March 21st, 2016
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This week, there are not many releases to talk about and one of them, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, is dominating the list so much that I could ignore the rest of the list and very little of substance would be lost. I'm not going to do that, but I could. The Box Set is a contender for Pick of the Week, but I'm still waiting for the screener. City Lights is another contender for Pick of the Week, but in the end, I went with the Canadian movie, Mountain Men on DVD, which is Puck of the Week.
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January 20th, 2016
As anticipated, Ride Along 2 earned first place over the long weekend earning more than it cost to make in just four days. The other two wide releases were less successful. Despite costing more to make, 13 Hours earned less than half Ride Along 2 opened with, while the less said about Norm of the North, the better. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was pushed into third place over the three-day weekend, but it rose to first place on the daily chart on Monday. It is not done yet. The overall, the three-day weekend was up 4.2% from last weekend; however, it was down 18% from last year. This is not surprising, as this weekend last year, American Sniper set the record for biggest January weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $693 million, giving 2016 an early lead over 2015. That lead was cut to 5.9% or $39 million and will likely be cut further next weekend. Hopefully it won't be entirely gone.
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January 14th, 2016
Star Wars: The Force Awakens will finally relinquish its hold on the weekend box office and there are three new releases looking to grab as much of the box office share as they can. Ride Along 2 is the film with the best shot at first place, assuming its reviews don't kill it. The Revenant should have one of the best week-to-week declines, thanks in part to its Awards Season success. 13 Hours looks like a solid top-five film, but not a major hit, while Norm of the North is just hoping not to embarrass itself. This weekend last year, American Sniper expanded wide and set the record for biggest January weekend. That record fell earlier this year, but that's not a lot of comfort for this weekend, as all three new releases combined won't match American Sniper's haul. 2016's winning streak will end at two weeks. Hopefully the upcoming losing streak won't be much longer than that.
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January 12th, 2016
Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned first place on the weekend chart for the fourth time and likely the last time. It was a close race, as The Revenant beat expectations; meanwhile, The Forest was very solid as counter-programming. The overall box office was $159 million, which is 28% less than last weekend, but 26% more than the same weekend last year. After just two weeks, 2016 is 19% / $70 million above 2015's pace. Granted, it is way too early to make any long terms predictions and next weekend will be brutal for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison, but every little bit now will help at the end of the year.
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January 7th, 2016
The big news this week was Star Wars: The Force Awakens being officially crowned the All-Time Domestic Box Office champion. It should follow-up that news with yet another first place finish on the weekend box office. There are two films trying to take its crown: The Forest and The Revenant. The Revenant is a very likely Oscar winner and has performed phenomenally well in limited release, so it has a real shot at box office success this weekend. On the other hand, The Forest is a low-budget horror film that is just hoping to land in the top five. This weekend last year was led by Taken 3 with just under $40 million over the weekend, while Selma earned second place with $11 million. The Force Awakens might make more than those two films combined, but even if it doesn't, the one-two punch of The Force Awakens plus The Revenant will give 2016 an easy win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 4th, 2016
As expected, Star Wars: The Force Awakens dominated the weekend box office earning $90.24 million, breaking several records along the way. However, it did fall 40% over the weekend, which is a lot for this time of year. It appears The Force Awakens is acting more like a typical blockbuster hit and less like the typically leggy December release. That said, I don't think Disney is disappointed with the results so far. On the other hand, The Hateful Eight got off to a disappointing start earning third place with just a fraction of Django Unchained's opening weekend. The overall box office was down from last week, but was still an incredible $219 million. This was 26% lower than last week, but 41% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is a little less useful, as 2016 is only 3 days old, but it is 27% higher than 2015 was after the first weekend. This is even more impressive, as 2015 had an extra day before the weekend.
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January 3rd, 2016
This weekend sees the first signs of a slow-down at the box office for The Force Awakens, which will be down 41% from last weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s the worst comparative performance in the top ten, and much weaker than Avatar’s 9% decline the same weekend in 2010. Such statistics are fairly academic when you already have $700 million in the bank domestically, though, and Star Wars’ momentum coming out of the holidays is such that it will register the biggest ever New Year’s weekend, and the biggest-ever 3rd weekend, overtaking Avatar’s $68.5 million. With $770.5 million overseas so far, its global total is now over $1.5 billion, putting it in the top six all time, and guaranteeing it will end in the top three, with only Titanic and Avatar left to shoot for.
