This graph shows Vin Diesel’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Entering its third week at the box office, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will three-peat as the widest release by retaining its count of 4,450 theaters from its first two weeks. The film currently enjoys a global box office total of $545 million, with $231 million of that coming from North American cinemas. Unlike last week and next week, we see only one wide release hitting theaters, but it’s a big one: Fast X.
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All good things must come to an end, as is the case with The Super Mario Bros. Movie sitting atop the widest release list, but more importantly at the box office. Since its debut on April 7, Mario and friends have collected just short of a half billion dollars domestically, while enjoying a worldwide total of over $1 billion. There is still ample opportunity however to see Super Mario on the big screen as the film is still widely available in 3,909 cinemas. This week attention turns to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 though, as it becomes the widest release, starting in 4,450 locations.
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Two films that couldn’t be more different arrive in theaters this holiday weekend. The Boss Baby: Family Business is a classic family-friendly animated comedy adventure that’s trying to draw in parents and their children. The Forever Purge is an action horror movie targeted at everyone in between. With F9: The Fast Saga returning after a blockbusting opening last weekend, there’s something for everyone playing in movie theaters this weekend. While F9 is favorite to win, all three films could do good business, according to our model.
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Dom Toretto is leading a quiet life off the grid with Letty and his son, little Brian, but they know that danger always lurks just over their peaceful horizon. This time, that threat will force Dom to confront the sins of his past if he’s going to save those he loves most. His crew joins together to stop a world-shattering plot led by the most skilled assassin and high-performance driver they’ve ever encountered: a man who also happens to be Dom’s forsaken brother, Jakob.
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Wash your hands. This could be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, perhaps even the worst weekend of the past several years. COVID-19 has caused the suspension of the NBA and NHL seasons, while practically every wide release for the next several weeks has been pushed back indefinitely. This news is very likely going to hurt ticket sales as people are taking the concept of “self isolation” seriously. Last weekend, Onward and Sonic the Hedgehog were hit the hardest, which makes sense, as families would be the first to avoid going out because of a pandemic, but now I think general audiences will also avoid crowds. Worse still, none of the three wide releases were expected to be anything more than midlevel hits at the best of times. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if none of Bloodshot, The Hunt, and I Still Believe hit $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, Captain Marvel earned $67.99 million during its second weekend of release. That will be more than the three new releases will open with combined. It could be more than their combined domestic totals.
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The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last MarchCaptain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January.
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Avengers: Infinity War and its still unnamed sequel are the culmination of ten years of the MCU. This is a massive undertaking, even more so than the first Avengers movie, and with the MCU’s outstanding track record with critics and moviegoers alike, expectations couldn’t be higher. Can the movie possibly live up to expectations? Or was it destined to disappoint?
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Like we did with The Force Awakens, we are going to do a spoiler-free, detail-free review for Avengers: Infinity War. In other words, we are going to rate all of the movies in the MCU to see where Infinity War and the rest fit into place.
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Well, March has ended and it was a very disappointing month. Black Panther made more than any of the new releases did. The only potential big hit that didn’t miss expectations was Ready Player One. Because of this, 2018 lost its lead over 2017 and is now over $100 million behind last year’s pace. April is usually a terrible month, because it is a dumping ground, especially late in the month. No studio wants to compete with the first monster hit of the Summer. This year, the first monster hit of the summer, Avengers: Infinity War, opens in April. It will make more during its opening weekend than any other April release will make in total. It might make more opening day than any other April release will make in total. The only film that has a real chance to earn more than $100 million is Rampage, a video game adaptation. Last April, The Fate of the Furious earned more than $1.2 billion worldwide, but “only” earned $225.76 million of that domestically. Infinity War should earn more than that opening weekend. The second biggest hit of last April was Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style, both of which earned $45.02 million. If 2018 doesn’t retake the lead by the end of the month, then 2018 is in trouble at the box office.
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Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 was the second biggest hit of the summer and the third biggest hit of 2017 so far. It is also part of the MCU and there hasn’t been a truly bad movie in the MCU so far. Spoiler alert: This movie doesn’t break the winning streak. However, it could be a really good movie and still not live up to the original. Is that the case? Or can Vol 2 outshine the first installment?
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March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
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December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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This week the home market is led by a Blu-ray double-dip, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, while there is also an Oscar contender, Bridge of Spies, on the top. After that, the list is filled with bombs and weaker limited releases. It was an easy choice to select Snow White as Pick of the Week.
