February 27th, 2014
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is nearly finished its international run and this week it debuted in China where it earned first place with 33.04 million 5,500 screens. The film is also playing in nine other markets, where it earned about $100,000 for a total weekend haul of $33.1 million. This lifts its totals to $637.1 million internationally and $893.7 million worldwide. The film opens in Japan this weekend and if it does well there, it could reach $1 billion worldwide.
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January 28th, 2014
There are a large number of first run releases coming out this week on the home market, five in total. This is a huge amount. This week, the latest season of Downton Abby also comes out on the home market, and it is the best selling new release of the week, at least according to Amazon.com. So at the top, it is a really busy week. On the other hand, there's very little depth. Beyond those six releases, there's not a lot to talk about. Out of all of the movies on this week's list, Rush is the best movie, but the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack are only good and not great. On the other hand, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 on Blu-ray or 3D Blu-ray is the best total package. Meanwhile, I finally got a chance to review Carrie (the screener arrived late) and it was better than I thought it would be and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is worth picking up, especially if you haven't seen the original movie.
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December 27th, 2013
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug was the biggest draw on the international chart last weekend adding $97.4 million on 16,840 screens in 56 markets for totals of $278.4 million internationally and $406.0 million worldwide after just two weeks of release. This includes a first place debut in Russia where it made $16.36 million on 2,125 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $19.11 million. This is more or less the same as the first film opened with. (An Unexpected Journey didn't open on Wednesday, but made $17.89 million on 2,128 screens during its three-day opening weekend.)
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December 19th, 2013
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug opened in first place on the international chart with $135.4 million on 16,405 screens in 49 markets. This includes a trio of markets where it topped $10 million. Germany led the way with $19.00 million on 874 screens, compared to $15.01 million earned by the previous film. The U.K. contributed $15.20 million on 580 screens, but that wasn't as strong as the $18.77 million earned by the first installment. France was third with $13.38 million on 909 screens, up from $11.12 million. It also placed first in a number of other major markets with Spain bringing in $7.05 million on 859 screens. It earned $6.24 million on 809 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.25 million. Mexico was up next with $5.07 million on 2,615 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.96 million. Italy and Brazil earned nearly identical results with $4.97 million on 720 screens and $4.86 million on 1,039 respectively.
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December 12th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire again earned first place on the international chart, this week pulling in $42.9 million in 83 markets for a total of $340.6 million internationally and $676.5 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, not unless you count India, where the film made $703,000 on 613 screens. The film has already surpassed its predecessor and it has yet to open in Japan. $800 million worldwide is the current target, which is more than enough to cover this film's combined production and P&A budgets, and possibly the combined budgets for the next next two movies as well.
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November 27th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire had its first wide weekend on the international chart after debuting in Brazil last weekend. It shot up to first place with $146.1 million in 65 markets, including two weeks in Brazil. The film was very strong compared to The Hunger Games in most markets, this was noticeable in the U.K., where it earned $19.8 million compared to $7.78 million for the first film. Germany's haul was $14 million, more than three times the $4.26 million for the original. It grew in Australia as well, but by a more subdued margin of $11.4 million to $9.48 million.
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November 14th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World debuted last weekend, but thanks to a number of new markets this weekend, it was even more dominant on the international chart. It pulled in $94 million in 66 markets, which lifts its running tally to $240.9 million internationally and $326.6 million worldwide. Its biggest market was China where it made $20.98 million. In comparison, Thor made about $15 million there, in total. This is incredible growth. It grew in Russia rising to $11.44 million on 1,500 screens for a total of $24.04 million after two weeks of release. The original Thor finished with $268.30 million internationally, which is a figure Thor 2 will smash through by the weekend. It might make more internationally than the first film made worldwide and it could help Disney break the all-time single year global box office record, currently at $3.791 billion, which it earned in 2010.
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November 8th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World will easily win the race for the top of the box office this weekend. It really has no competition for top spot, and only token competition as far as new releases are concerned. About Time is the only other new wide release, and quite frankly, I should add quotes around both "new" and "wide", as it opened in limited release last weekend, will expand to 1,400 theaters this weekend and it likely won't reach the top five. It will be interesting to see if Ender's Game will hold up next to the competition from Thor, but that seems unlikely. Thor: The Dark World could do well when compared to last year's number one film, Skyfall, but 2013 just doesn't have the depth to thrive, so 2013 will lose again in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 7th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World made its international debut a week ahead of its domestic debut and it crushed the competition with $109.4 million in 36 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned first place with $13.80 million on 522 screens. By comparison, the first Thor film managed $9.11 million on 500. If the film has a similar increase in its opening weekend here, it could open with $100 million. That's probably too optimistic; it did show growth in most major markets, just not as much as it did in the U.K. France was the second best new market with an opening of $9.94 million on 609 screens, compared to $8.69 million for its predecessor. Germany and Mexico were neck-and-neck with $8.31 million on 620 screens and $8.26 million on 2,482 respectively. Russia was strong with $7.59 million on 769 screens. Australia made $6.80 million on 609 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.98 million. Brazil was close behind with $6.69 million on 1,090 screens. In South Korea it made $6.11 million on 843 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.63 million. The only major market to see a decrease was Spain, where the film made $3.34 million on 717 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.82 million. By comparison, Thor made $5.58 million on 562 screens.
