February 23rd, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. This year there were nine nominees, but not all of them really have a shot at winning. (One of the nominations generated more outrage than anything else.) Is there a favorite? And are there any that have a legitimate shot at the upset?
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February 22nd, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Adapted Screenplay. This is not a particularly close race with one obvious favorite and a couple that are long shots with a shot.
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February 16th, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, and up next is Best Actor. This category is actually competitive with two actors in a relatively close race for the top.
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February 15th, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, and up next is Best Supporting Actor. This category is only slightly more competitive than Best Supporting Actress with almost all the evidence pointing to one winner.
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February 8th, 2012
There was no competition on the Blu-ray sales chart, as Real Steel topped all new releases and holdovers by a healthy margin. It sold 799,000 units and generated $22.36 million in sales giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 54%. Hopefully we will see a lot more films crack 50% as the winter blockbusters start to come out.
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February 8th, 2012
This was not a deep week for new releases, as only two of them cracked the top 30. (One major new release was only released as a Blu-ray / DVD combo pack, so we will get to those numbers shortly.) We did have a new number one on the DVD sales chart, as Real Steel sold 691,000 units and generated $12.03 million in revenue. This is not a great start, but it performed better on Blu-ray.
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January 31st, 2012
January is typically a really bad month for the home market, and it is usually even worse for Blu-ray. Not only are there not many hits coming out, but those that are being released tend to be films that are better suited to DVD than Blu-ray (middling hits, dramas, etc.). This is certainly the case with this week's new releases. Leading the way on the Blu-ray sales chart was Ides of March, a political drama, with 116,000 units / $2.08 million. Its opening Blu-ray share was 39%, which is better than expected for the genre.
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January 31st, 2012
It was a mixed week on the home market as far as new releases were concerned. On the one hand, four of the top five spots on the DVD sales chart were new releases. On the other hand, they were the only new releases to reach the top 30. Courageous was the best of the bunch selling 381,000 units and generating $6.47 million in opening week sales.
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January 25th, 2012
Like it was on the DVD sales chart, there were three new releases to top the Blu-ray sales chart, although they finished in a slightly different order. Moneyball still led the way with 467,000 units / $9.74 million giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 44%, which is excellent for a drama.
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January 24th, 2012
Moneyball led all new releases and the overall DVD sales chart with 601,000 units / $10.22 million during its first week of release.
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January 24th, 2012
Yesterday was one of the biggest days during Awards Season as The Oscar nominations were announced in the morning. It was a two horse race for top spot as far as the big winners are concerned. Hugo earned the most nominations with eleven, while The Artist was right behind with ten. However, one could argue The Artist is the bigger winner, as more of its nominations were in the more prestigious categories.
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January 24th, 2012
There are three first run releases of note this week, including an Awards Season player, 50/50; the latest installment in a perennial horror franchise, Paranormal Activity 3; and big budget family film, Real Steel. Of those three, 50/50 is the best and a contender for Pick of the Week. Other contenders include Godzilla: The Criterion Collection on Blu-ray and Wings on Blu-ray. However, I'm going with a late arrival: Moneyball on Blu-ray / DVD Combo Pack.
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January 21st, 2012
Moneyball opened in September, which is a terrible time of year to release a film, no matter what the studio is hoping for. It's the beginning of the school year, so the box office numbers will be weak, plus it is far too early for Awards Season. At least that's the case most years. Most September releases are terrible and usually more wide releases debuting during the month will have Tomatometer Scores that are below 20% positive than have overall positive scores. Strangely, this year there were four September releases that have gone on to earn nominations from at least one major awards committee. Moneyball has been leading that group (Warrior, Drive, and 50/50 are the other three) but will I add my voice to the choir singing the film's praise? Or will I be part of the minority of critics that were not drawn into the story?
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January 19th, 2012
The Blu-ray sales chart was both busy and slow this week. On the one hand, there were five new releases that charted this week, including three in the top ten. On the other hand, only one of those new releases, Contagion, did any significant business. It was able to sell 274,000 units while generating $4.93 million in revenue, giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 40%. That's a very good share for a drama, but its overall home market run is disappointing.
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January 9th, 2012
It's a pretty good week on the home market, for this time of year, with a number of releases that are worth checking out. This includes big budget releases, like Moneyball on Blu-ray Combo Pack, as well as TV on DVD releases like Doctor Who: Story 71: Invasion of the Dinosaurs and Story 83: The Android Invasion, as well as smaller releases like Higher Ground on Blu-ray Combo Pack. Unfortunately, it's not a particularly deep week for releases, and it isn't long before we start getting to DVDs and Blu-rays that would be ignored during a typically busy week. Not only that, but I'm still waiting for screeners for a number of bigger releases. One of these, Boardwalk Empire: Season One on Blu-ray, is the most likely candidate for Pick of the Week.
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January 5th, 2012
The latest round of major nominations were released today with the WGA nominations. Like much of the rest of the previous announcements, the only surprise was the lack of surprises. Four of the five Original Screenplays earned other nominations in that category or other guild nominations. That number rises to five out of five for Adapted Screenplays. There's little doubt about what films are Oscar contenders at this point. The Documentary films category is a little more contentious, but it usually is.
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January 4th, 2012
The nominees for this year's Producers Guild of America were announced and there were not a lot of surprises. For instance, nine of the ten nominees for Theatrical Motion Pictures also earned Golden Globe Nominations for either Best Drama or Best Musical / Comedy. Four of the five Animated films also did the same. It does make the Awards Season picture a lot clearer going forward, but it makes coming up with something to say much harder.
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December 16th, 2011
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the Awards Season picture started to look a whole lot clearer. The Artist led the way with six nominations, while The Descendents and The Help were right behind with five apiece.
