May 5th, 2023
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Everything we know so far about the performance of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 points towards an opening weekend close to $110 million. That’ll knock The Super Mario Bros. Movie off top spot, but the video game adaptation won’t have any trouble holding on to second spot as Love Again looks likely to struggle.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
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October 23rd, 2017
It was a terrible summer at the box office, but Spider-Man: Homecoming was one of the few bright spots. It was one of three films to cross $300 million domestically and has a slim shot at finishing in the top five for the year. Does it deserve this success? Or did it thrive just because it’s part of the MCU?
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October 8th, 2017
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Wonder Woman is the fourth film in the DCEU and apparently it is one of the last. (Warner Bros. recently came out and said they would be focusing on individual stories and downplaying the overall continuity for a while. Smart move.) Wonder Woman broke a number of records during its box office run, including biggest box office hit for a female director, biggest super hero original movie, etc. and in the end, it was the biggest domestic hit of the summer. Did it deserve this success? Or was it only good compared to the previous installments in the DCEU?
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August 23rd, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 comes out this week and it is such a big release that is scared away nearly all of the competition. Fortunately, it is also a great film and a serious contender for Pick of the Week. The main competition are Ash vs Evil Dead: Season 2 and Supergirl: Season 2. In the end. I went with Ash vs Evil Dead, but it was a close race.
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August 20th, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 was the second biggest hit of the summer and the third biggest hit of 2017 so far. It is also part of the MCU and there hasn’t been a truly bad movie in the MCU so far. Spoiler alert: This movie doesn’t break the winning streak. However, it could be a really good movie and still not live up to the original. Is that the case? Or can Vol 2 outshine the first installment?
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August 8th, 2017
Summer has likely ended at the box office, while it is about to begin on the home market. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the first of the summer monster hits to come out on the home market. Granted, it is only out on Video on Demand this week, but it is still a contender for Pick of the Week. There are a couple of other contenders, including Cinematic Titanic: The Complete Collection and Re-Animator: Limited Edition 2-Disc Blu-ray, but in the end, I went with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
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July 23rd, 2017
Dunkirk will easily top the chart at the box office this weekend, with a $50.5 million opening weekend from 3,720 theaters that’s broadly in line with expectations, and also remarkably similar to the first weekend for Interstellar, which opened with $47.5 million from 3,561 theaters back in 2014. It seems that the film has reached the Christopher Nolan fan base, but not extended much beyond that. Remarkably, Pearl Harbor remains the record holder for biggest opening weekend for a World War II movie, with the $59 million it earned back in 2001 (equivalent to roughly $93 million with today’s ticket prices).
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July 16th, 2017
A weekend estimate just ahead of our prediction for War for the Planet of the Apes, and a one just below our prediction for Spider-Man: Homecoming means there’s a clear winner at the box office. War will come in with $56.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Homecoming will finish second with $45.2 million.
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July 13th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming earned first place in one of the closest races I’ve seen. It pulled in $140.03 million on 24,287 screens in 71 markets for a worldwide opening of $257.06 million. Its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $19.37 million on 1,965 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $25.94 million. It also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($12.11 million in 616 theaters) and Mexico ($11.72 million on 3,506 screens), while it came close to that mark in Brazil with $9.09 million on 1,302 screens. The film did amazing business in Asia, including earning $6.84 million on 1,092 screens in Indonesia and $6.46 million on 1,900 screens in India. The film has yet to open in a number of major markets, including France, Germany, China, and Japan and should top $800 million worldwide with ease before it is done, which is enough to break even before it reaches the home market. The real challenge is surpassing Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the worldwide chart for the summer. It is too soon to tell if it will get there for sure, but this is a great start.
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July 11th, 2017
The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend.