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October 30th, 2013
Gravity earned first place for the fourth week with $37.7 million on 7,340 screens in 53 markets for a total of $164.4 million internationally and $364.0 million worldwide. This weekend it debuted in first place in France with a very impressive $10.76 million on 398 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $5.29 million on 531 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $15.55 million. It also repeated in top spot in Mexico with $3.79 million on 1,563 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.04 million after two. The film will likely pull in close to $100 million in just these holdovers, plus it has yet to open in the U.K., Japan and China, so it could make another $100 million in those three markets as well.
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October 29th, 2013
The month long slump 2013 has been on is finally over, thanks in part to Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa. However, the overall box office still wasn't that good, as it was down slightly from last weekend to $102 million. Granted, "slightly" in this case means a fraction of 1%, so it isn't troubling. On the other hand, it was 10% higher than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, year-to-date, 2013's lead over 2012 has shrunk to just $50 million or 0.6% at $8.49 billion to $8.44 billion. In fact, 2013 has not sold less tickets than 2012 had at this point in its run. That's not good and it is unlikely things will turn around in the coming few weeks.
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October 22nd, 2013
As expected, Gravity remained on top of the weekend box office chart for the third weekend it a row. It became the first film released in 2013 to earn the hat trick, and very likely the last. Unfortunately, two of the three wide releases missed expectations, which hurt the overall box office numbers. Compared to last week, the overall box office was down by 11% to $103 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 35%. Ouch. 2013 is still ahead of 2012's pace, but by less than 1% at $8.36 billion to $8.29 billion.
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October 20th, 2013
Gravity will become the first film in 2013 to win three straight three-day weekends, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. With $31 million expected, the film is down just 28% from last weekend and has reached a formidable $170.5 million. That puts in in the top 10 for the year, with plenty more to come. Fellow Oscar-hopefuls 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost and Kill Your Darlins are the other films making waves this weekend (literally in one case).
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October 18th, 2013
There are two wide releases this week, Carrie and Escape Plan. However, neither film is earning critical praise and neither film is expected to be a breakout hit. There is a third film opening semi-wide, The Fifth Estate, but despite being clearly made for Oscars, its reviews are worse than the two more mainstream releases. It looks like Gravity will have no trouble earning the hat trick at the box office. It should also earn more than last year's winner, Paranormal Activity 4. Unfortunately, last year had much better depth than this year will have, so 2013 will likely lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 16th, 2013
Gravity remained in first place with a nearly identical result as last weekend. It was up a barely noticeable amount to $28.5 million on 5,785 screens in 38 markets for a two-week total of $68.3 million internationally. This hold is even more impressive, as its only major market debut came in Brazil, where it opened in second place with $1.67 million on 219 screens. On the other hand, it was down just 9% in Australia with $3.03 million on 471 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.29 million. It fell a little more in Germany down 17% to $3.04 million on 614 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.12 million. In both of those markets, it remained in first place. It fell faster in Russia down 48% landing in second place with $3.88 million on 1,155 million screens over the weekend for a total of $14.12 million after two weeks of release.
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October 15th, 2013
Both Gravity and Captain Phillips topped expectations, which is a reason to celebrate. However, it's practically the only reason to celebrate. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 did well, but from that point on, the box office was a disaster. Overall, the total box office was $116 million, which was down 8% from last week. Compared to last year, the box office was down by 10%. How can this year's top film earn more than twice as much as last year's number one film, but still lose out overall? Last year, the fourth place film was Hotel Transylvania, which earned $17.24 million. This year the fourth place film was Machete Kills, which earned just $3.84 million. The depth this year is simply terrible. Year-to-date, 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by less than 1% at $8.21 billion to $8.15 billion.
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October 11th, 2013
There are two wide releases this week: Captain Phillips and Machete Kills. The former is a potential Awards Season player, while the latter is definitely not. Unfortunately, neither seems likely to challenge Gravity for top spot at the box office this weekend. Captain Phillips should come in a solid second place, while Machete Kills will try not to under-perform when compared to Runner Runner's opening from last weekend. Gravity could help 2013 top last year's box office, which was led by Taken 2 in its second weekend of release. The best new release was Argo, but it opened with less than $20 million and Captain Phillips should top that. However, last year had much better depth and might prove to be too much for 2013 to overcome.
