Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend estimates: Tenet still top, reaches $300 million worldwide, Hocus Pocus surprises

October 4th, 2020

The best that can be said about this weekend at the box office is that a movie is doing better than expected. However, to put that in perspective, the movie in question is a re-release of a film that opened in fourth place back in 1993, and earned four times as much on its original opening weekend (when ticket prices were less than half what they are now) as it did this weekend. The movie, of course, is Hocus Pocus, and its $1.925 million weekend is a welcome surprise for a film that will presumably be drawing more of a family audience than the other films in release right now (Disney has not reported any demographic information for the film). More...

Weekend estimates: Tenet leads lackluster weekend

September 27th, 2020

This was never going to be a weekend for the record books, but the estimates released on Sunday morning reveal a theatrical market that’s barely clinging to life. With no major new releases, Tenet will win by default, but its $3.4 million projected weekend is down 28% from last time around, and the market as a whole looks as though it has weakened by about 20% in the last seven days. The biggest new release of the weekend is almost certainly Break the Silence: The Movie, which is rumored to have opened with around $1 million, putting it in a tie for third with Unhinged. The New Mutants remains in second place, with Disney projecting $1.147 million for the weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Infidel posts solid opening, under the circumstances

September 20th, 2020

It looks as though we’ll have another down weekend for total domestic box office, with perhaps $11 million in combined ticket sales for all movies, compared to $12.3 million last weekend, but there are a few small grains of good news to be found. Infidel topped (very modest) expectations, with a projected opening of $1.5 million, and the four other films still playing in wide release that have reported so far all had relatively good holds by historical standards. Tenet hit the $250 million mark worldwide, but Mulan continues to struggle.

Here are the details… More...

Weekend estimates: Mulan posts disappointing $23.2 million opening in China, Tenet crosses $200 million worldwide

September 13th, 2020

The return of major new theatrical releases in the United States is great news for the industry, but this past few days have shown just how tough it will be to recover from the effects of the pandemic. After Tenet’s seemingly not-too-good, not-too-bad opening last weekend, two studios revealed what they really thought at end of the week, with Warner Bros. pushing Wonder Woman 1984 back to December 25, and Universal shifting Candyman to sometime in 2021. Clearly business isn’t good enough (yet) to support movies that could be very profitable under normal circumstances.

Warner Bros. and Universal do earn some credit for sticking with a theatrical strategy for the films, at least for now. Disney, meanwhile, have (amongst other things) been criticized for releasing Mulan on Disney+ here in the United States, and didn’t get the best of news this weekend for their international theatrical strategy, as the film rolled out in China with a modest $23.2 million.

New numbers for Tenet, and an opening weekend estimate for The Broken Hearts Gallery also give us new insight into progress in the domestic market.

Here’s a round-up of the weekend numbers released so far. More...

Mulan and I’m Thinking of Ending Things Give People Reasons to Stay Home

September 4th, 2020

This year’s Labor Day weekend in the United States may prove to be historic. While Warner Bros. tests the viability of the theatrical market with a novel release strategy for Tenet, Disney is seeing how far it can get when it eschews theaters altogether with the Premium VOD release of Mulan on Disney+.

While it’s not in the same league as those $200-million behemoths, Charlie Kaufman’s psychological horror movie I’m Thinking of Ending Things provides some counter-programming, and is significant in its own right as part of another trend in the industry: major art-house film-makers finding a home in the home market. More...

VOD Releases: Horror Films are Out for Blood

September 3rd, 2020

It’s a busy week on VOD, especially if you are a fan of horror. Blood Quantum, Followed, and Z are all worth checking out. There are also some smaller horror releases or ones with weaker reviews that might be worth it for more hardcore fans. If you are not a fan of horror, then The Wind Rises is your best bet. More...

International Round Up: Deliver Us from Box Office Doldrums

August 13th, 2020

South Korea had an explosive weekend with Deliver Us From Evil earning the best opening in that market since January. The film pulled in $10.59 million on 1,997 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.03 million. There is still some bad news in the market though. For instance, Steel Rain 2: Summit fell 70% from last weekend to $1.49 million on 1,016 screens for a total of $10.74 million so far. Peninsula fell a further 67% to $748,000 on 639 screens for a total of $27.08 million after four weeks of release. These are sharp declines, even for South Korea, which isn’t known for long legs. That said, they are not a disaster. Additionally, while the overall box office is only about half of what it was this weekend last year, there are still restrictions in seating capacity in theaters and the lack of depth are still factors, so it appears the box office is in shape to truly bounce back once the situation has returned to normal. More...

2020 Preview: March

March 1st, 2020

The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last March Captain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January. More...

Mulan Super Bowl Trailer

February 4th, 2020

Historical adventure starring Liu Yifei opens March 27 ... Full Movie Details.

The eldest daughter of an honored warrior, Hua Mulan is spirited, determined and quick on her feet. When the Emperor issues a decree that one man per family must serve in the Imperial Army, she steps in to take the place of her ailing father as Hua Jun, becoming one of China’s greatest warriors ever. More...

Mulan Trailer

December 5th, 2019

Historical adventure starring Liu Yifei opens March 27 ... Full Movie Details.

The eldest daughter of an honored warrior, Hua Mulan is spirited, determined and quick on her feet. When the Emperor issues a decree that one man per family must serve in the Imperial Army, she steps in to take the place of her ailing father as Hua Jun, becoming one of China’s greatest warriors ever. More...

Mulan Teaser Trailer

July 9th, 2019

Historical adventure starring Liu Yifei opens March 27, 2020 ... Full Movie Details.

The eldest daughter of an honored warrior, Hua Mulan is spirited, determined and quick on her feet. When the Emperor issues a decree that one man per family must serve in the Imperial Army, she steps in to take the place of her ailing father as Hua Jun, becoming one of China’s greatest warriors ever. More...