January 17th, 2017
The are not many major releases on this week’s home market release list. The Girl on the Train is the biggest, but it is not the best. It is not even close to being the best. The race for best was mostly a two-way race between Long Way North and Ouija: Origin of Evil, with Ixcanul and Train to Busan being close behind. In the end, I went with Long Way North on Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week, but all four are worth owning.
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January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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January 2nd, 2017
The first Tuesday of the year is deceptively busy. There are a ton of romantic films being re-released on DVD, and a few on Blu-ray that I mention below, with Fandango money for Fifty Shades Darker. Most cost between $8 and $10, so if you really wanted one of these movies and were planning on buying tickets for Fifty Shades Darker, then it is a bargain. However, most of the movies that are part of this deal are not good. Strip those out of the mix and the week is really slow. The best of the week is Denial on Blu-ray, while Best and Most Beautiful Things on DVD and The Librarians: Season Two on DVD are also worth grabbing.
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December 14th, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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October 25th, 2016
2016 finally has a real reason to celebrate this weekend. Not every film topped expectations, but the top did enough to overcome any weakness at the bottom. The biggest hit of the week was Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, which beat expectations with $28.50 million. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second place with $22.87 million, which is still better than most were predicting. Ouija: Origin of Evil did well for a movie that cost just $9 million to make, but the less said about the other two new releases, the better. Overall, the box office rose 26% from last week, reaching $124 million. More importantly, the box office was 18% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 extended its lead over 2015 at $8.93 billion to $8.53 billion. Having a $400 million cushion this late in the year is good news, even with The Force Awakens looming in the future.
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October 20th, 2016
It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in.
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October 18th, 2016
The weekend box office was not good. The Accountant did beat expectations with $24.71 million, but the other wide releases missed expectations. As a result, the box office fell 6% from last weekend to $97 million. The weekend box office should never be below $100 million, outside of a few dead zones during the year. We’ve been below that mark too frequently this year. Worse still, this is 18% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a substantial lead over 2015 at $8.78 billion to $8.43 billion. However, we are nearing the $325 million mark where we have reason to panic. Remember, The Force Awakens earned $650 million during 2015 and Rogue One is only expected to earn half that much this year. We need to maintain a lead that large, or else 2016 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison in the end.
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October 16th, 2016
As expected, The Accountant will be the comfortable winner at the box office this weekend, with Warner Bros. projecting a $24.71 million debut for the thriller. That’s almost identical to the opening enjoyed by The Girl on the Train last weekend, and about average for Ben Affleck. His previous Fall outings all opened in somewhat the same vicinity: Gone Girl hit $37.5 million on opening weekend in 2014; Argo posted $19.5 million in 2012, ahead of a very fruitful box office run and eventual Best Picture award; The Town started out with $23.8 million in 2010.
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October 15th, 2016
As expected, The Accountant earned first place at the box office on Friday. However, it did better than expected with a $9.075 million opening day. This is not quite as good as The Girl on the Train managed last week, but it could have a slightly better internal multiplier. Its reviews are mixed, but its CinemaScore is solid A, and that should help its legs. On the other hand, it is aimed at a more male audience, so that will likely hurt its legs a little. I think all of these factors balance out and it will make between $24 million and $25 million.
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October 14th, 2016
The Accountant got off to a healthy start with $1.35 million during Thursday night previews. This is more than both The Girl on the Train and Gone Girl managed. On the other hand, the film’s demographics are more male-dominated than those two films, and men are more likely to rush out to see a movie as early as possible. Its reviews have climbed up to 50% positive, so that won’t hurt its legs. We predicted $19 million and I’m fairly confident in that number. In fact, that might be on the low end of expectations going forward.
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October 13th, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out this week, which is one more than expected. The Accountant is clearly the biggest of the three, but its reviews are falling into the danger zone. Kevin Hart: What Now? is hoping to be the biggest stand-up comedy movie since Eddie Murphy’s Raw. Finally there’s Max Steel, which I didn’t think was going to open truly wide. Then again, its theater count is 2,034, so it is opening barely wide. This weekend last year, Goosebumps led the way with $23.62 million. I really thought The Accountant would top that, but I no longer think that will be likely. Worse still, there were five films that earned more than $10 million last year, but there will only be three of them this week. 2016’s slump will continue.
