Home Market Releases for June 25th, 2019

June 26th, 2019

It is an absolute nightmare on the home market. There’s no monster hit to talk about, but there are a mountain of new releases that are selling well enough that they could have been featured in the main list and about twice as many that could have been included in the Secondary Blu-ray release. I had to trim some of them to keep the list manageable. Unfortunately, the list of Pick of the Week contenders is rather short with just Megalobox: Season One and Frankie Drake Mysteries: Season Two, both of which are worth owning. However, the biggest and best release of the week is Captain Marvel. The screener arrived late, but I finally got the review of the Blu-ray online. That said, I’m going to award Frankie Drake Mysteries with Puck of the Week for best Canadian release. More...

Weekend Estimates: Godzilla Towers Above the Competition

June 2nd, 2019

As expected, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is leading the way on the weekend box office chart. However, it is falling a little short of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $49.03 million. The film earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is much better than its reviews, but still not stellar, while the genre isn’t known for long legs, so I’m not sure about its future. It is performing a lot better internationally with $130 million on 52,000 screens in 75 markets, including $70 million in China and $8.4 million in Japan. It has nearly matched its $200 million production budget in just one weekend, while it has yet to open in Spain and a few smaller markets. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Aladdin Earns $100 million Opening

May 28th, 2019

It was a great weekend for Aladdin and an okay weekend for the box office as a whole. Aladdin made more over the three-day portion of the weekend than most predicted it would make over four days. Unfortunately, not all of the rest of the films were able to pull their weight. The overall box office still grew 23% from last weekend reaching $181 million, but it slipped when compared to last year. Granted, it fell less than $1 million or 0.5% when compared to the same weekend last year, which is such a small gap that it is practically a tie. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $4.31 billion, which is 9.2% or $440 million lower than 2018’s running tally of $4.75 million and this number needs to improve over the coming weeks. More...

Friday Estimates: Aladdin Has a Memorable Start with $31 Million

May 25th, 2019

Aladdin is looking stellar after a $31.0 million opening Friday. The film’s reviews are nothing special, but it scored an A from CinemaScore, so clearly audiences are loving the movie much more than critics did. The word-of-mouth should help its legs and this puts it on pace to top $100 million over the four-day weekend and even top last year’s top film, Solo: A Star Wars Story, with about $107 million. This is much better than most predictions and a return to form for live-action Disney remakes after Dumbo’s disappointing run earlier in the year. It could even help 2019 top 2018 in the year-over-year comparison, but that depends on the rest of the new releases and holdovers also matching or exceeding expectations. That doesn’t look as promising. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Aladdin Opens with a Lucky $7 million - Update

May 24th, 2019

Aladdin got off to a great start, earning $7 million from previews last night. Granted, this is just half of what Solo: A Star Wars Story made during its previews last year. However, that film was the definition of the Fanboy Film, while Aladdin is clearly aimed at families and it should therefore have better legs as a result. We could also compare the film to Dumbo, which managed $2.6 million, or Beauty and the Beast with its $16.3 million in previews. If this film can have similar legs as those two films did, then it will have a great opening and top our prediction. Here’s hoping that’s the case. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Aladdin Grant the Box Office its Wish?

May 23rd, 2019

It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the biggest weekends of the year. However, this year there are not a lot of prime new releases to talk about. Aladdin is the only new release expected to become even a midlevel hit, while both Booksmart and Brightburn are expected to struggle in their counter-programming roles. The three new releases will be competing for spots in the top five with three holdovers, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, Avengers: Endgame, and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu. That’s six films competing for five slots, so one of them will miss out. This weekend last year, Solo: A Star Wars Story led the way with $84.42 million over the three-day weekend. There are many who think Aladdin won’t make that much over four days. I’m a little more bullish than most, but I don’t think 2019 will get back in the winning column this weekend. Aladdin’s numbers haven’t picked up as they should have. More...

International Box Office: Endgame isn’t the Only Game in Town

May 2nd, 2019

Avengers: Endgame absolutely destroyed the international record book earning $866.5 million internationally for a worldwide debut of $1.223 billion. However, as daily readers will know, we’ve been tracking these numbers as they have been released, so there’s no need to go into further detail here. You can see the most recent Daily Tracking here. More...

