January 17th, 2013
There were a quartet of new releases to reach the December 2nd edition of the DVD sales chart, but none of them were able to challenge for top spot. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax and Brave were in a battle for first place with the former winning if you go by units at 637,000 to 584,000. However, the latter wins in terms of revenue at $11.65 million to $8.09 million. Brave is still a little behind in terms of total units at 4.33 million to 4.75 million; however, after just three weeks of release, it has overtaken The Lorax's 17-week total revenue at $73.45 million to $72.32 million.
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January 16th, 2013
There were not many new releases to reach the top 30 on the November 25th edition of the DVD sales chart. This is not a surprise, as it was the Thanksgiving Sales weekend and holdovers tend to dominate the chart. Brave remained in top spot with 1.59 million units / $27.28 million during its second week of release. At this point, it had sold 3.75 million units and generated $61.79 million, which was enough for sixth place for 2012.
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September 7th, 2012
The Hunger Games dominated the Blu-ray Sales Chart during its first full week on the home market. It saw its sales numbers grow a little bit to 1.75 million units / $34.99 million for the week giving it totals of 3.42 million units / $68.32 million. It is already in the top ten best-selling Blu-rays of all time and the best-selling Blu-ray of the year. It likely won't last in first place for long, as The Avengers is coming out soon and should be record-breaking on Blu-ray.
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September 5th, 2012
Depending on how you look at things, there were more than ten new releases to reach the top 30 on the DVD Sales Chart. One of the confusing "new" releases is The Hunger Games, which spent its first full week on the home market, but came out a few days before Tuesday. It sold 2.50 million units and generated $42.48 million during its first full week of release, for totals of 4.68 million units / $79.46 million and it is already the second best selling DVD of 2012 and should be in first place very shortly. I was amazed that the film actually sold more this week than it did last week, even with its shortened opening week. After all, Breaking Dawn, Part 1 also opened with a shortened week, but fell nearly 40% during its first full week of release. Clearly this movie has much better word-of-mouth.
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August 29th, 2012
The short sales week didn't stop The Hunger Games from earning first place on the Blu-ray Sales Chart. It led all new releases with 1.67 million units / $33.33 million over two days. This is more than I thought it would sell and puts it in the top ten all time openings on Blu-ray. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 43%, which is a little low for a major blockbuster, but it was aimed more at women, who don't buy as many Blu-rays as men do.
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August 29th, 2012
Despite being out for only two days, The Hunger Games was the best new release and crushed the competition on the DVD sales chart. It sold 2.18 million units while generated $36.97 million, again, in just two days. Its opening was not quite as strong as Breaking Dawn, Part 1's debut was earlier this year, at least not on DVD, but it performed better on Blu-ray.
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August 22nd, 2012
Doctor Seuss' The Lorax was the first new release to top the Blu-ray Sales Chart in a while. It sold 1.73 million units and generated $34.65 million in revenue. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 47%, which is outstanding for a kids movie. In fact, it generated more revenue from Blu-ray than it did from DVD, so it is clear Blu-ray has taken over the mainstream market. Granted, some types of releases, like dramas, live action kids movies, documentaries, TV shows, etc. still sell much better on DVD than they do on Blu-ray, but those days could be numbered as well.
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August 22nd, 2012
Doctor Seuss' The Lorax led the new releases earning first place on the DVD sales chart. It sold 1.96 million units and generated $33.38 million in revenue. It is already the sixth best selling DVD for 2012.
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August 7th, 2012
This is not a really slow week on the home market this week, as we have The Lorax coming out, and it was the highest-grossing animated film of the year, until Brave overtook is very recently, so it should be a big seller on the home market. Unfortunately, it is the only major release of the week. There are some other releases worth checking out, a few worth picking up, but very few that are contenders for Pick of the Week. High Fidelity is a great movie, but its Blu-ray debut is Shovelware. Personally, I think Spaceballs is really underrated, but this is not the first time it has been released on Blu-ray and double-dips are rarely Pick of the Week material. In the end, I'm going with My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic: Royal Pony Wedding, because I liked the first DVD release more than I thought I would.
