November 26th, 2014
This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the Halloween Box Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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September 23rd, 2014
This is both a great week on the home market, as well as an amazing week on the home market. There are by my count, at least a dozen releases that could be considered must haves or perfect Christmas gifts, which is great. What makes it amazing is the lack of filler. There are a couple of weak releases here and there, but the hit to miss ratio is as good as I can remember. The biggest release of the week, according to Amazon.com, is the Halloween Complete Collection, but it is not the best release. Contenders for Pick of the Week include a couple of limited releases: Ida - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray and We Are the Best! - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. However, in the end I went with a TV on DVD release, Modern Family: Season Five - Buy from Amazon: DVD.
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September 22nd, 2014
This summer was terrible at the box office with no $250 million hits throughout the summer until Guardians of the Galaxy opened in August. That said, there were a number of smaller movies that did quite well at the box office. Neighbors, for instance, cost less than $20 million to make, but pulled in $150 million at the box office. Was it a hit because of its quality? Or did it benefit from the weakness in the tentpole releases?
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June 4th, 2014
Maleficent opened on top of the international chart with $106.1 million in 47 markets, making it the latest movie to open with more than $100 million on the international chart. The film opened in a number of major markets, but individual results were mixed. The film opened in first place in Mexico with $14.05 million on 2,892 screens and in Russia with $13.06 million on 1,733 screens. In the U.K. it pulled in $11.04 million on 486 screens. It didn't crack $10 million, but did earn first place in Italy ($5.87 million on 650 screens); in Brazil ($5.63 million on 452); and in Germany ($4.87 million on 525 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.26 million); and Spain ($4.29 million on 625). It had to settle for second place in Australia with $3.76 million on 530 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.90 million. It only managed third place in France ($5.01 million on 550 screens) and in South Korea ($3.38 million on 631 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.81 million). The film has yet to open in China and Japan and given this start, it should reach $500 million worldwide before it is done.
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June 2nd, 2014
It was a mostly good weekend at the box office with Maleficent earning first place with nearly $70 million, which was on the very high end of expectations. On the other hand, A Million Ways to Die in the West failed to match the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office pulled in $165 million, which is 11% lower than last weekend. That's not bad for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was higher, albeit by 0.6%, which is much lower than ticket price inflation. Considering I thought it would be worse than this, I'm calling a 0.6% increase a victory. Year-to-date, 2014 remains ahead of 2013, but by $133 million or 3.3% at $4.16 billion to $4.02 billion. If June is as bad as May, then 2014 could slip behind 2013 entirely.
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May 29th, 2014
The weekend after a long weekend is never the best time of year to release a new movie, but at this point, summer vacation has begun for a lot of people, so both new releases should still have a lot of potential at the box office. Maleficent is the origin story for the villain from Sleeping Beauty. It should earn first place with ease. A Million Ways to Die in the West is the latest from Seth MacFarlane, but it is not earning as much praise as Ted did and its box office chances are not as strong as a result. The box office will certainly be lower than it was last weekend. However, we are more concerned with the comparison with last year. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Now You See Me and After Earth, but neither opened with more than $30 million. Granted, Fast and Furious 6 earned $35 million over the weekend, but that's still lower than usual for a number one film during summer weekend. The top three films this weekend should be better than the top three films last weekend, but I think 2014's depth will hurt it in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 28th, 2014
X-Men: Days of Future Past dominated the international box office chart with $171.08 million in 71 markets for a total opening of $191.00 million. This includes China, where it earned first place with $39.35 million on 6,000 screens. It also earned first place in the U.K. with $15.39 million on 537 screens, while in South Korea it earned $11.78 million on 1,056 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $14.15 million. Mexico contributed $9.39 million on 3,034 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.02 million. The film's debut in Russia was very similar with $9.90 million on 2,230 screens. France was right behind with $9.29 million on 620 screens, while in Brazil it pulled in $8.38 million on 507. The film earned $7.80 million on 684 screens in Australia. It struggled a little more in Germany and Spain with $4.03 million on 579 screens and $3.19 million on 650 respectively.
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May 27th, 2014
X-Men: Days of Future Past easily won the weekend race at the box office earning more than $100 million over the four-day weekend. That's great news and it helped the overall box office grow by 5% to $187 million over the three-day weekend from last week. That's the good news. The bad news the other new release, Blended, bombed and the three-day weekend was down 27% from the same weekend last year. In fact, this year's four-day weekend total of $231 million was 9% lower than last year's three-day total and 26% lower than the four-day weekend from last year. That's a devastating collapse. The only saving grace is last year was a record-breaking Memorial Day long weekend, so a sharp drop-off isn't that unexpected. So far, 2014 has pulled in $3.95 billion, which is 4% more than 2013's running tally of $3.80 billion.
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May 22nd, 2014
It is Memorial Day long weekend and the box office is looking strong. X-Men: Days of Future Past should dominate the box office chart and there are some who think it will have the best opening of the year so far. Blended is playing the role of counter-programing this week and should do well in that role opening in third place. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five will be filled with Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2, all of which should still pull in $10 million or more. By comparison, this weekend last year, there were six films that earned more than $10 million over the four-day weekend, led by Fast and Furious 6, which earned a four-day opening of $117.04 million There are some who think X-Men: Days of Future Past will top that figure. I really hope so. However, even if it does, last year was a record-breaking Memorial Day long weekend and I don't think 2014 will match it.