International Box Office: Curse is Blessed with a First Place Debut

April 24th, 2019

The Curse of La Llorona earned first place on the international chart with $29 million on 13,155 screens in 71 markets. This is excellent for a film that cost $9 million to make. However, it is also playing in nearly every major market, so it doesn’t have a lot of room to grow. The film had a very strong opening in Mexico with $5.1 million on 2,432 screens, while it was equally strong in Colombia with $2.3 million on 421. It easily earned first place in both markets. On the other hand, the film struggled in France ($2.0 million on 254 screens); Spain ($1.8 million on 330 screens); and Russia ($1.1 million on 1,758). It failed to crack $1 million over the weekend in a number of major markets. It came the closest in South Korea with $905,000 on 620 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.25 million, while it was further behind in Italy ($852,000 on 314 screens) and Brazil ($775,000 on 561). The film opens in the U.K. and Japan in the next couple of weeks. More...

Weekend Prediction: Can Shazam Continue its Streak or will New Releases Break Through?

April 19th, 2019

It’s Easter weekend and, while it is not a true long weekend, there are enough kids out of school to give the box office a boost. On the negative side, Avengers: Endgame comes out next weekend and no one wants to try to compete against that. Because of this, none of the three wide releases this weekend are in the top tier. The one with the biggest potential is The Curse of La Llorona, but it is also earning the worst reviews of the weekend. Breakthrough is the first film made by Fox to come out since the studio’s acquisition by Disney was finalized, so there’s some significance there. Finally there’s Penguins, a film I thought would be a hit, but isn’t garnering much attention. This is not a strong contingent of new releases and Shazam could remain on top. This weekend last year wasn’t Easter weekend, so maybe that will give 2019 the edge. I don’t think 2019 will win in the year-over-year competition, but hopefully it will at least be close. More...

International Box Office: Shazam Flies Higher than Dumbo

April 17th, 2019

Shazam remained in first place on the international chart, despite not opening in any new markets, major or otherwise. This caused it to fall to $35.3 million on 24,633 screens in 79 markets lifting its totals to internationally and $258.4 million worldwide. The film fell 84% in China down to $4.79 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $40.30 million. It held on better in the U.K., down 47% to $2.83 million in 611 theaters for a two-week total of $11.65 million. The film’s last major market is Japan and it opens there this week. If it does well there, then it will have no trouble crossing $400 million worldwide, which is a great run for a film that cost $85 million to make. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Shazam Shocks the New Releases

April 16th, 2019

Shazam easily topped the weekend box office chart with $24.45 million. This is significantly more than the best new release of the week, Little, which managed $15.41 million during its opening weekend. That film will break even sometime during its home market run. The same can’t be said of Hellboy, After, and Missing Link, all of which will lose money. This caused the overall box office to fall 24% from last weekend to just $110 million. This is also 25% lower than this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has fallen further behind 2018 and it now behind with $550 million or 17% at $2.68 billion to $3.23 billion. Avengers: Endgame will have to be unreasonably big at the box office for 2019 to turn things around any time soon. More...

Weekend Estimates: Shazam Stops New Releases Cold

April 14th, 2019

Shazam really bounced back from a poor Friday performance. So much so that it almost match our prediction with an estimated $25.14 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $94.31 million. Internationally, the film is projected to earn $35.9 million on 23,752 screens in 79 markets to push its international total to $163.9 million. This means its worldwide total rose past $250 million after just two weeks of release. The film will have no trouble breaking even after a run like this, even with Avengers: Endgame looming large. More...

International Box Office: Shazam Hits Century Mark During Opening Weekend

April 11th, 2019

Shazam stormed to the top of the international chart with an opening weekend haul of $102.3 million on over 40,000 screens in 79 markets. The film’s biggest market was unsurprisingly China, where it earned second place with $30.4 million on 20,939 screens. The film earned first place in a quartet of major markets. This includes Mexico ($5.8 million on 2,669 screens); the U.K. ($5.3 million on 1,533); Russia ($5.2 million on 3,072 screens); and Brazil ($5.1 million on 1,509 screens). This is a great start, especially for a film that “only” cost $85 million to make. However, there’s some bad news here. There’s almost no where left to open, as its only other major market debut is in Japan on the 19th of April. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Shazam Can’t Keep 2019’s Streak Going

April 9th, 2019

Shazam topped expectations over the weekend, albeit by a small margin. However, it was the only new release to do this and the overall box office wasn’t particularly strong as a result. It did rise 6.2% from last weekend reaching $146 million. However, it wasn’t able to keep 2019’s winning streak alive in the year-over-year comparison, as this was 11% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 extended its lead over 2019 and now has an advantage of $500 million at $3.03 billion to $2.53 billion. If you are looking for good news, then the percent difference actually closed by a fraction of one percent. To call that good news is stretching. More...

