February 15th, 2018
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. A lot of people call this Oscar the Pixar Award, and look at that, there’s a Pixar film on this list. Is Coco the overwhelming favorite? Or does another film have what it takes?
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November 8th, 2017
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It is not a particularly strong week on the home market. Cars 3 is the biggest new release, but it is far from the best. There were not a lot of contenders for Pick of the Week. The Philadelphia Story and Your Name were the two best with the latter coming out on top and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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November 5th, 2017
Cars is inarguably the weak link in the Pixar canon. Cars was the first Pixar film that I didn’t think was an instant classic, while Cars 2 is still the only Pixar movie that earned bad reviews. Can Cars 3 break this streak? Or is it still the weak link?
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October 25th, 2017
There are not many films on this week’s list of home market releases, but there are several bigger titles making their home market debut. Some, like Cars 3, are only coming out on Video on Demand, but there are also some serious Pick of the Week contenders hitting DVD / Blu-ray as well. Of these contenders, War for the Planet of the Apes has the best combination of reviews and extras on the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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September 3rd, 2017
This weekend is somewhat uncharted territory for the movie industry, with no new releases rolling out in over 1,000 theaters and no dominant film already playing. Fortunately, the result is looking like a glass that is at least half full. Thanks in part to the holiday weekend, and the start of recovery from Hurricane Harvey, several returning films improved their box office from last weekend, and the number one film, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, will remain flat from its last outing, with $10.25 million expected by Lionsgate, and a total around $55 million by the end of the day on Sunday.
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August 31st, 2017
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Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets earned first place on the international chart with $32.78 million in 32 countries for totals of $124.12 million internationally and $163.81 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $28.88 million over the weekend for a total of $29.24 million. The film has yet to open in South Korea and Italy so it will likely top its production budget worldwide; that’s nowhere near enough to break even, but if it can get to $200 million worldwide, then it can at least safe face.
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August 5th, 2017
On the positive side, The Dark Tower topped the chart on Friday. On the negative side, it missed both our original prediction, as well as our lowered expectations with just $7.725 million. The film’s reviews are terrible at 19% positive, while its CinemaScore is a mere B, so that’s bad news for the film’s legs, putting it on pace for between $18 million and $19 million. It’s good news for Dunkirk, which has a real shot at first place on the weekend chart for the third weekend in a row.
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August 3rd, 2017
August has begun, but I’m starting to think Summer has already ended. The Dark Tower was expected to be the big hit of the weekend, but its reviews are a lot weaker than anticipated. Kidnap is also opening wide and its early reviews were good, but that has changed as the day has gone on. Furthermore, it’s buzz is really quiet, so its box office chances are not good. Finally Detroit is expanding wide this weekend. Its reviews are among the best we’ve seen all summer, but it is tough to go from a limited release to a wide release, so I’m not overly optimistic. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad opened with $133.68 million. It is very likely the entire box office will be less than $133.68 million this weekend. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 28th, 2017
Atomic Blonde easily topped The Emoji Movie during previews, earning $1.52 million. However, had the action flick not topped the family film, it would have been a disaster. Compared to other recent action films, Atomic Blonde underperformed Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($1.7 million) and Baby Driver ($2.1 million), but at least it topped King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($1.15 million). This summer, the average action film has opened with just over 10 times what it made during its previews, which is bad news for Atomic Blonde, as it puts the film’s opening weekend at $15 million to $16 million. Its reviews are good, but not great enough to really change this trend. Even $20 million would be a boon after this start.
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July 19th, 2017
I thought last week was close, but this week was even closer. In fact, according to Sunday’s estimates, Spider-Man: Homecoming was the top film on the international chart, but Monday’s final numbers had Despicable Me 3 in first place. That film earned $72.7 million in 61 markets for totals of $434.00 million internationally and $622.39 million worldwide. Its biggest opening came in Indonesia, where it earned $3.5 million on 230 screens. Meanwhile, the film is now the second biggest animated film at the Chinese box office. This past weekend, Despicable Me 3 earned $22.09 million on 8,057 screens for a two-week total of $115.16 million. The film opens in Japan and South Korea before the end of the month, as well as Italy and a few other smaller markets by the end of August.
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July 6th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.