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August 7th, 2012
The Lorax is the fourth Dr. Seuss book adapted to a feature-length movie. I haven't seen all of the rest (I only saw enough of The Cat in the Hat to know I didn't want to finish watching it) but I did like Horton Hears A Who. Will this film live up to that one? And is it worth buying? And is it worth paying extra for the 3D?
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August 2nd, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises overall numbers are still limited to studio estimates, but it was clearly the best film of the weekend with $126.2 million on 17,200 screens in 57 markets for a total of $252.0 million internationally and $539.1 million worldwide. Its best new market was France, where it made $10.91 million on 892 screens. It also dominated the box office in Mexico with $9.75 million on 2,765 screens and in Germany with $9.40 million on 718 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.40 million. Russia was close behind with $8.33 million on 1,312 screens. The film also earned first place in Brazil, but with $6.70 million on 944, which is a little more subdued, while it missed top spot in Japan with $4.76 million on 546 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.82 million. The film remained in first place in the U.K. with $11.42 million on 589 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $47.96 million. It also remained champion in Australia with $7.77 million on 628 screens over the weekend for a total of $28.00 million after two. On the other hand, it was pushed into second place in South Korea with $5.93 million on 807 screens over the weekend for a total of $27.67 million after two. So far, The Dark Knight Rises has been about on par with Ice Age: Continental Drift, maybe a little behind that film's pace, and it is on track to earn close to $600 million internationally and about $1 billion worldwide. This is a fantastic result, but still below expectations.
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April 16th, 2012
The overall box office went about as well as expected over the weekend; however, that's not particularly good news, as expectations were low to begin with. The Hunger Games remained on top of the box office for the fourth time, making it the first film since Avatar to accomplish that feat. However, there wasn't a lot of celebrate over the weekend, as the box office fell 8% from last weekend to $114 million. More importantly, this was 12% lower than the same weekend last year, making this the worst year-over-year decline of 2012. That said, 2012 still has a massive lead on 2011 up $2.98 billion to $2.50 billion and if the summer is as good as the first part of the year was, that lead will be even greater by the time the Fall rolls around.
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April 11th, 2012
Wrath of the Titans is really struggling domestically, but it could mitigate some of the losses here with its box office numbers internationally. This weekend it added $42.1 million on 13,070 screens in 61 markets for a total of $151.6 million. Its best market of the weekend was Russia, where it earned $4.09 million on 1,116 screens over the weekend for a total of $19.55 million after two. It has yet to open in Japan, and if it can get to $300 million worldwide, it should break even very early in the film's home market run.
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April 5th, 2012
In a reversal of what happened domestically, Wrath of the Titans won the race on the international chart with an estimated $78 million in 60 markets. This includes some powerhouse results, like $12.66 million on 1,164 screens in Russia, which is more than The Hunger Games has made in two weeks. However, Russia tends to reward fantasy films over most other genres. It also did very well in Mexico ($5.09 million on 1,494 screens) and in Brazil ($4.05 million on 517). On the other hand, it struggled in the U.K. placing second with $3.52 million 466 screens. That's a weaker opening than it had here, given the relative size of the two markets. With a production budget of $150 million, it will likely need close to $400 million to break even before the home market. Anything more than $300 million will be enough to cover expenses, eventually, but probably won't be enough to greenlight a third installment in the franchise.
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April 2nd, 2012
Despite falling a little bit further than expected, The Hunger Games easily won the race for top spot in the box office this weekend. Wrath of the Titans and Mirror Mirror couldn't compensate for the number one film's decline and the overall box office fell 31% to $149 million. However, and more importantly, the box office was up 19% when compared to last year. Year-to-date, 2012 has expanded its lead to 20% at $2.62 billion to $2.18 billion after three months.
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March 30th, 2012
There are two saturation level releases coming out this week, Wrath of the Titans and Mirror Mirror. Even so, there's a 99% likelihood that The Hunger Games will repeat on the top of the chart. Wrath of the Titans would have to nearly double its average prediction and / or The Hunger Games would have to collapse by a near record amount for there to be a new number one this weekend. Additionally, unless there's some catastrophic event that keeps people away from theaters nationwide, the overall box office should see massive growth from last year. In fact, even without The Hunger Games, there could be some growth from last year, as most analysts expect the two new releases from this year to be stronger than the three new releases from last year. The only downside is the lack of depth. John Carter should place sixth with $2 million over the weekend, but that wouldn't even be enough for a top ten finish last year.
