October 8th, 2013
There are a couple first-run releases on this week's list: After Earth and The Hangover: Part III. However, neither film won over critics and both bombed in theaters, when compared to their production budgets. That said, The Hangover: Part III will likely be the best selling release of the week. As for the best new release, including a number where I'm still waiting for the screener. Ignoring those, the two best are Robot Chicken: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray and Much Ado About Nothing on DVD or Blu-ray. Both are must haves, but I'm going with the latter over the former for Pick of the Week.
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July 25th, 2013
It's the final weekend of July and there is only one wide release to deal with, The Wolverine. It should be the easy winner of the weekend, it might pull in enough to become the biggest opening weekend of the month. This isn't likely, but there is a slim chance. There is one other film that might make an appearance in the top ten, The To Do List. Again, it doesn't have a strong chance, but it could happen. The holdovers should be far behind The Wolverine, as only The Conjuring has a shot at $20 million. This weekend last year, both new releases bombed, which is good news for 2013 in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, The Dark Knight Rises took in $62.10 million, which is something The Wolverine should have no trouble topping, while the holdovers should provide more depth.
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July 18th, 2013
There are four new releases coming out this week, but there is a wide range of predictions for some of these films. Turbo opened on Wednesday to mostly good reviews and some think it will earn first place over the weekend. Red 2's early reviews are weaker than anticipated, but it still has an impressive cast and could come out on top. The Conjuring is earning some of the best reviews of any wide release opening this summer. It is a horror film and those rarely open in first place in the summer, but the buzz is growing and it could be a surprise hit. Then there's R.I.P.D., which has bad buzz and no reviews. It will likely not make the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend The Dark Knight Rises opened and there's no chance 2013 will come out on top on the year-over-year comparison. In fact, the total box office this year might be lower than The Dark Knight Rises opening alone.
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June 17th, 2013
It was a very good week at the box office with Man of Steel breaking the record for biggest June weekend topping Toy Story 3 by more than $6 million. Nearly every film in the top five matched or beat expectations, which helped the overall box office reach $204 million. This was 37% higher than last weekend and 57% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 is still behind 2012, but is has closed the gap to $150 million, or 3.1%, at $4.56 billion to $4.71 billion.
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June 13th, 2013
This week one of the biggest movies of the summer is coming out. Man of Steel is the latest film in the longest running super hero franchises of all time. Granted, Superman hasn't always been overly popular with moviegoers or critics, but it should still sell lots of tickets. This is the End is the counter-programming for the week, and it has a lot of popular actors and the reviews are strong, but it opened on Wednesday, so its weekend numbers will be softer as a result. Last year the box office was led by Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted and Prometheus, both of which were in their second weekend of release. The new releases were Rock of Ages and That's My Boy, both of which bombed. I foresee a victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 12th, 2013
The winner of our Binge and Purge contest was determined and it is...
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June 12th, 2013
Much Ado About Nothing lived up to the hype earning first place on the per theater chart with an average of $34,388 in five theaters. This is enough to suggest significant expansion, but I think it is too "art house" to expand even semi-wide. Dirty Wars opened in second place with an average of $15,876 in four theaters. This is an excellent start for a documentary. The overall box office leader, The Purge, earned third place with an average of $13,430. The final film in the $10,000 club was Before Midnight with an average of $10,123 in 52 theaters during its third weekend of release.
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June 10th, 2013
We have a good news / bad news situation. The good news is The Purge crushed expectations and dominated the box office over the weekend. Additionally, nearly every film in the top ten held on better than expected. The bad new is... it still wasn't enough. The overall box office fell 9% from last weekend to $149 million. Worse still, this was 18% lower than the same weekend last year. This is terrible, but fortunately things should turn around next weekend.
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June 9th, 2013
Coming into this weekend, Universal was already celebrating above-expectations performances this year for their releases Fast and Furious 6, Identity Thief and Mama, but those three successes have been eclipsed by a big surprise in the opening weekend for The Purge. The home invasion movie, made for just $3 million, will top the chart this weekend with an estimated $36.4 million, blowing past all expectations, and putting it on par with big budget movies like Oblivion. Doing so from a modest 2,536 theaters (and with a correspondingly low marketing budget) makes the victory even sweeter for the studio, which now boasts a 15% market share for the year. If it keeps going at this pace, Universal will have its best year since we started keeping records in 1995.
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June 6th, 2013
The first weekend in June is also the slowest weekend in June as far as wide releases go. Neither The Internship nor The Purge are likely to become more than midlevel hits. Even so, one of them should finish in first place, ending Fast and Furious 6's two-week run on top. Last year there were two major releases, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted and Prometheus earned more than $50 million during their opening weekend. Neither new release will match that figure. They won't make that much combined over the weekend.
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June 2nd, 2013
May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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May 31st, 2013
There are two wide releases coming out next week: The Internship and The Purge. I'm not sure which one will have the better start and I was going to flip a coin to determine the target movie for this weeks' box office prediction contest, but I couldn't find a coin. ... So I'm picking The Purge. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Purge.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not , will win a copy of Space Warriors on Blu-ray. (The link is to the DVD, because the Blu-ray is a Walmart exclusive.)
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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