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October 11th, 2013
Gravity opened in first place on the international chart with $28.4 million on 4,830 screens in 27 markets. This includes a number of first place openings, led by Russia, where it made $7.57 million on 1,219 screens. It also earned first place in Germany with $3.65 million on 569 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.87 million. Australia was right behind with $3.35 million on 469. Italy contributed $2.75 million on 399, while in Spain it earned $2.26 million on 325.
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October 8th, 2013
Gravity crushed expectations, and records, over the weekend with more than $55 million. This topped the previous biggest October weekend by more than $3 million. On the other hand, Runner Runner went nowhere opening well below the lower end of predictions. Overall, the box office rose 16% from last year reaching $127 million. Unfortunately, last year had much better depth and 2013 was 11% lower in the year-over-year comparison. 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but the lead has been cut to just 0.9% at $8.05 billion to $7.98 billion.
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October 3rd, 2013
There are two films opening wide this week: Gravity and Runner Runner. However, while the two films share a release date, they are at the opposite ends when it comes to box office potential and critical acclaim. Gravity should have an easy time winning the race for the top of the box office chart, and if its reviews can translate into Awards Season buzz, then it should have very strong legs. On the other hand, many analysts expect Runner Runner to stumble out of the gate and disappear before the end of the month. This weekend last year, Taken 2 opened with just under $50 million, which is too much for Gravity to match. Frankenweenie earned $11 million during its opening weekend, which is a figure Runner Runner should match, but might not. Overall, 2013 looks a lot weaker than 2012 was.
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October 3rd, 2013
The winners of our Take a Chance, Again contest were determined and they are...
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October 1st, 2013
It wasn't a great weekend at the box office, as four of the five films in the top five missed expectations. On the other hand, no film in the top five really bombed, so it wasn't a bad weekend either. It was solidly mediocre. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opened in top spot with just over $34 million. This was better than its predecessor opened with, but below the lofty expectations. Overall, the box office pulled in $109 million over the weekend, which was 26% higher than last weekend. On the other hand, it was 9% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 still has a lead over 2012, but it has shrunk a little bit over the past two weeks. After this weekend, the lead was down to 1.2%, or $7.90 billion to $7.81 billion. It's not reason to panic, yet, but an extended losing streak late in the year is harder to recover from than one that happens in spring.
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September 29th, 2013
As expected, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 will be the comfortable winner of this weekend's box office race with a healthy $35 million beginning, according to Sony's Sunday estimate. That puts the film on course for the 4th-biggest weekend in September and is about $5 million ahead of the opening for the first film in the franchise. Given hopes of a $40 million debut, the film could be said to have underperformed slightly (and it will almost certainly not top the original's $124.8 million domestic total), but given the timing of the release, the studio will have reason for modest celebration in the midst of their worst year since 2005. The top of the chart in general has a middling-to-good-enough look to it this weekend.
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September 27th, 2013
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 leads a group of four wide releases (three wide releases and a wide expansion, if you want to get technical). It should have no problem being the biggest hit of the weekend. It has a good chance of having the biggest opening weekend of the month. The other films coming out this week will be fighting for a smaller portion of the overall box office, but that's to weak competition, all should grab a spot in the top five. Last year, September ended with Hotel Transylvania, which debuted with $42.52 million; that's a good target for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2. Second place went to Looper, which pulled in $20.80 million. That will top any of the other new releases coming out this week, but I'm hoping there will be better depth this year and 2013 can eke out a win.
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September 20th, 2013
Next week we have three wide releases, and another film expanding wide. However, only one of those films has a shot at earning first place, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2. Since there's only one choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest, it was actually more difficult coming up with a name for the contest. (In the end, I just used the name I used for the Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and added "Again" at the end.) In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Nashville: Season One on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Nashville: Season One on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 1st, 2013
August ended, and we should be very grateful for that. Lee Daniels' The Butler was a surprise hit, while We're the Millers did better than expected. However, most other films that were expected to be solid hits failed to live up to expectations. Fortunately, August of 2012 was even worse, so 2013 regained the lead on the year-to-year comparison during the month. Looking forward, there is exactly one film that will likely become more than a midlevel hit in September: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2. That film has a chance to reach $100 million in total. Most of the rest of the new releases will be lucky if they get halfway there. Fortunately, September of 2012 was even worse. Hotel Transylvania was a surprise hit, earning nearly $150 million, and there were a few others that topped $50 million, but there were also several outright bombs. If we can avoid those types of bombs, then 2013 should continue its winning streak.
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