November 13th, 2017
It’s a bad week for screeners, as the screeners for both Atomic Blonde and Wind River are late. Both look like they are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week material. There are a trio of contenders for this award: In This Corner of the World, Kedi, and Whose Streets? It was a close call, but in the end, Kedi came out on top.
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October 31st, 2017
It’s Halloween, so most people are concerned with how much Halloween candy they can eat before there’s not enough for trick or treaters, so they are not paying attention to new home market releases. At least I assume that’s why there are so few top-notch releases on this week’s list. The Dark Tower is the biggest release of the week, but it is not worth renting, and it is certainly not a Pick of the Week contender. So what is the Pick of the Week? There’s not a lot of competition, but I think any film history bull will love Dawson City: Frozen Time on DVD or Blu-ray.
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September 20th, 2017
Brad’s Status led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $22,480 in four theaters. It was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $14,490. The only other member of the $10,000 was Ex Libris: The New York Public Library, which earned $10,926 in one theater over the weekend and $16,308 from Wednesday through Sunday. It won’t expand significantly, because it is a documentary, but the distributor should be very happy with this result.
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August 22nd, 2017
The summer is over, but The Hitman’s Bodyguard did well for this time of year earning $21.38 million over the weekend. Logan Lucky was well back opening with just $7.60 million. Overall, the box office fell 18% from last week to just $96 million. This is also 27% lower than the same weekend last year. The top two films this year actually did better than the top two films earned last year, but the depth was just terrible. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.21 billion, putting it $430 million or 5.6% lower than last year’s pace.
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August 17th, 2017
There are a couple of new releases coming out in wide release: The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. The two films have vastly different Tomatometer Scores, but similar box office potentials. Unfortunately, neither is expected to become a hit and there’s a chance whichever of them earns first place will do so with the lowest box office result of the year so far, currently held by Split’s third weekend of release. If the yearly low record isn’t broken this weekend, it will almost certainly be broken next weekend. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad earned first place with just over $20 million. This is more than any one film will make this weekend. Additionally, there were six films that earned $10 million or more last year, while there are only three that have a shot at that milestone this week. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 yet again.
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August 15th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation’s opening saved summer for one week, but that’s the practically the only good news we have to talk about this weekend. The film pulled in $35.01 million, which is over three times its nearest competition. That’s the bad news. The depth this past weekend was terrible, as there were only two films with more than $10 million, compared to five films last weekend. The overall box office fell 4.6% to just $117 million. Worse still, this is 32% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is behind 2016 by $360 million or 4.9% at $7.07 billion to $7.43 billion. The year has lost over $500 million compared to last year’s pace during summer alone. This is a disaster.
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August 13th, 2017
After a series of lackluster weekends at the box office, Annabelle: Creation is doing its bit to clear away the end-of-Summertime blues with a $35 million opening this weekend. That’s right in line with the $37 million Annabelle opened with three years ago, which is an impressive performance for a horror franchise. It’s also the best opening for a horror movie since Split’s $40 million start back in January. The first film in the franchise fell away quite rapidly, and ended up with $84 million in total, so a final total of over $100 million is far from assured, but with a production budget of only $15 million, and probably not much more than $20 million in marketing, this should be a highly profitable movie for Warner Bros., especially since the franchise is popular globally.
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August 12th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation dominated the box office on Friday with $15 million. This is likely more than any other film will earn over the full weekend. As for its box office chances going forward, the film has earned 68% positive reviews and grabbed a B from CinemaScore. Horror films tend to struggle when it comes to CinemaScore, so a B isn’t a bad result and the film’s legs should be no worse than average for a horror movie as a result. Look for about $37 million over the weekend, which could be enough to get to $100 million domestically. It depends on how strong the competition is for the next few weeks.
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August 11th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation needed a $3 million during its previews to have a chance at saving the summer, and even then it would need better than average legs for the genre to hit $30 million during its opening weekend. Fortunately, it earned $4 million in previews. This is more than twice as much as Don’t Breathe and Lights Out earned this time last year; however, those two films were not sequels and sequels tend to have shorter legs. Annabelle’s reviews are 68% positive at the moment, which is good enough for this time of year. At this point, opening with more than $30 million is a safe bet, while $35 million to $40 million isn’t out of the question.
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August 10th, 2017
Unless Annabelle: Creation is a $30 million hit, it is safe to say summer ended a couple of weeks ago. The film has about a 50/50 chance of getting there. The Nut Job: Nutty by Nature is widely expected set a record this week, but not a good one. Finally there’s The Glass Castle, which is only opening semi-wide. Overall, the box office looks weak compared to this weekend last year. Sausage Party opened with $34.26 million, which is more than any film this year will make. Worse still, Suicide Squad won the weekend with $43.54 million. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 in the year-over-year comparison by at least $43.54 million.
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August 8th, 2017
The Dark Tower opened on the very low end of expectation with just $19.15 million over the weekend. The rest of the box office was more or less in line with predictions, leading to a $122 million haul, which is a 15% decline from last weekend. A 15% decline is pretty normal this time of year. What isn’t normal is a decline of 47% from last year; a year-over-year decline like that normally only happens when there’s a misalignment in holiday, but it wasn’t a surprise, as Suicide Squad earned more last year than the entire box office earned this year. 2017 was already behind 2016’s pace by a large amount, but that deficit more than doubled from last weekend and is now $270 million or 3.8% at $6.89 billion to $7.17 billion. Remember, 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, so the summer has been a disaster at the box office.
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August 4th, 2017
There are two wide releases next weekend. (As expected, The Glass Castle is opening semi-wide.) Even if Annabelle: Creation and The Nut Job: Nutty by Nature had the same overall box office potential, Annabelle: Creation would win the weekend, as horror films are historically more front-loaded than family films are. Because of this, it is the best choice for the the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. We are using “Go Nuts” as the name of the Contest, because it is funnier. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Annabelle: Creation.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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August 1st, 2017
July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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