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July 8th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming dominated the box office on Friday and in a pleasant surprise, it beat predictions with $50.5 million during its opening day. Its opening day vs. its previews is almost identical to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which would put the film on pace for $130 million over the weekend. Spider-Man: Homecoming did earn better reviews, while both movies earned a solid A from CinemaScore, and many more kids have no school on Monday compared to when Guardians debuted. All of this should help its legs. On the other hand, Homecoming could have a bigger Fanboy Effect, as Spider-Man is a much more established character. Because of that, I’m going to be a little more cautious and predict a $125 million opening weekend. This is still simply fantastic and the only downside is Sony and Disney have to work together to make this work in the long term. This is Sony’s second best domestic opening of all time. (Spider-Man 3 is the only one that beats it.) It could open with more than last year’s number one domestic hit for the studio, Ghostbusters, earned in total. Sony has a lot of reasons to work with Disney to keep Spider-Man in the MCU.
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July 7th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming needed to make more than Wonder Woman during its previews in order to match it at the box office. Wonder Woman’s audience was disproportionately female, especially more mature women. This demographic tends to help a film’s legs at the expense of its opening weekend. So if Homecoming only made a little more than the $11.0 million Wonder Woman made, it would fail to crack $100 million over the weekend. Fortunately, it crushed that figure with $15.4 million on Thursday night. This is the third-best figure for previews this year, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the better comparison, as the audiences for the two films match up nearly perfectly. If Homecoming does match Guardians’ legs, then it will earn just over $130 million over the weekend. I think the fact that this is the sixth Spider-Man movie and third incarnation of the character in 15 years will hurt its legs a little bit, but $125 million is the new goal to aim for. The only downside here is behind-the-scenes, as the character is being shared by Sony and Disney and I’m not sure how long they can work together.
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July 6th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.
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July 1st, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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June 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight had the weekend to itself, but it couldn’t take advantage earning $44.68 million / $68.48 million over the full five days. It earned less over five days than last year’s winner, Finding Dory, earned over three days. Wonder Woman remained in second place becoming just the third film released in 2017 to hit $300 million, but there was not much else to celebrate at the box office. This explains why the overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $139 million. More importantly, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but its lead was cut in half to just 1.3% or $70 million. This is a little distressing.
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June 22nd, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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June 17th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little more subdued than expected, with just $19.5 million for the day. This is a higher opening day than The Lego Batman Movie managed, but family films have a much higher internal multiplier outside of summer, because kids won’t be able to see the movie during matinees on the Friday. If it has the same internal multiplier as Finding Dory had, it would open with $48 million. While Cars 3’s reviews are not as good, it earned an A from CinemaScore, the same as Dory did. Furthermore, Cars 3 is being seen much more by kids than Dory was, as that film had a larger share of adult animation fans, so this should also help its legs. It won’t match our prediction of $58 million, but $51 million is still a great result.
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June 13th, 2017
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The weekend box office had a few surprises, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, Wonder Woman had the best hold for a major super hero movie since Spider-Man and is on pace for $340 million to $375 million. On the negative side were all three new releases. The Mummy finished on the low side of already low expectations, while It Comes At Night pleased critics, but not moviegoers. Meanwhile, Megan Leavey missed the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office fell 22% from last weekend to $144 million. This is 5.7% lower than this weekend last year. Fortunately, since this time last week, 2017 expanded its lead over 2016 by about $20 million at $4.90 billion to $4.73 billion. We are almost halfway through the year, so a $175 million / 3.7% lead is solid. It isn’t impossible for that lead to evaporate, but it is enough to be cautiously optimistic about the final tally.
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June 7th, 2017
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Wonder Woman opened in first place on the international chart with $122.5 million in 55 markets for a global opening weekend of $225.8 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it opened in first place with $38.96 million. This is about $10 million less than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with recently, but then again, that was a sequel, so it is not an entirely fair comparison. Should Wonder Woman have better legs there, then it could still hit $100 million in that market. Other big markets for the movie include South Korea, where it earned $6.40 million on 1,034 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.41 million. This is better than Suicide Squad managed in that market, but behind Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Brazil and Mexico were close behind with $8.3 million and $8.22 million respectively. This is better than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, but not as good as BvS or Suicide Squad. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in the U.K earning $8.00 million in 599 screens, which was still enough for first place. It only managed second place in Russia with $3.99 million on 1,194 screens. Overall, the studio should be happy with these results and I bet there’s a sequel already in early stages of development.