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July 5th, 2017
The weekend box office chart was as predicted, at least in terms of the order. Most of the new releases / top five had weaker openings / sharper declines. Despicable Me 3 still led the way, but with a more subdued $72.43 million. Baby Driver is hoping to earn that much in total after a $20.55 million / $29.58 million opening. This is almost as much as it cost to make. The House, on the other hand, was DOA with just $8.72 million. On the positive side, Monday and Tuesday were much stronger than usual, so rather than looking at the weekend box office and saying it is weaker than anticipated, we could instead say the weekend box office was stretched out over five days. Overall, the box office grew 20% from last week to $169 million. This is down 11% from the same weekend last year, but again, one could argue this is due to a misalignment in the Independence Day holiday. Year-to-date, 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the lead shrank to under $30 million at $5.64 billion to $5.61 billion.
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July 3rd, 2017
The combination of Canada Day and Independence Day has resulted in some studios not releasing the weekend final numbers today. Some are releasing final numbers, some have updated Sunday’s estimates, while others are just waiting until Wednesday for final results. Despicable Me 3 is in the middle category, as Universal revised its estimate downwards to $72.41 million. This is still a great opening, but it is also a troubling trajectory, as it has fallen a lot from Friday’s Estimates, when it looked like it was going to hit $83 million. Granted, this is still the sixth-biggest opening of the year, so Universal has reason to celebrate, but its internal multiplier suggests short legs for a family film. I think this is a case of franchise fatigue, as its reviews were good, even if they were not as good as the previous Despicable Me films.
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July 1st, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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June 30th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 earned $4.1 million during previews last night, which is both good and bad. It is the best previews for an animated film this year, topping the $2.8 million Cars 3 earned earlier this month. However, it is weaker than the $4.7 million Despicable Me 2 earned and that film was a Wednesday release, so that would have depressed its previews even more, which makes this comparison even worse for Despicable Me 3. The Secret Life of Pets opened on a Friday and earned $5.3 million during its previews. If we use that film as a gauge, then Despicable Me 3 will earn $81 million over the weekend. Despicable Me 3 has earned weaker reviews than those The Secret Life of Pets earned, while it is also a sequel, which tends to hurt legs. We predicted $82 million, but that might be a little optimistic now. It should come close, on the other hand.
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June 29th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 should dominate the box office this weekend, which is good news, because the last few weeks have been underwhelming. In fact, we haven’t had a monster hit since Wonder Woman started the month off with a bang. The House is an R-rated comedy, but since the last such film to come out bombed, I’m a little worried about its chances. Baby Driver opened on Wednesday and its early numbers are promising. It won’t be a $100 million hit, but it should earn a solid profit for Sony. This weekend last year, there were no monster hits at the box office, but there was solid depth. This weekend, we should be much stronger on top, while the depth won’t be that much weaker, leading to 2017 ending its mini-losing streak.
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June 29th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight dominated the international box office chart earning $196.2 million in 40 markets, picking up first place in each of those markets. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, this is slightly ahead of Age of Extinction’s combined opening in these markets. Bad news, most of it came from China, where studios only get 25% of the box office, instead of an average 40% in other international markets. The Chinese debut was impressive, $127.24 million on 7,800 screens, including previews. It also did well in South Korea with $9.53 million on 1,727 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.87 million. It was nearly as potent in Russia with $8.45 million on 1,456 screens. On the other hand, its openings in the U.K. ($5.90 million in 577 theaters) and in Australia ($3.39 million on 539 screens) were actually worse than its opening here, given the relative size of the markets involved. The film has yet to open in several major markets, including France, where it opens this weekend, so it should remain active on the international chart for a while.
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June 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight had the weekend to itself, but it couldn’t take advantage earning $44.68 million / $68.48 million over the full five days. It earned less over five days than last year’s winner, Finding Dory, earned over three days. Wonder Woman remained in second place becoming just the third film released in 2017 to hit $300 million, but there was not much else to celebrate at the box office. This explains why the overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $139 million. More importantly, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but its lead was cut in half to just 1.3% or $70 million. This is a little distressing.
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June 24th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels.