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May 21st, 2014
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Godzilla got off to a milestone start on the international market earning $103.0 million on 16,946 screens in 64 markets during its first weekend of release. It was able to dominate the box office thanks to a string of first place finishes in most of the major markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where the film pulled in $10.73 million on 550 screens, while Russia was close behind with $8.65 million on 1,814 screens. The film was surprisingly strong in Mexico, pulling in $7.21 million on 2,494 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.57 million. It was also strong in Australia with $6.34 million on 498 screens and in France with $5.73 million on 596. The film earned $4.97 million on 584 screens over the weekend in Germany for a total opening in that market of $5.50 million. Brazil was a strong market for Godzilla, as it opened with $4.07 million on 417 screens there. The film's opening in South Korea was nearly the same with $3.65 million on 610 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.37 million. Italy was next with $3.55 million on 692 screens. Finally, the film was soft in Spain with an opening of $1.29 million on 427 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.55 million, but this was still enough for first place there. Overall, it wasn't as strong internationally as it was domestically, relative to the size of the markets, but it is still on pace to break even before it reaches the home market.
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May 20th, 2014
I thought Godzilla would be a monster hit. I mentioned that possibility in the monthly preview and the weekend predictions. However, I was in the minority and I reduced my expectations. That turns out to be a mistake. Godzilla opened with $93.19 million over the weekend, which is a better opening than The Amazing Spider-Man 2 managed, but it wasn't quite up to Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It also helped the overall box office soar to $178 million, which is 30% more than last weekend. More importantly, it was 16% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 is now ahead of 2013 by a margin of $185 million or 5.3% at $3.66 billion to $3.48 billion.
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May 18th, 2014
After a huge start on Friday, estimated at $38.5 million, Godzilla looked as though it might be the first film of 2014 to have a $100 million opening weekend. But the monster movie seems to have run out of energy a little through the weekend, and Warner Bros. is projecting a weekend around $93.2 million, based on figures through Sunday morning. The film’s performance is well ahead of earlier tracking, which pegged its opening around $60 million–$80 million, and impressive for a non-sequel (although clearly Godzilla is a well-established franchise at this point). In fact, it is one of the top 10 non-sequel openers ever (see full list here).
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May 15th, 2014
Godzilla is the second of four May releases that at least have a realistic shot at reaching $200 million domestically. The first of these films, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't match original expectations, but it is still on pace to reach $200 million. It is very unlikely Godzilla will open as fast as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 did, but even coming close would be a huge boost to the box office. Million Dollar Arm should have a respectable opening as counter-programming and on the high end it could land in third place. Meanwhile, Neighbors is aiming for $100 million and while it won't get there this weekend, it will get there soon enough. This weekend last year, Star Trek Into Darkness earned first place with $70.17 million over the weekend, which is a figure I think Godzilla will top. If it does, and the holdovers hold on well, then 2014 might end its mini-losing streak earlier than I thought it would.
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May 14th, 2014
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 remained in first place, but saw its weekend box office haul fall to $71.33 million on 26,694 screens in 91 markets. Its international box office rose to $404.72 million and worldwide it has made $550.93 million. The film will need to make about $200 million to $250 million more at the worldwide box office to break even, which is doable. The film had its first full week in China pulling in $46.45 million over the week for a total of $56.38 million in that market.
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May 14th, 2014
The winners of our Fine China contest were determined and they are...
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May 14th, 2014
It was a good week on the per theater chart with five films in the $10,000 club, led by Chef with an average of $34,160 in six theaters, which is the third best opening average of the year so far. Palo Alto was well back, but was still strong earning an average of $15,865 in four theaters. The overall box office leader, Neighbors, was next with an average of $14,954. There were also a couple of holdovers in the $10,000 club, which is impressive. Ida held on strong earning an average of $12,223 in seven theaters, with room to keep growing. Belle expanded from 4 theaters to 45 theaters, but still managed an average of $10,825. By this time next week, it will have reached its first major milestone, with more to come.
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May 13th, 2014
Neighbors got off to a much faster start than expected, as did many of the top five films. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 fell more than 60% during its sophomore stint, but that was expected, at least it was inline with my expectations. Overall, the box office still fell from last weekend, but by 11% to $137 million, which isn't as bad as it could have been. It was down 14% from the same weekend last year, but that's a huge improvement from what it was last weekend, so in a small way, it is a bit of a victory. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $3.45 billion, putting it 5.4% ahead of 2013's pace. That's down from its peak, but even if 2014 loses next weekend and the weekend after that, 2014 should still remain ahead of last year's pace.
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May 11th, 2014
Comedy triumphs at the box office this weekend, with Neighbors posting an impressive $51 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s the 16th-biggest opening ever for a comedy film (depending somewhat on one’s definition of what constitutes a comedy), and comparable to the debut of Ted (which made $54 million in 2012). It’s also easily Seth Rogen’s best weekend, ahead of the $33.5 million debut for The Green Hornet, and Zac Efron’s best, beating High School Musical: Senior Year.
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May 8th, 2014
It could be an interesting weekend at the box office as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is expected to fall far enough that Neighbors could win the box office race. That certainly would be a boost for the new release's box office chances. Earning first place does provide a lot of free publicity. The other two wide releases coming out this week are not expected to be major players at the box office. I've heard some buzz that Mom's Night Out could be a sleeper hit. On the other hand, Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return might not open above the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Iron Man 3 led the way with $72.53 million, which is more than all three wide releases will make. In fact, last year's second place film, The Great Gatsby earning $50.09 million, which might be more than all three wide releases make this weekend. On the other hand, depth will be better this time around and that should mitigate the situation a little bit.
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May 2nd, 2014
Next weekend there are three films opening wide, but only one of them, Neighbors, is expected to do well. The other two are expected to bomb and bomb hard. Because of that, there is really only one choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Neighbors.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of China Beach: Season 3 on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win China Beach: Season 3 on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 1st, 2014
It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013.
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