Weekend Estimates: Shazam Flies to First Place with over $50 million

April 7th, 2019

Shazam is easily topping the weekend box office chart with an estimated $53.45 million for a total of $56.78 million, including its previous special engagement. This is marginally better than our prediction, but not as strong as I thought it would be after its surprising previews. The film should have strong legs with its amazing reviews, its A from CinemaScore, and its family-friendly target audience. On the other hand, Avengers: Endgame is on its way, and that film could practically end Shazam’s run at the box office. Internationally, Shazam is opening with an estimated $102 million in 79 markets. This includes $30.9 million in China, as well as $6.2 million in Mexico. On the other hand, it only managed $5.3 million in the U.K., which is far less impressive than its debut here. More...

Friday Estimates: Shazam’s Shockingly Strong Start

April 6th, 2019

Shazam was able to take full advantage of its impressive previews, and its $20.5 million Friday debut should be enough to carry it above our initial prediction. Its reviews remain above 90% positive and it earned an A from CinemaScore. Furthermore, its a hit with families, so that should also help its legs over the rest of the weekend and beyond. As for the film’s international debut, it is almost as impressive, as the film earned $29.2 million on Friday for a three-day total of $44.0 million in 79 markets. It is not doing as well as it is here, at least relative to the sizes of the markets, but this is still a fantastic start for a film that cost $85 million to make. If there isn’t already a sequel in the works, there will be one shortly. More...

Weekend Prediction: Shazam Should have a Super Start

April 4th, 2019

Shazam is the biggest release of the weekend and will almost certainly be the second biggest hit of the month. It also has some of the best reviews of the year so far. Pet Sematary should be in a solid second place, both in terms of box office dollars and reviews. Finally there’s The Best of Enemies, which is not only the smallest release on this week’s list, but it is also earning the weakest reviews. However, the biggest box office hit of the weekend will very likely be Avengers: Endgame, as tickets went on sale during the week and I suspect advanced ticket sales for that film will top everything coming out this week. (Early tracking for that film is nearing $300 million just for its opening weekend.) This weekend last year, A Quiet Place opened with just over $50 million, a little more than the next two films combined earned. Fortunately for 2019, there was a huge drop-off from the top three to the rest of the releases, so if we have better depth this year, then 2019 could continue its winning ways. More...

Theater Averages: Dumbo is Lonely at the Top

April 4th, 2019

Dumbo was the only film in the $10,000 Club at the weekend, as it earned an average of $10,798 while earning first place on the overall chart. The best limited release was Diane, which earned an average of $8,156 in three theaters. More...

International Box Office: Dumbo’s International Flight

April 3rd, 2019

Dumbo opened in first place with $71.0 million in 53 markets during its opening weekend on the international chart. This is about as good as its debut here. The film’s biggest market was China, but it only made $10.75 million during its opening weekend there. It did relatively better in the U.K. and in Mexico. The film earned first place in both markets with $7.92 million in 666 theaters and $7.71 million respectively. There are no more major markets for the film to open in, so it will have to rely on long legs to break even any time soon. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dumbo Marches to the Top

April 2nd, 2019

Dumbo wasn’t able to match expectations, but it still topped the chart over the weekend with $45.99 million. This isn’t enough for this weekend to match last weekend, as it fell 7.3% to $137 million. This is better than the same weekend last year by a tiny 0.6%, but anything that keeps 2019’s winning streak alive is good news in my book. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by practically the same margin as it was last weekend. In fact, the margin in raw dollars rose to $470 million, while the percent gap dipped below 17% at $2.34 billion to $2.81 billion. Hopefully things will improve in April. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dumbo Tops Chart with $45 million