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June 6th, 2017
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The overall box office bounced back after a weak Memorial Day thanks to two critically acclaimed movies. Wonder Woman led the way with $103.25 million, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was way back with $23.85 million. Overall, the weekend box office pulled in $185 million, which is 31% more than last weekend. It is also 37% more than the same weekend last year. This helped 2017’s lead over 2016 grow by nearly a full percentage point to 3.5% at $4.69 billion to $4.52 billion.
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June 3rd, 2017
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As expected, Wonder Woman led the way on Friday; however, its box office was a little lower than I would have liked with $38.85 million. (I was expecting $42 million on Friday.) This still gives the film a slim shot at $100 million, although it will likely fall a little short. Fortunately, there are some positive signs we should focus on, including the reviews, which ticked up a point to 94% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Meanwhile, the film earned a solid A from CinemaScore, which should also help its legs. It could still hit $100 million, if it does exceptionally well during matinees on Saturday. We will know this time tomorrow when the weekend estimates are released.
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June 2nd, 2017
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Wonder Woman had the third best previews for 2017 so far at $11 million. Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.4 million) have topped it, while it is double what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned just last weekend. This represents the biggest previews for a movie directed by a woman, surpassing Fifty Shades of Grey and I'm very happy this film took away a record from Fifty Shades. So what does this tell us about the film’s box office chances? Sadly, not much. It is right were most people were expecting, so I don’t feel the need to adjust our prediction, but there are a lot of unknown factors that could affect the weekend number. Firstly, the film’s reviews are 93% positive and the word-of-mouth should be just as strong. However, the Fangirl Effect could frontload the film’s box office numbers, thus hurting its legs. There have not been enough female led superhero movies to come out to make a judgment at this time. At the moment, $100 million seems safe, but that could change this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates come in and that number could drop to $90 million or rise to $120 million. Hopefully it is the latter.
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June 2nd, 2017
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It’s the first weekend of June and it looks like it could be a monster weekend. Wonder Woman could earn over $100 million during the weekend, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is hoping to hit $100 million in total. Both have a great chance of getting there. Add in some solid holdovers and this weekend should earn close to $200 million. By comparison, this weekend last year was nowhere near as strong with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earning first place with just $35.32 million. Wonder Woman will earn more than that opening day. There’s a chance Wonder Woman will earn more over the weekend than the top five earned this weekend last year.
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June 1st, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales dominated the international box office earning five times more than the rest of the top five combined. The film pulled in $208.4 million in 54 markets and had $271.4 million worldwide by the end of its first weekend. Its biggest single market was China, where it earned $68.55 million over the weekend. This is bigger than its domestic opening. While this is impressive, it is only the third biggest opening in China for a Disney film, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America: Civil War. On the other hand, the film had a big opening in Russia with $19.10 million, which is the biggest opening weekend in that market of all time. However, it wasn’t all good news, as the only market left to open in is Japan, so it will have to rely on long legs to continue its run.
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May 31st, 2017
Memorial Day long weekend wasn’t as potent as expected as both new releases struggled. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales led the way with $78.47 million over four days. This marks the third year in a row where no film released on Memorial Day long weekend earned at least $100 million over four days. I’ve heard some talk that this means it is losing its importance as a long weekend. However, I think the actual answer is much simpler, as it is also the third weekend in a row where no wide releases have earned overall positive reviews. I don’t think the box office power of Memorial Day has dropped since X-Men: Days of Future Past came out. I just think the quality of films has dropped since then. Speaking of lack of quality, Baywatch was DOA earning just $27.71 million over five days and unlike Dead Men Tell No Tales, it likely won’t do significantly better internationally. Despite both new releases struggling, the holiday helped the overall box office grow 14% from last weekend to $141 million. Unfortunately, this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 still maintains its lead over 2016, but that lead as slipped to 2.6% or $110 million at $4.46 billion to $4.35 billion.