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October 12th, 2016
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children remained the top draw internationally with $42.5 million in 75 markets for totals of $94.0 million internationally and $145.2 million worldwide. The film took top spot in Russia with an opening weekend of $6.63 million on 1,185 screens. It also earned first place in France with $5.5 million. Its biggest market overall is South Korea, where it as pulled in $14.38 million, including $4.94 million on 899 screens this past weekend.
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October 12th, 2016
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The winners of our Demon Night contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Girl on the Train opening weekend were...
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October 11th, 2016
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Over the weekend was Columbus Day, or as it is known in more and more places, Indigenous People’s Day. It’s also Thanksgiving Day up here in Canada and it would make more sense for Americans to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving than Columbus Day. Canadian Thanksgiving is where you give thanks to all the Canadians that make your life better. For example, both Ryan Gosling and Ryan Reynolds are Canadian. Anyhoo... The weekend box office numbers were not buoyed by the semi-holiday on Monday as none of the new releases matched expectations. The Girl on the Train led the way by a wide margin with $24.54 million compared to $15.14 million for Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. Neither The Birth of a Nation nor Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life made it into the top five. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend dropping to $103 million. That was 13% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $8.64 billion, putting it 4.4% / $370 million ahead of 2015. A couple of more weeks like this and we will have reason to hit the panic button.
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October 9th, 2016
New releases are battling headwinds to make progress at the box office this weekend. The current political frenzy, and the lingering effects of Hurricane Matthew have both dragged down ticket sales, but one film has come out relatively unscathed. Going into the weekend, we had The Girl on the Train pegged at a $27 million opening. In the event, it will start with $24.7 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. Things are less rosy for the other two debutants.
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October 8th, 2016
As expected, The Girl on the Train led the way on Friday, albeit with a slightly smaller-than-expected figure of $9.35 million. This is a little more disappointing after the film’s previews, especially since films aimed at more mature women tend to have longer than average legs. We knew the reviews were not good and that wouldn’t help the film; however, the audience reaction was even worse, as the film earned a B- from CinemaScore. Anything below a B+ usually results in weak legs, and we are already seeing The Girl on the Train struggle in that regard. We originally predicted $27 million, but I think $26 million is now more likely. That’s not a bad opening weekend for a movie that cost $45 million to make, so Universal should still be happy. We also can’t be sure how much effect Hurricane Matthew had on the opening day, so business could yet pick up as the storm passes.
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October 7th, 2016
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The Girl on the Train got off to a good start with $1.23 million during its previews last night. This is essentially the same as Gone Girl managed during its previews back in 2014. Gone Girl earned a reported $1.2 million, so it could have been between $1.15 million to $1.24 million. Unfortunately for The Girl on the Train, Gone Girl’s reviews were stellar, while this film is earning mixed reviews. It won’t have the same legs, but this start does mean $30 million is a lot more likely than it was on Thursday’s predictions.
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October 6th, 2016
October begins with a trio of wide releases, led by The Girl on the Train. The film’s reviews are mixed, which is not ideal, but also not fatal. The Birth of a Nation was looking to become an Awards Season player, but its reviews are not quite at that level. Finally there’s Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. There are still no reviews and the buzz is as quiet as you can get for a wide release. This weekend last year, the only wide release was Pan and it bombed hard. However, The Martian remained on top with $37.01 million over the weekend. There’s almost no way The Girl on the Train will match that and last year had better depth as well. 2016’s slump will continue.
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October 5th, 2016
The winners of our Dark Urges contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Deepwater Horizon opening weekend were...
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October 1st, 2016
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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September 30th, 2016
I’m fairly certain The Girl on the Train will top the chart next weekend, as neither The Birth of a Nation nor Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life are expected to be anything more than midlevel hits. Because of that, The Girl on the Train is the obvious choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Girl on the Train.
I was planning on starting the Trick or Treat contests this week; however, that plan lasted about 24 hours, as I checked my mail and found five copies of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray. I will be reviewing one and over the next two weeks I will be giving away the other four. The Neon Demon is technically a psychological horror movie, so it fits with the Halloween theme.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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