October 31st, 2021
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There was something for everyone in movie theaters this weekend, but the combination of Halloween falling on the weekend and too much competition made going tough for the six films either opening, expanding, or being re-issued in wide release. The competition hit Dune a touch harder than our model expected, but it will easily remain the top film at the box office, with $15.53 million taking it to $69.4 million in total after 10 days. With another $21.4 million from international markets, it now has $292.1 million worldwide so far.
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September 3rd, 2021
One of the oldest box office records on the books will be broken this weekend as Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will break The Sixth Sense’s 22-year-old record for the best Labor Day weekend in theaters. That record stands at just $29.27 million, not adjusted for inflation, but Shang-Chi will almost certainly break the inflation-adjusted record of $53.99 million too, based on our weekend prediction and analysis of its Thursday preview numbers. It would have to show surprising legs over the weekend to beat Black Widow’s $80-million and claim the best weekend of 2021 though. The real question is whether it can top F9’s $70-million second-place figure.
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August 1st, 2021
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Get ready for Big Thunder Mountain Railroad: The Movie everyone. Disney’s strategy of converting its theme park rides into adventure movies is hitting pay dirt again this weekend with Jungle Cruise on its way to a $34.2-million debut, according to the studio’s Sunday morning projection. That’s substantially above our model’s prediction, and it’s not the only movie to be earning more than expected: The Green Knight will earn about $6.8 million this weekend to land in second place. Those two films more than make up for the softness of the returning titles, and we are looking at a welcome “up” weekend for the market as a whole.
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July 25th, 2021
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M. Night Shyamalan returns to the top of the box office charts this weekend, but he might be the only person celebrating as every opening and returning film in the top 10 looks set to underperform this weekend. Shyamalan’s new film, Old is coming closest to our model’s prediction with an opening of $16.5 million, which is 12% below what the model expected. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins will come second with $13.35 million, which is 15% behind expectations. Those results are both well within the model’s margin of error, but the collective performance of the market is troubling.
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July 18th, 2021
Families returned to movie theaters in a big way this weekend, and helped propel Space Jam: A New Legacy to a strong $31.65 million opening, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. With Escape Room: Tournament of Champions also beating our model’s prediction, the newcomers made up for soft results for returning films.
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July 11th, 2021
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Disney is celebrating a global opening worth a projected $215 million for Black Widow, thanks to $80 million in domestic theatrical receipts, $78 million in international box office, and over $60 million in Disney+ Premier Access consumer spending. That makes it the biggest domestic opening at the box office since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in December, 2019, and about $10 million more than F9’s pandemic-era record set two weeks ago. The studio is also celebrating more than $100 million in consumer spending in the domestic US/Canada market—and claiming another pandemic record—although theater owners are wishing that more of that money had flowed in their direction this weekend.
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July 9th, 2021
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As of Friday morning, all signs point towards a spectacular opening weekend for Black Widow. The most eagerly-anticipated film of the Summer posted $13.2 million in previews between 5pm and midnight on Thursday, per Disney, which easily tops the $7.1 million preview earnings posted by F9 a couple of weeks ago. F9 went on to earn $70 million over its opening weekend, which was just shy of 10 times the earnings from its preview shows. If Black Widow does the same it’ll surge past the $100 million market. Whatever happens, it’s set for the biggest weekend of the pandemic era, and our models say $100 million is well within reach.
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July 4th, 2021
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The long July 4 weekend is being dominated by one studio (and for once it’s not Disney). Universal Pictures are reaping the rewards of releasing three high-profile films in two weeks. F9: The Fast Saga will top the chart for a second weekend with a projected $24-million three-day weekday that takes the action movie to $117 million in total so far, the second-highest earnings for a film during 2021 domestically. The Boss Baby: Family Business is headed for second place with $17.36 million, and The Forever Purge will be third with $12.75 million. All three films are coming in somewhat behind our model’s Friday predictions.
