August 16th, 2016
There are a lot of releases on this week’s list, but most of them are like The Angry Birds Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Combo Pack. They are good, but not good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. The best new release is The Fits, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand.
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July 27th, 2016
It’s a rather shallow week on the home market with the biggest release being Batman: The Killing Joke, which is a hot mess. More on that below. As for the best new release of the week, there are a handful of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, including Barbershop: The Next Cut, Deadline U.S.A., and Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXVI. In the end, I picked Sing Street on Blu-ray for that title.
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April 12th, 2016
The Boss was a little better than anticipated and that helped it overtake Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice during its opening weekend. The fact that BvS couldn't get first place three weekends in a row despite the lack of top-tier competition is really bad news. It's not the only film struggling at the box office, as Hardcore Henry missed the Mendoza Line during its opening. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $105 million. It was also down 20% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $2.99 billion, but its lead over 2015 has shrunk to 8.0% or $220 million. That's still a good figure, one that should grow next weekend when The Jungle Book opens.
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April 6th, 2016
The winners of our Look Alive contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for God's Not Dead 2 opening weekend were...
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April 5th, 2016
As anticipated, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it had the worst sophomore stint decline of any major super hero movie, plummeting to just $51.34 million. God's Not Dead 2 only managed fourth place over the weekend with $7.62 million,which is a worse opening than the original managed. Overall, the box office fell 48% from last weekend, pulling in $132 million. The decline from last year was almost as big at 41%; however, there was a misalignment in the Easter holiday and Easter 2016 out-grossed Easter 2015 by 13%. I'm going to call that a victory. Year-to-date, 2016 still leads 2015 by a significant margin at $2.85 billion to $2.52 billion.
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April 3rd, 2016
Last weekend, Batman v Superman posted the 7th-biggest opening weekend of all time. This weekend, if Sunday’s estimate proves to be accurate, it will record the 27th-biggest 2nd weekend. That stat tells you most of what you need to know about the film’s box office performance: it hit big at the beginning, but is proving to have very little staying power. Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection for the weekend is $52.385 million, down 68% from last weekend, for a total of $261.5 million to date. With $419.8 million overseas so far, the film is well on its way to $700 million worldwide, and should make about $900 million in total. That’s certainly short of what the studio was hoping for—the consensus was that the film needed $1 billion globally to make a profit—but surely enough to keep their plans for the franchise on track for now.
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April 2nd, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is officially in trouble after falling 81% on the Friday over Friday comparison. It only managed $15.35 million at the box office yesterday, which is 5.4% less than Deadpool earned during its second Friday of its release. Granted, BvS still has a nearly $30 million lead over Deadpool after 8 days of release, but unless it bounces back on Saturday, that lead isn't safe. Look for between $50 million and $51 million over the weekend. Also look out for panicked Warner Bros. executives and possible rescheduling of some of the D.C. Extended Universe upcoming releases.
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April 1st, 2016
God's Not Dead 2 started its box office run with $400,000 during its Thursday previews. This is a little lower than Risen ($425,000) and The Young Messiah ($475,000), but faith-based films are unpredictable enough that we can't use this result to make any clear predictions going forward. Perhaps predictions were a little generous and $11 million is more likely. We will know by this time tomorrow.
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April 1st, 2016
This is going to be a short prediction column, because a computer crash meant I had to redo the entire monthly preview in one day. Not been a fun day. Fortunately, there's only one new wide release, God's Not Dead 2, so there's not a lot to talk about. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will remain in first place, but all eyes will be on its sophomore stint drop-off. This weekend last year, Furious 7 debuted with $147 million. There's no chance the total box office will top that this year, so 2016 will get pummeled in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 1st, 2016
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March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad.
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March 30th, 2016
The winners of our Prediction v Prediction contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opening weekend were...
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March 25th, 2016
At one time, there were three films scheduled to open wide next week. However, Collide has been pushed back to the fall and Amityville: The Awakening's release has been pushed back to January of next year. This leaves only one real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. ... oh no! God's Not Dead 2, a faith-based film. Faith-based films are notoriously difficult to predict, so entrants will have a difficult time getting this right. On the other hand, it means you could use a random number generator and have just as good of a shot of winning as someone who spends the next seven days researching the film. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for God's Not Dead 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Casual: Season One on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Casual: Season One on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a copy of Casual: Season One on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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