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December 15th, 2011
The SAG nominations were handed out this week, and while The Help led the way with four nods, it wasn't the only film that earned multiple nominations.
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October 10th, 2011
October started out with mixed results and it seems for every bit of good news there was equal and opposite bad news. Real Steel topped expectations, but Ides of March did not. The overall box office slipped by 4% from last weekend to $95 million, but it was higher than the same weekend last year. Growth was under 2%, meaning ticket sales were weaker. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010, but the gap was narrowed to 3% at $8.11 billion to $8.39 billion. There's still a chance we can catch up, but we are running out of time and can't afford any missteps.
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October 6th, 2011
September was a good month and 2011 was able to close the gap with 2010 by $60 million; however, it is still close to $300 million behind last year's pace. This weekend we could see that gap close a little further. There's only one wide release, Real Steel, but it should be bigger than any of last year's three wide releases. In fact, there's a tiny, but statistically significant, chance it could earn more during its opening weekend than the combined opening weekends of Life as We Know It, Secretariat, and My Soul to Take. Ides of March won't be as strong, but it should play counter-programming well enough to grab a solid second place. If the holdovers can hold their own, then the month should start off on a winning note.
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October 3rd, 2011
It was a good news / bad news weekend and the box office. First the bad news. Only one of the four new wide releases made any real impact and this led to a 16% drop-off from last weekend to just $99 million. The good news is that's still 4% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010 by 3% at $7.99 billion to $8.27 billion, but at least there's a little hope left that we can turn things around, if October beats expectations.
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October 2nd, 2011
The industry's slow period in September and October is traditionally a dumping ground for films that the studios would rather forget, but it also presents an opportunity for movies that would otherwise be swamped by the competition at busier times of year. This weekend provides a perfect example of this phenomenon, with two pictures aimed at church-going families coming out the big winners. Dolphin Tale dropped just 25% in its second weekend to jump from third to first on the chart, overtaking Moneyball, which had a good second weekend (down 35% to $12.5 million) and The Lion King, which ran out of steam a bit, but still crossed $400 million at the box office. But the bigger surprise was the $8.8 million opening for Courageous from what must have been 1,161 carefully-chosen theaters. Its $7,580 per theater average comfortably tops the list among wide releases.
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September 29th, 2011
It's another busy week with three wide releases, plus another opening in just over 1,000 theaters, which is barely semi-wide. The widest release is What's Your Number?, but romantic comedies rarely have breakout success. The best-reviewed is 50/50, but its subject matter might make it hard to sell to audiences. Meanwhile, Dream House had an effective trailer, but there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Courageous should grab a spot in the top ten, but it is not a sure bet. Unfortunately for the year-on-year comparison, none of the new releases look as strong as The Social Network, which opened this weekend last year. In fact, there's a slim chance all four of this year's wide release combined won't match The Social Network's $22.45 million. On the other hand, three of the four could crack $10 million, plus there are three holdovers that could do the same. Depth could be the key to victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 27th, 2011
The winners of our The Last Straw contest were determined and they are...
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September 26th, 2011
It was a very good weekend at the box office, compared to the average for this time of year. None of the four wide releases were real bombs, although a couple opened soft, they were within the range of expectations. Also, The Lion King held on even better than expected leading the way for the second weekend in a row. This helped the film grow just over 16% from last weekend to $117 million. More importantly, the overall box office was close to 17% higher than this weekend last year. Not only did The Lion King top Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps's opening, so did Moneyball and Dolphin Tale. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010 by 4% at $7.85 billion to $8.14 billion, but a few more wins like this and that gap will start to close.
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September 25th, 2011
In a surprisingly strong weekend for September, The Lion King will enjoy a second weekend at the top of the chart, although only by a narrow margin over new entries Moneyball and Dolphin Tale. Disney's animated classic will take in about $22 million this weekend, and now looks set to pass $400 million in lifetime domestic box office before its theatrical run is over, and it has a shot at topping Spider-Man to take a place in the all-time top 10.
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September 22nd, 2011
It's a busy week with four wide releases, including two that are opening at saturation level theater counts. With such a lot of competition, there's little chance all four will find a sizable audience this weekend. In fact, there's a chance none of them will be able to top The Lion King, leaving it on top for the second weekend in a row. If that happens, there's no telling how many classic films will get a 3D conversion. As for which release have the best shot at becoming the new box office king, Moneyball seems to be the consensus pick, but there is some debate as to how well the new releases will do. There's also some debate as to how well the overall box office will do compared to last year. There's a 50-50 chance the number one film this year will top Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, which earned just over $19 million last year, while the depth is a little better this year.
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September 16th, 2011
Early estimates for next week has all four wide releases opening in 3,000 theaters, plus or minus 100. Obviously the studios have high hopes for these films, but odds are only one or two of them will have any real impact at the box office. Paradoxically, while Moneyball could open in the fewest theaters, it has the best shot at the top of the box office. I certainly doubt any film will top its reviews. Regardless of the accuracy of this early prediction, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Moneyball.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Straw Dogs on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Dressed to Kill on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 1st, 2011
After a strong start, August ended on a really low note, and that's bad news for September, as it means the positive momentum we had is gone. Looking at the upcoming month, there are 18 films opening wide over five weekends (including one re-release) but only four or five of them have a real shot at being midlevel hits, and it is unlikely that all of them will get there. Worse still, there are no films opening this month that look like they will match The Town, which made more than $90 million last September. In fact, the selection of releases is so weak that the film I'm most looking forward to is a limited release that has already come out on Video on Demand, Tucker and Dale vs. Evil. (It has seventeen reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and still not a negative one among them.)
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