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July 2nd, 2021
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Two films that couldn’t be more different arrive in theaters this holiday weekend. The Boss Baby: Family Business is a classic family-friendly animated comedy adventure that’s trying to draw in parents and their children. The Forever Purge is an action horror movie targeted at everyone in between. With F9: The Fast Saga returning after a blockbusting opening last weekend, there’s something for everyone playing in movie theaters this weekend. While F9 is favorite to win, all three films could do good business, according to our model.
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June 27th, 2021
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F9: The Fast Saga will post an opening weekend right in line with Friday-morning expectations, with Universal projecting, as of Sunday morning, that the action movie will earn $70 million this weekend. That’s easily the biggest weekend of the year so far, beating The Quiet Place: Part II’s $47.5 million over the three-day portion of Memorial Day weekend. All told, we should see a $100-million weekend in movie theaters for the first time since March 6, 2020.
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June 25th, 2021
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There’s no question which film will top the box office this weekend. F9: The Fast Saga has long been anticipated as a landmark release as theaters reopen around North America, pandemic restrictions are lifted, and audiences regain their appetite for sitting in an enclosed space with hundreds of strangers. It doesn’t even have much competition—$6 million might be enough for it to win the weekend, and it already earned more than that in previews last night. The real question is how much it will bring in this weekend. Given its pedigree and buzz, the minimal benchmark for success is the $47.6 million earned by A Quiet Place: Part II on its Friday–Sunday opening weekend over the Memorial Day holiday. All the signs are that it will go much higher than that.
Here’s what our model has to say this morning…
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June 20th, 2021
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The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard will pull off a relatively easy win at the box office this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting it will earn $11.675 million from Friday to Sunday for a five-day opening a shade over $17 million. That’s a decent start for an action comedy, which our model says should be doing about $8 million at the moment, but it’s a shade behind our Friday prediction, which projected $13.6 million based on its solid $3.9 million opening day. All-in-all, that adds up to a glass-half-full/empty weekend at the box office.
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June 18th, 2021
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The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard looks like it should win the weekend fairly comfortably based on its opening day figures from Wednesday and the track record of action comedies that opened mid-week. Nothing is assured in the topsy-turvy world of 2021, but it would take a steep dive from the newcomer and an unexpectedly strong hold by A Quiet Place: Part II to see a different outcome.
Here’s what our model has to say this morning…
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June 13th, 2021
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We won’t know for sure until final numbers are reported on Monday, but it looks as though A Quiet Place: Part II will move back to the top of the box office chart this weekend, fractionally edging out In the Heights. The difference in their respective Sunday-morning projections is just $245,000 though, with Quiet Place expected to earn $11.65 million and In the Heights $11.405 million, which is within the margin of error (particularly considering box office is harder to predict for the studios at the moment as market conditions are changing so much). In fact, Peter Rabbit 2 (projected to earn $10.4 million) and The Conjuring 3 (projected for $10.02 million) are technically still in the running for the win, although that would be a big surprise given they’re over a million dollars back on today’s tracking.
However things shake out, there’s a good chance we’ll have four films earn over $10 million at the box office this weekend, which would be a new pandemic-era high if the numbers hold. The less good news is that In the Heights didn’t hit, well, the heights that were hoped for going into the weekend. It did come very close to what our model expected though.
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April 14th, 2021
Action movie starring Vin Diesel, John Cena, Michelle Rodriguez, Jordana Brewster, and Chris “Ludacris” Bridges opens in theaters on June 25. Full movie details…
Dom Toretto is leading a quiet life off the grid with Letty and his son, little Brian, but they know that danger always lurks just over their peaceful horizon. This time, that threat will force Dom to confront the sins of his past if he’s going to save those he loves most. His crew joins together to stop a world-shattering plot led by the most skilled assassin and high-performance driver they’ve ever encountered: a man who also happens to be Dom’s forsaken brother, Jakob.
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