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May 27th, 2017
As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned first place at the Friday box office. Unfortunately, it missed the low end of expectations with $23.40 million, putting it on pace for a $62 million three-day weekend and a $73 million total opening. The film’s reviews are just 32% positive, putting it in a tie with On Stranger Tides for worst in the franchise. On the other hand, the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore compared to a B plus for the previous installment, so that should help its legs a little. That said, the film cost $230 million to make, so unless it is a monster hit at the international box office, there’s little hope the sequel teased in the end credits will happen.
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May 25th, 2017
It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the best long weekends at the box office all year. However, this year the two new releases are far from the best. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales has the worst reviews in the franchise and its domestic box office will likely be the same. Sadly, Baywatch’s reviews are even worse. That said, they should still finish one-two over the weekend, while Alien: Covenant and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will be in a race for third place. It likely won’t be close. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass opened one-two during the weekend with results that are similar to what Dead Men Tell No Tales / Baywatch are expected to make. I don’t know if 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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May 25th, 2017
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Dangal became the first Indian film to have its biggest single market not be India. It earned first place in China with $34.22 million over the weekend for totals of $113.55 million in China, $185.6 million internationally, and $198.0 million worldwide. It will shortly become the second Indian film to earn more than $200 million worldwide.
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May 23rd, 2017
As expected, Alien: Covenant earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, it had a strange journey there. Everything, Everything earned more during its opening weekend than it cost to make, which is great news for the studio. On the other hand, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul will be the last entry in this franchise for a long time. Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 became only the second film released in 2017 to hit $300 million domestically. Unfortunately, the good news didn’t outweigh the bad news and the overall box office fell 10% from last weekend to $122 million. Compared to last year, the weekend box office was 11% lower. Fortunately, 2017 still has a $130 million lead over 2016 at $4.23 billion to $4.10 billion, so there’s no reason to panic.
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May 20th, 2017
As expected, Alien: Covenant earned first place on Friday’s box office chart. This is a little better than originally predicted, but in line with our adjustment after Thursday’s previews. Unfortunately, it is not all good news. The reviews are 73% positive, which is good, but it only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is low enough to hurt its legs. We’re still going with just over $40 million over the weekend and over $100 million in total, but this might not be enough to be a real financial success.
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May 18th, 2017
Alien: Covenant is looking to unseat Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the box office chart this weekend. Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything are just trying to survive in counter-programming roles. The prognosis for those two is mixed. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. This year, there might be only two. Hopefully the new releases aren’t that bad, while the holdovers don’t completely collapse. If this happens, 2017 could win in the year-over-year comparison for the second weekend in a row. If not, then 2017's winning streak will end at one.
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May 17th, 2017
For the third weekend in a row, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 led the international box office chart, earning $52.2 million in 56 markets for totals of $384.4 million internationally and $632.8 million worldwide. This pushes it into seventh place on the MCU chart. The film opened in second place in Japan, where it pulled in $3.0 million, which is 15% better than the original Guardians of the Galaxy did. On the downside, this is the film’s last market to open in, so it will be coasting on holdovers from now on. Speaking of holdovers, the film’s biggest market is China, where it added $15.16 million over the weekend for a total of $80.56 million. This is the film’s biggest single market and it could hit $100 million there shortly.
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May 16th, 2017
Paris Can Wait topped the theater average chart earning nearly $100,000 in just 4 theaters for an average of $24,713. The overall number one film, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, landed in second place with $15,013. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe, which earned $11,729 in its lone theater. Manifesto just missed the mark with $9,628 also in one theaters. However, it was a Wednesday release and managed $11,824 during its five-day opening.
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May 16th, 2017
As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 crushed the competition this weekend earning more than Snatched and King Arthur: Legend of the Sword’s combined openings. However, it held on better than expected down 55% to $65.26 million. The overall box office still fell by 30% from last weekend to $136 million. This is 3.8% higher than the same weekend last year. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 held on better than Captain America: Civil War did during its sophomore stint, but it was strong depth that helped 2017 win the year-over-year comparison. It didn’t win by much, so the overall lead still shrunk to 3.4% at $4.07 billion to $3.93 billion, but any lead is good news.
