February 24th, 2013
Independent Spirit Award were handed out yesterday and while the average moviegoer will be more focused on the Oscars tonight, a lot of great films were honored yesterday. This includes Silver Linings Playbook, which took home numerous awards, including the top prizes.
The categories and winners are...
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December 13th, 2012
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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December 9th, 2012
It was a soft week for new releases on the DVD sales chart and the holdovers were not a lot of help. The Amazing Spider-Man did earn first place, but with an unimpressive opening of 536,000 units / $9.62 million. There are two mitigating factors here. Firstly, the film will likely perform much better on Blu-ray. Secondly, it was released on Friday, so it had a shortened opening week.
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December 4th, 2012
Tinker Bell: Secret of the Wings held off the new releases, all two of them, earning first place on the DVD sales chart with 360,000 units / $7.19 million for the week for totals of 1.12 million units / $20.04 million after two. Selling 1 million units is an impressive feat for a direct-to-DVD release.
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November 28th, 2012
The Independent Spirit Awards has a special place in the Awards Season. The nominations are the unoffficial start of Awards Season, but the actual awards aren't given out until Oscar weekend, so they are the beginning at the end of Awards Season. They also help out a lot of limited releases that would otherwise not get enough buzz, although they are not so good at predicting Oscar wins. This year, two films tied for most nominations, Moonrise Kingdom and The Silver Linings Playbook, both of which earned five nominations. They weren't the only films to earn multiple nominations though.
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November 15th, 2012
Tinker Bell: Secret of the Wings was one of six new releases to reach the top 11 on the Blu-ray sales chart this week. It was surprisingly strong for a direct-to-DVD release aimed at kids selling 424,000 units and generating $12.10 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 36%.
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November 14th, 2012
Tinker Bell: Secret of the Wings continues the franchise's impressive run on the home market leading all new releases earning first place on the DVD sales chart. It sold 756,000 units and generated $12.85 million in opening week sales. This is amazing for a direct-to-DVD release.
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November 5th, 2012
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted was one of seven new releases to reach the top 20 on this week's Blu-ray sales chart. It took first place with 768,000 units / $15.36 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 45%. This is good for a digitally animated kids movie. In fact, this wouldn't be bad if it were an action film.
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October 23rd, 2012
There are not a lot of major releases on this week's list. The biggest box office hit was Magic Mike, which did cross $100 million, but I'm not sure its target audience is going to support it on DVD and especially not on Blu-ray Combo Pack. According to Amazon.com, Tinker Bell: Secret of the Wings is the best selling new release, and the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 3D Combo Pack are selling very well. However, while that film is absolutely worth picking up, the Pick of the Week goes to The Invisible War on DVD. It could be an Oscar winner next year.
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August 9th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy should have no trouble dominating the box office this weekend and it might become the last $100 million hit of the summer. On the other hand, it might not be the only $100 million hit opening this week. The Campaign is an R-rated comedy, which should do better than most and at least has an outside shot at reaching the century club. Hope Springs is counter-programming aimed at a more mature target demographic and its chances over the weekend are not great, but its legs could be strong. Finally, there's Nitro Circus: The Movie 3D, which is only playing in about 800 theaters, but it could squeeze into the top ten. This week last year the new releases were led by The Help while a returning film, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, topped the chart. Neither film made $30 million over the weekend, which is something The Bourne Legacy should do with ease, so 2012 should pull out a win. Hopefully that is the case, because year-over-year, 2012 has been losing big time lately.
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August 2nd, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises overall numbers are still limited to studio estimates, but it was clearly the best film of the weekend with $126.2 million on 17,200 screens in 57 markets for a total of $252.0 million internationally and $539.1 million worldwide. Its best new market was France, where it made $10.91 million on 892 screens. It also dominated the box office in Mexico with $9.75 million on 2,765 screens and in Germany with $9.40 million on 718 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.40 million. Russia was close behind with $8.33 million on 1,312 screens. The film also earned first place in Brazil, but with $6.70 million on 944, which is a little more subdued, while it missed top spot in Japan with $4.76 million on 546 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.82 million. The film remained in first place in the U.K. with $11.42 million on 589 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $47.96 million. It also remained champion in Australia with $7.77 million on 628 screens over the weekend for a total of $28.00 million after two. On the other hand, it was pushed into second place in South Korea with $5.93 million on 807 screens over the weekend for a total of $27.67 million after two. So far, The Dark Knight Rises has been about on par with Ice Age: Continental Drift, maybe a little behind that film's pace, and it is on track to earn close to $600 million internationally and about $1 billion worldwide. This is a fantastic result, but still below expectations.
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July 23rd, 2012
There was tragedy over the weekend at a midnight showing of The Dark Knight Rises, which is clearly a more important story than any box office numbers. However, we try to avoid politics here, and try to stick with the numbers, but the two stories might be hard to untangle. As expected, The Dark Knight Rises led the box office, but with a more subdued opening. It failed to match The Avengers's opening from earlier in the summer, but was the biggest from the franchise. It helped propel the overall box office to $230 million, which was 39% higher than last weekend and 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 now leads 2011 by 6.7% at $6.37 billion to $5.96 billion.
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July 19th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises looks to crush the competition at the box office this weekend. No one is wondering if it will be the number one film this weekend. People are wondering if it will have the number one opening of all time. At the beginning the year, I would have put the odds of that happening at about 80%. However, after The Avengers opened with more than $200 million, the chance of The Dark Knight Rises breaking that record is now very slim. It has a better shot at earning more than the entire box office this weekend last year, or about $191 million. The odds of 2012 winning in the year-over-year comparison is nearly 100%.