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January 2nd, 2016
It took just 15 days for Star Wars: The Force Awakens to overtake Jurassic World’s final domestic box office. On Friday, the film earned an easy first place with $34.46 million to push its running tally to $686.43 million. Not only is this the best domestic box office for a film released in 2015, it is more than enough to overtake Titanic and push it into second place All-Time. As for the film’s weekend projection, we are looking at a $95 million weekend, plus or minus $5 million. It is possible the film could crack $100 million over the weekend, but very unlikely. That said, it has already broken a couple of major records—Fastest to $650 million and Biggest Domestic Hit of 2015—and will likely break a few more over the weekend (Fastest to $700 million, Biggest third weekend, and Biggest January weekend).
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December 31st, 2015
There are two questions that are being asked about this weekend. Firstly, will Star Wars: The Force Awakens become the first film to earn $100 million three weekends in a row? Secondly, will The Hateful Eight live up to Django Unchained? I'm going to say no to both, but the former is much more likely than the latter. The rest of the top five should look the same as last time, with Daddy's Home being the best of the holdovers. The Force Awakens should earn more than the top five did last year, giving 2016 a fast start on the year-over-year comparison.
One last note, there are only two limited releases this week, including Anomalisa, which we previously talked about. The only other limited release is Devil and Angel, which has no reviews, so there's not much to talk about. Because of this, there will be no Limited Release Report this week.
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December 29th, 2015
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The Revenant had the best theater average of the week and the second best opening theater average of the year with $474,560 in four theaters for an average of $118,640. The only film to open in 2015 with a better theater average was Steve Jobs with an average of $130,381. It struggled during its wide expansion. Hopefully that won't happen here. The Hateful Eight was next with an average of $46,107 in 100 theaters. The overall number one film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, was next with an average of $36,092. This would have been the fourth best opening weekend average for a wide release all year. 45 Years opened with an average of $21,925 in three theaters over the weekend and an average of $30,119 over its five-day opening. Daddy's Home was the second wide release in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,844. Mr. Six just missed the $10,000 club over the weekend with an average of $9,562 in 30 theaters; however, it earned an average of $12,500 over its four-day opening.
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December 28th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily won the weekend race, but not by as much as anticipated. On the other hand, Daddy's Home was a surprise hit and should cruise to $100 million. None of the rest of the new releases really bombed and most will end their runs as midlevel hits. Overall, the box office fell just 5.1% from last weekend to $295 million, which is the second biggest combined weekend of all time. It was also 41% bigger than the same weekend last year and 2015's year-over-year lead grew to 7.0%. It looks like the 2015 box office will reach $11 billion when all is said and done, but we won't know for sure till we get the absolute final numbers.
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December 27th, 2015
The Star Wars juggernaut continues to roll through box office records all around the world this weekend. It will pass $1 billion globally today, Sunday, in just its 12th day in release—one day faster than Jurassic World. That blockbuster figure is largely thanks to an incredible $544 million after just ten days domestically, far ahead of Jurassic World’s $402 million at the same point in its run. The Force Awakens has now broken records for every milestone from $50 million to $500 million, with more to fall. The current record for fastest to $550 million is also Jurassic World, which reached the mark in 24 days. Star Wars will do it in eleven. After that, we will start looking at some serious all-time records.
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December 26th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens set another record by earning $49.34 million on Christmas Day. This more than doubles the previous record of $24.61 million held by Sherlock Holmes. However, this was only 79% more than it made on Christmas Eve, whereas Avatar rose 107% on the same day in its run. You can't even say Avatar had it easy due to weaker competition, so perhaps the explanation lies elsewhere. Perhaps a lot of people who were scared off by the crowds thus far decided to see the movie on Christmas Eve, because it is historically a slow day a the box office. That’s certainly what I was thinking. Because of this, I'm lowing my expectations for the weekend from $170 million to $160 million. This would have been a good opening weekend result for the film. It will be well above the current Record Second Weekend of $106.59 million by Jurassic World.
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December 23rd, 2015
There are five wide releases / wide expansions this week, none of which will even come close to Star Wars: The Force Awakens' second weekend of release. The rest of the box office combined won't come close to The Force Awakens' sophomore stint. It looks like Daddy's Home has the advantage for second place, while Joy should be close behind. The Big Short expands wide on Wednesday and its five-day total should be close to the previous two films' three-day totals. On the downside, it looks like both Concussion and Point Break will open on the outside of the top five. The Force Awakens will make more than the entire top ten made this weekend last year, so 2015 will end the year on a very positive note in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 1st, 2015
November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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