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May 14th, 2017
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King Arthur: Legend of the Sword has proved to be a costly bet gone wrong for Warner Bros. and Village Roadshow. The film had a long gestation period, and ended up costing $175 million to make. Once another $100 million or so of marketing is added in, that makes for a target of at least $550 million at the global box office before anyone starts recouping anything from the film. A domestic opening of $14.7 million, and $29.1 million overseas, makes that a laughably-distant prospect. Adding to the embarrassment, King Arthur will start out in third place, behind Mothers Day-play Snatched, and even that film isn’t doing particularly well, when all is said and done.
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May 13th, 2017
The Friday box office had a couple of surprises, but not at the top. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 easily won the race for number one with $16.43 million. This is 70% lower than its opening Friday, which is distressing. Granted, Sunday is Mother’s Day, so it could bounce back more than it would during the average weekend, and our prediction of just over $60 million is still a solid bet.
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May 11th, 2017
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There are two wide releases coming out this week, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched. However, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will likely destroy them at the box office. The real question is whether or not the top three films this year will out-earn the three films from this weekend last year. At the beginning of the month, I thought that would happen, but now I’m not so sure. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 missed expectations last weekend and King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched haven’t seen their buzz grow like most new releases do. I don’t think 2017 will get crushed like it did last weekend, but I also don’t think it will end its mini-losing streak either.
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May 11th, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 remained in first place on the international chart with $123.8 million in 55 markets for totals of $282.6 million internationally and $429.1 million worldwide. The film is already ahead of the worldwide totals of a couple of MCU alumni, The Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger. The film opened in first place in a trio of major markets this past weekend: China, South Korea, and Russia. Its biggest opening came in China, no surprise there, where it earned $48.56 million over the weekend for a total opening of $49.47 million, including limited previews. It earned $12.79 million in 1,370 screens over the weekend in Russia. The film earned $6.92 million on 1,218 screens in South Korea over the weekend for a total opening of $13.20 million. In each of these markets, Vol 2 showed strong growth compared to the original Guardians of the Galaxy. In fact, Vol 2 earned more during its opening weekend than the original earned in total ($11.0 million). At this pace, the film will have no trouble matching the original worldwide and its legs will determine if it can reach $1 billion.
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May 11th, 2017
The winners of our Guard These Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2’s opening weekend were...
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May 10th, 2017
Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 earn first place on the weekend box office chart, it was also the top film on the theater average chart earning an average of $33,704. This is the fourth best result of the year so far, second best for a wide release. (Beauty and the Beast is still the best of the year with an average of $41,508.) Second place went to the re-release of Stalker with $20,540 in its lone theater. The Lovers was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $16,572 in four theaters.
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May 8th, 2017
For the eighth year in a row, a Marvel movie started the summer blockbuster season. This time around, it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which earned $146.51 million, or roughly 75% of the total weekend box office of $194 million. That figure is nearly double the box office from last week, an increase of 97%, to be more precise. Unfortunately, this is also 19% lower than the same weekend last year when Captain America: Civil War dominated the chart. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the gap has narrowed to 4.5% at $3.88 billion to $3.71 billion.
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May 7th, 2017
It’s the first weekend in May, and that means it’s time for another installment from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Two years ago Avengers: Age of Ultron blasted out the gates with $191 million. Last year, Captain America: Civil War debuted with $179 million. And now, this weekend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will launch with a shade over $145 million, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. The steady decline in opening numbers for those three films raises a few questions about the long-term future of the franchise, but there is no universe in which $145 million isn’t a great performance.