March 31st, 2019

Dumbo will open in first place with over the weekend with an estimated $45.0 million. This is lower than expected and not a strong opening for a film that reportedly cost $170 million to make. It did marginally better internationally, earning $71.0 million, but it is also playing in all major markets, so it has almost nowhere to expand at this point. Going forward, the film should have decent legs, in part because it is a family film. Also, while its reviews are not going to be a major asset, it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so its word-of-mouth is going to be better than its critical reception. However, unless it has really long legs, it is going to be a real challenge to pay for that production budget any time soon. Part of the reason I think this film is struggling is “Franchise Fatigue”. Granted, I’m not sure I would call Disney’s Live Action Remakes a real franchise, not unless they start doing some crossovers to unite the universe. (Don’t do that. Please don’t do that.) However, I do think it is susceptible to the same fatigue and this is a real problem for Disney, because they have two more major releases for this year, plus about a dozen further releases in various stages of development. More...

Friday Estimates: Dumbo Flies, But Doesn’t Reach Blockbuster Heights

March 30th, 2019

Dumbo opened with $15.32 million on Friday. This is weaker than expected, but hardly a bad start. Its reviews are merely mixed, while it got an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be decent. I don’t think it will reach $50 million over the weekend, so it will miss even low end expectations. That said, a $46 million opening is more than enough to get it to $100 million domestically and if it can find an audience internationally, it will break even sometime during its home market run. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Dumbo Doesn’t Fly High During Previews

March 29th, 2019

Dumbo earned $2.6 million during its previews, which is on the low end of expectations. It is just a fraction of the $16.3 million Beauty and the Beast managed in 2017. Additionally, this film’s reviews are the weaker and this could also affect its legs. On the other hand, Beauty and the Beast had such massive buzz is was destined to be more front-loaded that Dumbo will be. I still think Dumbo will miss our $58 million prediction, but I don’t think it will be as bad as this number first makes it appear. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dumbo Soar Like the Original Did?

March 29th, 2019

Dumbo essentially has the weekend to itself and should earn first place with ease. Both The Beach Bum and Unplanned are opening in just over 1,000 theaters, but neither is expected to be a major player at the box office. Finally, Hotel Mumbai is expanding into nearly 1,000 theaters and could reach the top ten. At least one of these smaller films will reach the top ten; in fact, all three of them could reach the top ten. However, this is due to really weak competition, not any box office strength these films possess. This weekend last year, Ready Player One led the way with $41 million, while Acrimony earned second place with $17 million. There’s a chance Dumbo will earn more than those two films earned. There’s also a chance Us and Captain Marvel will match those two films at the box office. It should be a good weekend for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Estimates: Us Appeals to a lot of us with $70 Million Opening

March 24th, 2019

Us made the most of its opening weekend with an estimated debut of $70.25 million, which is much higher than even the high end of expectations. If this opening holds, it would be the tenth-biggest March opening, but that’s a big if. It’s just behind 300 and just ahead of The Lorax, so I expect it to change a spot when Monday’s final numbers are released. The film should have reasonable legs going forward, as its reviews are a major asset, while it earned a B from CinemaScore, which is a good result for a horror film. Internationally, the film is opening ahead of Get Out, but far behind its domestic debut with an estimated $16.7 million in 47 markets. This includes the U.K., where it earned $3.7 million during its opening weekend. However, it only cracked $1 million in three other markets: France ($2 million); Germany ($1.4 million); and Spain ($1.2 million). More...

2019 Preview: March

March 1st, 2019

2019 has been terrible so far and by the end of February, will be about half a billion dollars behind 2018’s pace. March should be the first step in 2019’s attempt to recover from this hole it has dug for itself. Captain Marvel will be the biggest film of the year so far and tracking has it opening with more than $100 million during the second weekend of March. While that film is undoubtedly going to become the biggest hit of the month, it isn’t the only potential hit opening in March, as both Us and Dumbo are expected to earn $100 million domestically; Dumbo might even top $200 million domestically. As for last March, there were only two films that hit $100 million, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One, and neither of them came close to $200 million. There’s a slim chance this March will be better than last year, even if we ignore Captain Marvel. We could cut the deficit in half by the end of the month, if everything goes well. Then again, if everything went well during the first two months of the year, we wouldn’t be in such a deep hole at this point. More...

Dumbo Trailer

June 13th, 2018

Tim Burton’s family adventure, starring Colin Farrell, Alan Arkin, and Eva Green opens March 29th, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...