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March 26th, 2012
The buzz surrounding The Hunger Games became nearly deafening by the time it opened. There were some concerns that the film couldn't possible live up to the hype. However, not only did it live up to the hype, it crushed expectations and set records. Overall the box office pulled in $214 million, which is the ninth best combined weekend total and the best non-Holiday season weekend (Summer blockbuster season and the Thanksgiving to New Years holiday run). This was 93% higher than last weekend and 76% higher than the same weekend last year. Needless to say, 2012 stretched its lead over 2011, and it now sits 19% ahead of last year's pace at $2.41 billion to $2.02 billion. This is behind 2010's running tally of $2.69 billion, but ahead of 2009, which had $2.38 billion at this point of the year, so while we are not quite on a record-breaking pace, it has been a very good year so far.
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March 22nd, 2012
At the beginning of the month, most people were expecting The Hunger Games to have one of the biggest openings of March and one of the all-time biggest openings for a non-sequel film. However, that's changed... for the better. Instead of analysts predicting $70 million to $80 million over its opening weekend, expectations have grown to the point where it could earn over $100 million over the next three days and still be considered a disappointment. In fact, there are many who are predicting The Hunger Games will make more by itself than the entire industry made last year. Needless to say, if that happened, 2012 will make up for last week's 3.6% year-over-year decline in a huge way.
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March 21st, 2012
John Carter's international run is heavenly, at least compared to its domestic run. It's weak compared to its production budget. This weekend it added $40.7 million in 54 markets for a total of $126.10 million. It opened huge in China with $10.4 million, while it held on reasonably well in Russia earning $6.60 million on 939 screens over the weekend for a total of $26.10 million after two. At this pace, getting to $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide might be difficult. And that would be the minimum needed to save face.
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March 19th, 2012
2012's winning streak finally came to a close, but it was close. Overall the total box office was $111 million, which was 17% lower than last week and more importantly, down 3.6% compared to the same weekend last year. 21 Jump Street did hold up its end of the box office numbers, but since the only other new release in the top ten was Casa di me Padre, is wasn't enough. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011's pace by 16% at $2.16 billion to $1.87 billion. That lead will grow next weekend with the release of The Hunger Games, which could be record-breaking at the box office and is just as strong with critics.
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March 18th, 2012
The industry will enjoy another solid weekend at the box office thanks to a healthy debut by 21 Jump Street, which will ride very positive reviews to about $35 million, according to Sony's Sunday estimate. Unfortunately, that probably won't be quite enough to give 2012 another win over 2011 -- somewhat surprisingly, because Limitless topped the chart last year with only $18.9 million, but the five movies that topped $10 million compared to three this year gives last year the edge.
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March 15th, 2012
So far 2012 has brought hit after hit, but what has been lost in the box office success is the dearth of quality releases. Last weekend, there wasn't a single film in the top ten to earn overall positive reviews. (Although Doctor Seuss' The Lorax is very close to that level.) Fortunately that will change this weekend as 21 Jump Street is earning unbelievably positive reviews. It is the only wide release of the week, compared to three wide releases last year. On the other hand, the best of last year's crop, Limitless, opened with less than $20 million and all but the most pessimistic think 21 Jump Street will top that with ease and if the holdovers can hold on, we could see yet another win at the box office.
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March 13th, 2012
Footnote led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $23,764 in two theaters, while Jiro Dreams of Sushi was right behind with an average of $21,018, also in two theaters. Salmon Fishing in the Yemen was playing in a lot more theaters, but it managed an average of $12,550 in 18 theaters. Even more impressively, it saw growth from Friday to Sunday of 85%, which is amazing for a new release. This bodes very well for its long term potential. Finally, the overall box office leader, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $10,370.
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March 12th, 2012
As expected, Doctor Seuss' The Lorax led the way at the box office, but unfortunately, it was on the low end of expectations. Unfortunately, while John Carter did land on the high end of expectations, it really wasn't able to pick up the slack. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last week to $133 million. This was higher than the same weekend last year, but by only 3%. At least the streak is still intact and has now reached ten weeks. Year-to-date, 2012 has reached $2 billion and is now ahead of 2011 by 18% at $2.01 billion to $1.70 billion. Let's hope next week is just as lucrative.