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May 6th, 2017
As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 dominated the box office chart on Friday. However, it didn’t do quite as well as we predicted with $56.26 million. It would have needed north of $60 million to get to $156 million over the weekend. Its reviews are fantastic, the best in the top ten by quite a margin, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so it should have solid legs over the weekend. On the other hand, it is a sequel and those tend to be more front-loaded, so look for $138 million over the weekend. It is still very early, but the film appears to be on pace for $350 million domestically and close to $900 million worldwide. This is clearly a monster hit, even if it is not quite as large as anticipated. To put it in perspective, it is the sixth best May opening of all time, so there's plenty of reasons to celebrate this debut. On a side note, four of the five films ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 on that list are from the MCU. The lone exception is Spider-Man 3. Marvel owns May.
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May 5th, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 started its box office run with $17 million in previews on Thursday night. This is the best previews so far this year, just topping the $16.3 million Beauty and the Beast earned previously. Unfortunately, this is well below the $25 million Captain America: Civil War managed this time last year. Its reviews are 82% positive, which will be the best in the top ten this weekend and that should help its legs. We predicted an opening weekend of $156 million and I’m relatively happy with figure after this result. That might end up a little to optimistic, but close enough to call it a victory.
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May 4th, 2017
The summer blockbuster season unofficially begins this weekend with the release of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. There are no other films opening wide this week, so it will dominate the chart like few films are able to. In fact, the film’s only real competition is Captain America: Civil War, which opened this weekend last year. There’s very little chance Vol 2 will start as fast as Civil War started, but it could have better legs. I think 2017 will lose the year-over-year comparison this weekend, but the rest of the month should be better.
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May 3rd, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 started its international run in first place with $101.2 million in 37 markets. The film’s biggest single market was the U.K., where it dominated the market with a 67% market share and $16.94 million in 632 theaters. This is 86% above the opening the original opened with in that market and the second best opening in that market this year. It also cracked $10 million in Australia earning $6.44 million on 705 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.72 million. This is more than half of the total weekend box office and an improvement of 27% from the original film; however, the Wednesday opening reduced its weekend haul. Other major markets include Germany ($8.3 million); Mexico ($8.13 million); France ($7.9 million); and Brazil ($6.9 million). Given this start, the film should be able to reach $500 million internationally, maybe even $600 million, depending on its legs. That would give it a realistic shot at $1 billion worldwide.
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May 3rd, 2017
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The winners of our Circle of Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Circle’s opening weekend were...
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May 1st, 2017
April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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April 30th, 2017
The last weekend before the Summer season is generally a quiet one, but two breakout hits aimed at niche audiences are making this one interesting. How to Be a Latin Lover will post a shade over $12 million from just 1,118 theaters, according to Lionsgate’s weekend estimate. That would be the news of the weekend if it wasn’t for Baahubali 2: The Conclusion earning the best weekend for a Bollywood movie in history with a stellar $10.1 million from just 425 locations. Those two films couldn’t knock The Fate of the Furious off top spot though, as the action blockbuster added another $19.4 million, to take its domestic total to $192.7 million.
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April 28th, 2017
There is only one wide release next weekend, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2. Because of that, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 26th, 2017
The Fate of the Furious is living fast, but plummeting just as fast down 64% to $158.1 million on 19,757 screens in 65 territories for totals of $745.03 million internationally and $908.34 million worldwide. The film is now the biggest hit of 2017 on the international chart and is behind only Beauty and the Beast on the 2017 worldwide chart. The film’s biggest opening of the past weekend came in Poland where it earned $2.7 million on 187 screens, which is the best opening for the Fast and the Furious franchise in that market. Its biggest market overall continues to be China, where it added $55.28 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $321.65 million. The is the second biggest box office for a Hollywood release in China, behind only Furious 7, which earned $390.87 million there.
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March 2nd, 2017
Sci-fi super hero adventure with Chris Pratt and Zoe Saldana opens May 5, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.More...
December 6th, 2016
Sci-fi adventure starring Chris Pratt and Zoe Saldana opens May 5 ... Full Movie Details.
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October 19th, 2016
Sci-fi super hero adventure with Chris Pratt and Zoe Saldana opens May 5, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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