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June 22nd, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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June 22nd, 2017
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The Mummy remained on top of the international box office chart, but it fell more than 60% to $53.0 million in 68 markets for totals of $239.1 million internationally and $296.2 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in France, but with just $3.0 million on 615 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it was down 77% to $11.63 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $81.62 million. Its best market is arguably South Korea, where it added $3.73 million on 933 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $23.64 million. The only major market left for the film is Japan, where it opens at the end of the month. It is on pace for about $400 million worldwide, which is not enough to pay for its $195 million production budget. Even if it is a bigger than expected hit on the home market, it will have trouble covering its combined production and advertising budget, which is at least $300 million.
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June 22nd, 2017
The winners of our Vroom Vroom contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Cars 3’s opening weekend were...
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June 21st, 2017
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Hare Krishna! The Mantra, The Movement and the Swami Who Started it All earned first place on the theater chart with $22,310 in one theater. The Journey debuted in second place with an average of $16,448 in two theaters. Up next were a trio of wide releases, including the overall number one film, Cars 3, with an average of $12,615. All Eyes on Me opened with an average of $10,698. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Wonder Woman, which spent its third week in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,271.
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June 20th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place over the weekend, but it did so with just $53.69 million, which is lower than anticipated. On the other hand, Wonder Woman remains one of the most impressive wide releases of 2017 when it comes to legs. Even if it didn’t earn another dollar, it would still have above average legs. All Eyez on Me went off to a fast start, but has a troubling internal multiplier, which doesn’t bode well for its future. Overall, the box office rose 31% from last weekend to $189 million. Unfortunately, it fell 19% from the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Fortunately, 2017 still has a sizable lead over 2016 at $5.16 billion to $5.00 billion.
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June 17th, 2017
As anticipated, Cars 3 is cruising to the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Disney predicting a weekend of $53.547 million, as of Sunday morning. While that’s a very respectable figure in anyone’s book (and continues Disney’s domination at the box office this year), it’s down markedly from Cars 2’s $66.1 million opening weekend in 2011, and points towards a final domestic box office around $150 million. If that proves to be the case, it’ll be the second-worst performer ever for Pixar, beating only The Good Dinosaur. Talk of a decline at Pixar is over-blown, in my opinion, but this is still a so-so result by their high standards.
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June 17th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little more subdued than expected, with just $19.5 million for the day. This is a higher opening day than The Lego Batman Movie managed, but family films have a much higher internal multiplier outside of summer, because kids won’t be able to see the movie during matinees on the Friday. If it has the same internal multiplier as Finding Dory had, it would open with $48 million. While Cars 3’s reviews are not as good, it earned an A from CinemaScore, the same as Dory did. Furthermore, Cars 3 is being seen much more by kids than Dory was, as that film had a larger share of adult animation fans, so this should also help its legs. It won’t match our prediction of $58 million, but $51 million is still a great result.
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June 16th, 2017
All Eyez on Me surprised analysts earning $3.1 million during its previews last night. This is better than The Mummy’s $2.66 million earned last weekend, while its reviews are also marginally better. Granted, its Tomatometer score is just 27% positive, so that could kill the film’s legs by Saturday, but this is still a very positive start and the movie will almost assuredly top our prediction of just under $20 million.
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June 15th, 2017
It’s a busy week with four truly wide releases, led by Cars 3. The latest film from Pixar is widely expected to earn first place at the box office, but it is part of the only Pixar franchise that isn’t a critical darling. Rough Night is playing in 3,000 theaters, but its early reviews are mixed and that's not going to help its box office numbers. All Eyez on Me is playing in 2,450 theaters, but its early reviews are even worse. Meanwhile, 47 Meters Down’s early reviews were 78% positive, but that has since changed for the worse. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Finding Dory and Central Intelligence, which earned a combined $170 million. There’s no way the four new releases coming out this week will match that. Even another strong hold by Wonder Woman won’t make a difference in the year-over-year competition and 2017 is going to lose.
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June 14th, 2017
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The winners of our Wrap It Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Mummy’s opening weekend were...
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June 9th, 2017
There could be as many as four wide releases coming out next week, but there are only two that will likely make an impact at the box office. Rough Night should do well in the counter-programming role and might even be a surprise $100 million hit, if everything goes well. However, there’s almost no chance it will top Cars 3 at the box office. Since Cars 3 is widely expected to dominated during its opening weekend, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Cars 3.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2017
May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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May 1st, 2017
Animated adventure starring Owen Wilson opens June 16 ... Full Movie Details.
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