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March 11th, 2012
Although John Carter's opening won't be as bad as the direst predictions, an anemic $30.6 million debut will condemn the film to the record books for all the wrong reasons and (in spite of good international numbers) almost certainly cause a write-down for Disney. Or more immediate embarrassment, the film will fail to win the weekend, coming in second to The Lorax, which is set to post $39.1 million in its second weekend, according to Universal's estimate. That combination of two $30 million plus films will give 2012 another weekend win over last year.
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March 10th, 2012
The winners of our Don't Give Up Contests for Lent contest were determined and they are...
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March 8th, 2012
Three films open wide release this week, but none of them look like they will compete with the Doctor Seuss' The Lorax for top spot. John Carter is the only one with a real shot at first place, but there's a chance it won't make half as much as The Lorax does over the next three days. Silent House is the best-reviewed new release of the week, and if it can remain above 60% positive, it will be the only film in the top ten with overall positive reviews. Finally there's A Thousand Words, but the less said about that film, the better. (It's opening in under 2,000 theaters with zero positive reviews.) Last year Battle: Los Angeles opened in first place with $35 million, a figure The Lorax should top, while the rest of the top ten look about same this year as last. The winning streak should continue.
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March 7th, 2012
Dr. Seuss' The Lorax was surprisingly strong during its opening and that helped it win the race on top of the per theater chart with an average of $18,830. The only other two films in the $10,000 club, Being Flynn and Boy, were neck-and-neck at $10,998 and $10,622 respectively.
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March 5th, 2012
Nearly everyone expected Doctor Seuss' The Lorax to top the box office chart this weekend, but very few people saw it doing this well. It opened so well that The Hunger Games could have trouble topping it for biggest hit of the month. The overall box office rose to $168 million, which was 26% above last week's pace, as well as the same weekend last year. And here I was worried the streak might end. Year-to-date, 2012 has now pulled in $1.82 million, which is 19% higher than last year's pace. Hopefully this winning streak will continue, and it will if The Lorax has strong legs.
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March 2nd, 2012
March begins with two wide releases, although there's no real suspense which one will lead the way at the box office. Doctor Seuss' The Lorax should have no trouble earning first place. The real question is whether or not it will top Rango, which opened with $38 million last year. Not everyone is convinced it will. The only other wide release is Project X, which has a range of expectations going from the low teens to the mid-twenties. If both films land in the high end of expectations, then 2012 should continue its winning streak, as this year has slightly better depth than last year.
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March 1st, 2012
February continued 2012's winning streak, which has now reached eight weeks. Will that streak continue in March? I'm not sure it will. There are some very good signs. For instance, last March, only one film reached $100 million, Rango, while there were a couple others that cracked $75 million, Battle: Los Angeles and Limitless. Plus the final weekend of this month lines up with the first weekend of April last year, which also had a $100 million hit, Hop. This time around, things look a whole lot better at the top with a potential $200 million hit, The Hunger Games, and two more that should hit the century mark, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, and Wrath of the Titans. Plus a couple others, 21 Jump Street and John Carter of Mars, that could top $75 million. However, there are a few weeks that look soft when compared with last year. I suspect The Hunger Games will be such a huge hit that overall March 2012 will perform better than March 2011, but I also think there will be a couple weeks of year-over-year declines. On the plus side, very few films feel like filler; in fact, there are very few films, period. Over the next five weekends, only nine films are opening wide, which is odd for this time of year. In fact, it would be slow for the heart of summer, when most weeks have a blockbuster and one counter-programming film. Will this help the overall box office, as no films will be squeezed out? Or will the lack of choices hurt the box office? We will soon find out, but I remain cautiously optimistic.
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February 23rd, 2012
Lent has begun, I think, so we have an Easter DVD to give away as part of our box office prediction contest. As for the target film, The Lorax is the only film opening next week that has a chance at first place. In fact, it might make more money during its opening weekend than Project X will make in total. Because of this, The Lorax is really the only choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction Contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Lorax.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Dora the Explorer: Dora's Easter Adventure on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Nickelodeon Favorites: Dance to the Music on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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