekend, it was even more dominant on the international chart. It pulled in $94 million in 66 markets, which lifts its running tally to $240.9 million internationally and $326.6 million worldwide. Its biggest market was China where it made $20.98 million. In comparison, Thor made about $15 million there, in total. This is incredible growth. It grew in Russia rising to $11.44 million on 1,500 screens for a total of $24.04 million after two weeks of release. The original Thor finished with $268.30 million internationally, which is a figure Thor 2 will smash through by the weekend. It might make more internationally than the first film made worldwide and it could help Disney break the all-time single year global box office record, currently at $3.791 billion, which it earned in 2010.
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November 7th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World made its international debut a week ahead of its domestic debut and it crushed the competition with $109.4 million in 36 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned first place with $13.80 million on 522 screens. By comparison, the first Thor film managed $9.11 million on 500. If the film has a similar increase in its opening weekend here, it could open with $100 million. That's probably too optimistic; it did show growth in most major markets, just not as much as it did in the U.K. France was the second best new market with an opening of $9.94 million on 609 screens, compared to $8.69 million for its predecessor. Germany and Mexico were neck-and-neck with $8.31 million on 620 screens and $8.26 million on 2,482 respectively. Russia was strong with $7.59 million on 769 screens. Australia made $6.80 million on 609 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.98 million. Brazil was close behind with $6.69 million on 1,090 screens. In South Korea it made $6.11 million on 843 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.63 million. The only major market to see a decrease was Spain, where the film made $3.34 million on 717 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.82 million. By comparison, Thor made $5.58 million on 562 screens.
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October 30th, 2013
Gravity earned first place for the fourth week with $37.7 million on 7,340 screens in 53 markets for a total of $164.4 million internationally and $364.0 million worldwide. This weekend it debuted in first place in France with a very impressive $10.76 million on 398 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $5.29 million on 531 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $15.55 million. It also repeated in top spot in Mexico with $3.79 million on 1,563 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.04 million after two. The film will likely pull in close to $100 million in just these holdovers, plus it has yet to open in the U.K., Japan and China, so it could make another $100 million in those three markets as well.
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October 29th, 2013
The month long slump 2013 has been on is finally over, thanks in part to Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa. However, the overall box office still wasn't that good, as it was down slightly from last weekend to $102 million. Granted, "slightly" in this case means a fraction of 1%, so it isn't troubling. On the other hand, it was 10% higher than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, year-to-date, 2013's lead over 2012 has shrunk to just $50 million or 0.6% at $8.49 billion to $8.44 billion. In fact, 2013 has not sold less tickets than 2012 had at this point in its run. That's not good and it is unlikely things will turn around in the coming few weeks.
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October 25th, 2013
So far October has been a bad month at the box office. Granted, Gravity should crack $200 million over the weekend; however, week after week after week we've seen declines in the year-over-year comparison. Will that losing streak finally end this weekend? We do have some good news. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa should earn $30 million, more or less, easily topping the chart this weekend and earning much more than last year's number one film Argo. In fact, it might earn more than all four new releases from last year. Additionally, The Counselor isn't expected to be the biggest hit, but it still could earn more than Argo did this time last year and should earn more than the best new releases, Cloud Atlas, did. Are we finally going to see 2013's slump end? I really hope so, because 2013 is not that far ahead of 2012's pace and if the slump doesn't end soon, it could find itself slipping behind last year's pace.
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October 24th, 2013
For the third weekend in a row, Gravity led the way on the international chart and reached a major milestone in the process. This past weekend, it pulled in $33.5 million on 7,900 screens in 51 markets for an international total of $114.2 million and a worldwide total $283.8 million. It opened in first place in two major markets led by South Korea where it earned $6.30 million on 636 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.29 million. Meanwhile in Mexico, it made $5.75 million on 1,783 screens. Its biggest market overall is Russia where it has earned $17.60 million in total, including $2.19 million on 700 screens this past weekend.
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October 22nd, 2013
As expected, Gravity remained on top of the weekend box office chart for the third weekend it a row. It became the first film released in 2013 to earn the hat trick, and very likely the last. Unfortunately, two of the three wide releases missed expectations, which hurt the overall box office numbers. Compared to last week, the overall box office was down by 11% to $103 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 35%. Ouch. 2013 is still ahead of 2012's pace, but by less than 1% at $8.36 billion to $8.29 billion.
