May 28th, 2020
Sonic the Hedgehog was released on DVD / Blu-ray / 4K last week and that helped it climb into first place on the DEG Watched at Home chart. The film was already in fifth place last week on the strength of its digital releases, so it has had a very profitable run on the home market already.
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May 20th, 2020
I think it’s a great week on the home market for a few reasons, one of which is selfish. Amazon finally got its act together and upcoming releases are appearing on the site so I can pre-plan weeks, which makes my job easier. It also is making my wallet very scared, because there are a number of amazing releases coming out soon. This includes several new releases this week that are worth picking up like Buffaloed, Emma., Justice League Dark: Apokolips War, etc. and those aren’t even the contenders for Pick of the Week. That list is limited to The Good Place: The Complete Series Blu-ray and The Quintessential Quintuplets: Season 1. In the end I went with The Good Place, which I think will have a wider appeal.
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May 18th, 2020
Emma. is the latest adaptation of the Jane Austen novel of the same name. It was previously adapted a number of times, arguably most famously as Clueless back in 1995. The film earned excellent reviews and opened well in limited release, but it struggled when it tried to expand and was all but gone from theaters the weekend after. However, it also opened just as the Covid-19 pandemic became a serious threat in the United States and its box office numbers were obviously negatively impacted by those events. Is it worth checking out for fans of period pieces? Or would it have struggled even under better circumstances?
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March 20th, 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak has hit all 50 states and in many of them it is a state of emergency. Mass theater closings hasn’t stopped all limited releases, but I assume Video on Demand will generate a lot more business this weekend. Because of the COVID-19 outbreak, there are so few theatrical releases that, starting this week, I am including made-for-VOD and streaming releases, including some original TV shows. We are also going to include theatrical releases that were fast-tracked to VOD this week. If you don't want to / can't hit theaters this week (and the overwhelming advice coming from the professionals is not to), you can watch some big movies early on the home market, including The Invisible Man, Onward, and others. Stay safe!
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March 17th, 2020
Not a single film cracked the $10,000 club this weekend with Inside the Rain coming the closest with an opening of $8,140 in its lone theater.
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March 12th, 2020
First Cow was one of two films in the $10,000 club earning an average of $20,331 in four theaters. The Booksellers was the only other member of the $10,000 club opening with $15,794 in its lone theater.
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March 10th, 2020
It was a bad weekend at the box office. There’s really no way to spin this in a positive way. Onward opened just below the low end of predictions with just $39.12 million. The Way Back couldn’t make up the difference, as it only managed $8.17 million. The overall box office was up 2.0% from last weekend at just over $100 million. Sadly, this was 52% lower than the same weekend last year when Captain Marvel debuted. I don’t think anyone truly thought 2020 would win this weekend in the year-over-year competition. However, I don’t think many thought it would lose this badly. In fact, 2020 has slipped below 2019’s pace by 1.3% or $22 million at $1.68 billion to $1.70 billion. This is a disaster.
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March 8th, 2020
According to Disney, Onward will earn $40.0 million during its opening weekend. I strongly suspect they rounded up to get to that number, because opening below $40 million would have been a lot harder to spin in a positive way and they wanted to delay that admission one more day. Or maybe the final weekend number will be higher and I will have egg on my face. If it does match its estimates, it will still be on the lower end of expectations, but it will at least have a very healthy internal multiplier, meaning its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are helping its box office numbers. The film’s demographics were evenly split with 52% of the audience being female and 42% being general audiences vs. 58% families. Internationally, the film really struggled with just $28.0 million in 47 markets. The film opened in most major markets and this includes first place debut in the U.K. ($4.4 million); France ($3.3 million); and Mexico ($3.0 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in both Russia ($2.1 million) and Germany ($1.9 million). The film is going to need very long legs or a massive home market run to break even any time soon.
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March 7th, 2020
It looks like March will start slower than anticipated, as Onward only managed $12.1 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $40 million during its opening weekend. If it does miss $40 million by any real degree, then it will be Pixar’s worst wide opening since Toy Story. Even if it avoids that fate, it is on pace to have the worst three-day opening for a Pixar film since The Good Dinosaur, and that film opened on a Wednesday. I’m not sure how to explain this other than look at the COVID-19 outbreak. Granted, its reviews are strong, but well below average for the studio. Likewise, its CinemaScore is a mere A minus, which isn’t great for a family film. It’s still good, but not great, certainly better than its box office numbers would indicate.
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March 6th, 2020
The first weekend of March should be much better than the last weekend of February was, as Onward is widely expected to be a much bigger hit than The Invisible Man was. Unfortunately, it is also widely expected to not be enough to compete with what Captain Marvel made this weekend last year. In fact, it isn’t expected to make as much during its opening weekend as Captain Marvel made during its opening day. 2020 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 6th, 2020
Saint Frances was the only new release to land in the $10,000 club opening with $14,298 in one theater. The re-release of Come and See continued to do well earning $12,859, also in one theater. Emma expanded into nearly 100 theaters earning an average of $11,955 along the way.
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March 1st, 2020
The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last March Captain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January.
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February 27th, 2020
Emma played matchmaker with audiences and succeeded to the tune of $234,000 in 5 theaters for an average of $46,896. It has significant expansion planned for this weekend and an opening like this is a hopeful sign. On the other hand, I don’t think Come and See will expand significantly, as re-releases rarely do. That said, it did earn $16,053 in one theater, so that theater is happy they booked it. It isn’t looking as bright for Seberg. Granted, it did earn an average of $15,727 in three theaters; however, it was very front-loaded and that’s a bad omen going forward.
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February 23rd, 2020
Sonic the Hedgehog will remain in first place over the full weekend, albeit with a weaker-than-predicted sophomore stint of $26.3 million. That said, the film already has $106.6 million after just two weeks of release, which is likely more than Paramount thought it would earn in total. It is still too early to tell where the film will finish internationally, but there is also reasons to be optimistic there, as it has nearly $100 million in just two weeks of release, including $38.3 million in 56 markets this weekend. This includes a first place opening in Russia with $6.3 million on 1,800 screens, which is an impressive debut for that market and this time of year.
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February 22nd, 2020
The Call of the Wild really bounced back from Thursday’s previews to earn $8.05 million on Friday. The film is projected to earn $24 million to $25 million over the weekend, which is much better than predicted and puts it in a virtual tie with Sonic the Hedgehog for top spot. It is likely to have better legs than most new releases, because of its target audiences, which is a mix of families and older moviegoers who would be fans of the original novel. Additionally, its reviews are good, but not great, and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is also good, but not great, for a family film. Unfortunately, it still has that $125 million production budget to deal with, so breaking even is very unlikely. Maybe it can save face though.
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February 21st, 2020
There are plenty of well-reviewed limited releases on this week’s list, including Emma, which is also earning the loudest buzz. I’m personally most interested in seeing Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll, but True Fiction, Vitalina Varela, and some others are also intriguing.
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February 1st, 2020
We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others.
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January 7th, 2020
Historical drama, based on the novel by Jane Austen, starring Anya Taylor-Joy, opens February 21 ... Full Movie Details.
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