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Dismal is about the politest word that can be applied to the box office performance of new releases this weekend. None of the five films new in wide release managed to make the top three on the chart, and two of them didn’t even crack the top ten. That leaves The Martian and Goosebumps to battle it out for first place, and a fourth-week decline of just 25% for The Martian looks virtually certain to give it the win. Fox projects it will make $15.9 million for a total by the end of the weekend of $166 million or so. Its performance to date falls neatly between that of Interstellar and Gravity, which puts the sci-fi adventure on course for a final domestic box office of $230 million (see full comps here).
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Where to start? There are so many new releases to talk about and none of them did well. Some did so poorly that talking about them seems mean. So, let’s start by saying that Friday’s box office chart was led by The Martian, while Goosebumps has a shot at repeating on top of the chart, with each film earning about $14 million to $15 million. Meanwhile, Bridge of Spies should earn third place over the weekend with between $11 million and $12 million.
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The box office prediction contests for the past few weeks have had a horror / "horror" theme. That is to say, two people won horror movies and the third won movies that were so bad it is scary they exist. There are four new releases this weekend and they all epitomize the latter. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension has a review embargo, which is never a good sign, while the other three wide releases are all earning less than 20% positive reviews. Does that mean there's nothing worth seeing this week? Nope. Fortunately, Steve Jobs is expanding wide and should earn first place at the box office. It is the only film on this week's list with a shot at $20 million. This weekend last year, Ouija nearly reached $20 million and five other films earned $10 million. I don't think we will match that this year. It could be close and any gain or loss in the year-over-year comparison should be in single digits, so there's no reason to be overly concerned.
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September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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Furious 7 is the latest in the Fast and the Furious franchise. The films started out okay, but critical reception fell quickly. It wasn't until Fast Five when the filmmakers realized they were making, in essence, live-action cartoons that they truly found their voices. This focus helped the box office, so much so that Furious 7 became just the third film to earn more than $1 billion internationally and just the fourth film to earn $1.5 billion worldwide. Is the quality up to the same level as its box office? The odds of that are nearly zero. However, is it at least as entertaining as its box office numbers would indicate?
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In a Summer already littered with franchise films, it’s good to see something original top the charts, even if it is something as rote as a disaster movie based on an earthquake in California. The $53.2 million projected opening for San Andreas is something of a triumph for Dwayne Johnson, who carries the film as its sole lead, unlike his contributions to the Furious 7 ensemble. With only the domestic opening numbers in, Johnson has already moved up to third on our top current stars list, and will most likely pass Vin Diesel for second place before San Andreas’ run is over.
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March ended on a good note and helped 2015 maintain its lead over 2014 thanks to a trio of $100 million movies: Cinderella, Insurgent, and Home. April isn't as strong as far as depth goes, as only Furious 7 is expected to come close to $100 million at the box office. On the positive side, it could earn $100 million during its opening weekend, becoming the fastest starting film of the year, so far. On the negative side, it is expected to earn more than double the rest of the films' combined box office totals. Even worse, last April, there were two $100 million hits, including Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as two others that came close. There's no way April 2015 is going to live up to April 2014. I just hope the collapse isn't so bad that 2015 loses its lead over 2014 completely.
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At the moment, Guardians of the Galaxy is the highest grossing film released in 2014. (Mockingjay, Part 1 still has a chance of catching it, depending on how well it does over Christmas). It is also one the the best-reviewed wide releases of 2014. As a fan of Marvel Comics in general and the Marvel Cinematic Universe in particular, I had very high hopes for this film. Was the buzz warranted? Or was this a case of too much hype?
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July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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As a franchise, Fast and the Furious appeared burnt out in 2009. Tokyo Drift bombed failing to match its production budget domestically and likely losing a ton worldwide. Fast and Furious saw the return of the original cast, which helped it return to previous heights in terms of box office dollars, but critics eviscerated it. Then, defying logic, Fast Five became the biggest hit in the franchise and earned the most criticalpraise. Can Fast and Furious 6 maintain this momentum? Or was Fast Five just a fluke?
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August ended, and we should be very grateful for that. Lee Daniels' The Butler was a surprise hit, while We're the Millers did better than expected. However, most other films that were expected to be solid hits failed to live up to expectations. Fortunately, August of 2012 was even worse, so 2013 regained the lead on the year-to-year comparison during the month. Looking forward, there is exactly one film that will likely become more than a midlevel hit in September: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2. That film has a chance to reach $100 million in total. Most of the rest of the new releases will be lucky if they get halfway there. Fortunately, September of 2012 was even worse. Hotel Transylvania was a surprise hit, earning nearly $150 million, and there were a few others that topped $50 million, but there were also several outright bombs. If we can avoid those types of bombs, then 2013 should continue its winning streak.
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As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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