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October 20th, 2013
Gravity will become the first film in 2013 to win three straight three-day weekends, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. With $31 million expected, the film is down just 28% from last weekend and has reached a formidable $170.5 million. That puts in in the top 10 for the year, with plenty more to come. Fellow Oscar-hopefuls 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost and Kill Your Darlins are the other films making waves this weekend (literally in one case).
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October 18th, 2013
There are two wide releases this week, Carrie and Escape Plan. However, neither film is earning critical praise and neither film is expected to be a breakout hit. There is a third film opening semi-wide, The Fifth Estate, but despite being clearly made for Oscars, its reviews are worse than the two more mainstream releases. It looks like Gravity will have no trouble earning the hat trick at the box office. It should also earn more than last year's winner, Paranormal Activity 4. Unfortunately, last year had much better depth than this year will have, so 2013 will likely lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 15th, 2013
The winner of our Over and Under the Sea contest was determined and it is...
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October 15th, 2013
Both Gravity and Captain Phillips topped expectations, which is a reason to celebrate. However, it's practically the only reason to celebrate. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 did well, but from that point on, the box office was a disaster. Overall, the total box office was $116 million, which was down 8% from last week. Compared to last year, the box office was down by 10%. How can this year's top film earn more than twice as much as last year's number one film, but still lose out overall? Last year, the fourth place film was Hotel Transylvania, which earned $17.24 million. This year the fourth place film was Machete Kills, which earned just $3.84 million. The depth this year is simply terrible. Year-to-date, 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by less than 1% at $8.21 billion to $8.15 billion.
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October 13th, 2013
What could have been a close-run race at the box office this weekend turned into a comfortable win for Gravity, but for all the right reasons. Captain Phillips opened with a sturdy $26 million, on the back of some excellent reviews. But that isn't close to enough to unseat Gravity, which will post one of the best second weekends for a wide release in a long time. Comparisons with Argo are inevitable -- the Oscar-winner fell just 15% in its second weekend, while Gravity will be off 21%, but Gravity opened with over $50 million, compared to Argo's $20 million or so, which makes the performance all the more impressive.
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October 11th, 2013
There are two wide releases this week: Captain Phillips and Machete Kills. The former is a potential Awards Season player, while the latter is definitely not. Unfortunately, neither seems likely to challenge Gravity for top spot at the box office this weekend. Captain Phillips should come in a solid second place, while Machete Kills will try not to under-perform when compared to Runner Runner's opening from last weekend. Gravity could help 2013 top last year's box office, which was led by Taken 2 in its second weekend of release. The best new release was Argo, but it opened with less than $20 million and Captain Phillips should top that. However, last year had much better depth and might prove to be too much for 2013 to overcome.
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October 6th, 2013
Success at the box office is no guarantee of awards, but it certainly doesn't do any harm. And by that metric, Gravity's chances of picking up an Oscar or three is taking a considerable turn for the better this weekend as the sci-fi thriller heads towards a celestial $55.6 million debut, according to Warner Bros.'s Sunday projection. That will comfortably set a record for the biggest weekend in October, overtaking Paranormal Activity 3's $52.6 million back in 2011. With Captain Phillips and 12 Years a Slave opening in the next two weeks, awards season is getting interesting.
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October 3rd, 2013
Captain Phillips isn't the only film opening wide next week, but it might as well be. It could open with more than Machete Kills earns in total. Because of this, it is the easy choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Captain Phillips.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of The Little Mermaid on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 3rd, 2013
There are two films opening wide this week: Gravity and Runner Runner. However, while the two films share a release date, they are at the opposite ends when it comes to box office potential and critical acclaim. Gravity should have an easy time winning the race for the top of the box office chart, and if its reviews can translate into Awards Season buzz, then it should have very strong legs. On the other hand, many analysts expect Runner Runner to stumble out of the gate and disappear before the end of the month. This weekend last year, Taken 2 opened with just under $50 million, which is too much for Gravity to match. Frankenweenie earned $11 million during its opening weekend, which is a figure Runner Runner should match, but might not. Overall, 2013 looks a lot weaker than 2012 was.
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October 1st, 2013
October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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