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July 16th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift opened on the low end of expectations. The rest of the top five did better than predicted, but that wasn't enough to compensate and the overall box office fell 16% from last weekend to $165 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, and less than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II opened with. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, even if the margin is down to 6.6% at $6.05 billion to $5.68 million. The box office should bounce back next weekend with the release of The Dark Knight Rises.
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July 12th, 2012
This weekend, Ice Age: Continental Drift has the weekend to itself, at least as far as new wide releases goes. It will still have to deal with holdovers, but The Amazing Spider-Man will likely be in a distant second place. Last year, the number one release was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, which opened with a then record $169.19 million. Ice Age won't match that. In fact, there's a chance Ice Age won't make that much during its entire run. 2012 box office is going to take a tumble this weekend.
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July 9th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man started faster than expected, but stumbled a little bit over the weekend. Additionally, the other two wide releases, Savages and Katy Perry: Part of Me, were mixed and weak respectively. This left the overall box office down 6.5% from last weekend to $196 million. However, this was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. 2012 increased its lead over 2011 to 8% at $5.78 billion to $5.36 billion, so even if the rest of the year is completely flat compared to last year, it would still be a solid win.
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July 5th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man opened on Tuesday to better than expected numbers and should cruise to victory over the weekend, but it is not the only wide release this week. Katy Perry: Part of Me opens tonight while Savages opens tomorrow. They are not going to compete for top spot. In fact, very few people think they will compete with last week's winner, Ted, for second place and one or both could miss the top five entirely. Fortunately, the combined strength of the new releases, plus healthy holdovers, should help 2012 easily win over last year.
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July 4th, 2012
Beasts of the Southern Wild was the latest limited release to have a monster start on the per theater chart. It earned $170,000 in four theaters for an average of $42,426. To Rome With Love was pushed into second place with an average of $23,872 in 29 theaters. Up next was a trio of wide releases starting with Ted with $16,800. Magic Mike and Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection were close behind with $13,354 and $11,749. It's rare for three wide releases to reach the $10,000 mark on the per theater chart.
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July 2nd, 2012
The box office wasn't as close a race as some had predicted, as Ted ran away with things breaking records in the process. That's not to say the competition was weak. Both Magic Mike and Tyler Perry's Madeas Witness Protection beat expectations and this helped the overall box office grow 61% from last weekend. It also grew 4% from last year, which normally wouldn't seem like a big deal, but this weekend last year was the Independence Day long weekend. For 2012 to win despite the misalignment is amazing and hopefully this is a good sign for the coming weeks. Year-to-date, 2012 still holds a solid lead over 2011, $5.43 billion to $5.06 billion. Percentwise the lead is now 7%, which is a great position to be in at the halfway mark of the year.
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July 1st, 2012
A huge opening for Ted and better-than-expected starts for both Magic Mike and Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection will add up to an impressive weekend for the industry, based on Sunday's studio estimates. Even with a tough comparison (July 4 fell on a Monday last year), the total for this weekend should be about on par with the same weekend last year.
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June 28th, 2012
There are three new releases and a holdover looking to battle for top spot over the weekend. Magic Mike will likely be the best of the new releases, but Ted could be close behind. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection is a wild card and could earn first or could struggle to reach $20 million. The only one of the four new releases that will not have a shot at first place is People Like Us, which at its lowest might not reach the top ten. Brave will also be in the race for first place and many believe it has the advantage over the newcomers. As for the year-over-year comparison, forget about it. This weekend last year was the Independence Day long weekend and the misalignment will result in 2012 taking a beating. In fact, the combined openings of the four wide releases will likely not be as much as Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened with last year. June is going to end on a really soft note, but July should start strong due to the same holiday misalignment.
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June 22nd, 2012
Next weekend there are four films opening wide and I really have no idea which one will be the best. (I'm pretty sure Brave will remain in first place.) People Like Us is earning great early reviews, but it is the film mostly likely to slip between the cracks. Madea's Witness Protection is opening in just 2000 theaters, more or less, but his fans will come out regardless. That said, his recent box office numbers are down, so perhaps his fans have moved on. Magic Mike could be a surprise hit, but a film about male strippers could alienate moviegoers. Ted is the latest R-rated comedy to come out this summer, but while there were a string of hits in the past, this year the genre has struggled. This could mean moviegoers are waiting for one that looks good. Or it could mean we passed the point of saturation. Madea, Mike, and Ted have roughly the same chance to be the best of the new releases, but we are going with Ted as the target film for this week's box office prediction contest, because it has the largest early theater count estimate. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ted.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Louie: Season Two on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Louie: Season Two on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2012
As May ends and we look forward to June, we have some good news and some bad news to report from last month. First the bad news. Nearly every film missed expectations, sometimes by massive levels. The good news? The Avengers was a record-breaking hit and it managed to compensate for every miss of the month and May of 2012 was just as strong as May of 2011. Unfortunately, the month has ended on a low note and The Avengers is shedding theaters, so new releases will be really important for June's chances. There are two films that were supposed to open wide this month that are no longer doing so, although we did have one film moved up to replace G.I. Joe: Retaliation, but that still leaves just twelve films opening wide over the five weekends in June. This does include six films that have a real shot at earning $100 million or more at the box office, and three of those have a shot at $200 million. Prometheus is earning a ton of buzz and there are some that think it will be the biggest hit of the month. It might even be a $300 million hit. However, you can't count out Brave in the race to become the biggest hit of the month, as Pixar's average is over $250 million and $300 million is also not out of the question. It's hard to compare last June, because there were only four weekends last June, and Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened on the Wednesday before the July 1st long weekend, which throws off the numbers. If you consider Dark of the Moon a June release, then there were six $100 million movies and one $300 million this month last year. We will need nearly every film to match expectations in order for 2012 to continue to strengthen its lead on 2011.
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